31–40 of 73 posts
I think someone should set up a SPV to tokenize the spacex shares it has to offer it to people outside of the united states...that would be fun.
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No, you aren't. Revenue is projected to be 3 billion this year, projected to be 10 billion by 2025. You also get Starlink with it, which is valued at 10 billion by itself. At 10x revenue, it is valued similar to Facebook, Microsoft and Google.
Facebook, Microsoft, and Google are so valuable because their marginal costs are 0. SpaceX Won't be worth 10x revenue. Companies in capital intense industries with high variable costs have caps less than 5x revenue, with 2x being common.
What is the global spend on space launches annually? $5 billion maybe? And not growing very quickly, if at all. And most of that market is inaccessible because many of the biggest space agencies prefer to keep things in-house, even if it means a worse product at a higher cost.
It's such a shame this company is not traded publicly. I would be willing to risk a couple of thousand of euros and bet on them being successful in the long run. A company like this has nearly infinite potential for growth.
Being publicly traded means they're at the whim of short term investors.
Other examples are Uber, DoorDash, Lucid Motors, etc... money losing companies with nosebleed valuations because investors believe in the long term.
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At a 100B valuation you'd be kinda late to the party. Non-SaaS, non-tech platforms and non-biotech companies have a really hard marketcap ceiling. SpaceX builds stuff in the real world, macrostuff with millions of moving parts, that's like black death for economic margins, they also aim to go into an environment such as space which is very hard and has slapped us time and time again. There is no convetional ROI for u…
No, you aren't. Revenue is projected to be 3 billion this year, projected to be 10 billion by 2025. You also get Starlink with it, which is valued at 10 billion by itself. At 10x revenue, it is valued similar to Facebook, Microsoft and Google.
Is this at all realistic at this point?
Boeing's market cap is $132 billion, so it's not obviously crazy. They're already the world's cheapest launch provider by a significant margin, and currently the only human-rated private launch company. They've started launching the second-generation Starlink sats, which transfer data directly between each other by laser. If they get approval for the full network, they'll have total bandwidth about equal to the entir…
How are we defining unicorn these days? Surely it's not just private vs public. There are other 100 billion private companies.
is there a precise difference between spacex as a unicorn or just a very valuable private company? Because they are basically a private aerospace firm but I'm not sure whether they're doing anything that distinguishes them as a startup. They are older than say Facebook after all.
At this point, why not throw Koch industries in the list.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Boeing's market cap is $132 billion, so it's not obviously crazy. They're already the world's cheapest launch provider by a significant margin, and currently the only human-rated private launch company. They've started launching the second-generation Starlink sats, which transfer data directly between each other by laser. If they get approval for the full network, they'll have total bandwidth about equal to the entir…
> They're already the world's cheapest launch provider by a significant margin, and currently the only human-rated private launch company. True. But the market is tiny. There have been 114 orbital rocket launches in 2020 [0], 25 of which were SpaceX F9 flights and 14 of them were Starlink deployment missions. This means that currently, SpaceX is its own best customer with more than half of their launches being used t…
Keep in mind the market for automobiles was tiny before the automated production of the Model T, and the market for the personal computer was also tiny before Apple invented it.
Let's not even talk about the smartphone market.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, you aren't. Revenue is projected to be 3 billion this year, projected to be 10 billion by 2025. You also get Starlink with it, which is valued at 10 billion by itself. At 10x revenue, it is valued similar to Facebook, Microsoft and Google.
Facebook, Microsoft, and Google are so valuable because their marginal costs are 0. SpaceX Won't be worth 10x revenue. Companies in capital intense industries with high variable costs have caps less than 5x revenue, with 2x being common.