Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Chinese policy seems cool and calculated. That doesn't mean it's smart. In actuality, China is doing a great job at destroying its reputation around the world and bringing countries together in preparation for a great conflict. Japan is remilitarizing. Australia has awakened to the Chinese threat (when it looked for some time like China could have neutralized it). India is hip to China's aggression. The Quad is exp…
I doubt Japan and Australia can restrain China. I also find it highly unlikely either can afford to take on a multimillion man army that has prepared for at least half a century for this kind of engagement. The amount of casualties in those countries would be crippling in any scenario I can imagine. This pushes me to the conclusion that Taiwan will be reabsorbed by mainland without a bullet being fired.
In modern combat, and for the type of conflict that's coming, a multimillion man army that has virtually no real-world experience matters less than you think.
> I doubt Japan and Australia can restrain China.
It's not going to be just Japan and Australia.
> This pushes me to the conclusion that Taiwan will be reabsorbed by mainland without a bullet being fired.
Interesting language. Taiwan can't be "reabsorbed" because it wasn't a part of China to begin with.
China is going to have to fire more than bullets if it wants to try to take Taiwan.