Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine • Hacker News Board

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#151

Post by tshaddox » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:29 PM UTC

Denvercoder9 wrote: post #101

gorwell wrote: post #59

A lot of comments here asking for specific numbers and making comparisons to other risks. That's exactly how one should be looking at this. What I don't understand is why people don't apply this same critical thought process to the risks of Covid? For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? If you said >50%, you would be in good company. It's the most common answer. But…

> For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? > Risk numbers are totally useless when not stating the time over which the risk is incurred. A 1% lifetime risk is very different from a 1% daily risk. For example, the 0.89% population hospitalization rate in the last 1.5 years for the unvaccinated from the article you linked corresponds to a 38% chance of hospitalization o…

My interpretation of that phrasing is that it refers to the risk of hospitalization from a single infection of COVID-19, so I don't think the time frame matters all that much (other than perhaps much later hospitalizations from long-term effects that we still don't know a lot about yet).

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#152

Post by tw04 » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:29 PM UTC

gorwell wrote: post #59

A lot of comments here asking for specific numbers and making comparisons to other risks. That's exactly how one should be looking at this. What I don't understand is why people don't apply this same critical thought process to the risks of Covid? For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? If you said >50%, you would be in good company. It's the most common answer. But…

There isn't a medical system on planet earth that is prepared or capable of having 1% of their population in the hospital at the same time.

So "Ignoring the massive financial burden on hospitals who are also not financially setup to have the entire hospital full of people sick with COVID - they are bleeding cash without elective surgeries. They can only bleed for so long without significant government intervention. The piddly sums being handed out for COVID patients that all the conspiracy theorists think the hospital is making hay off of is not enough to keep the doors open.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#153

Post by tshaddox » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:31 PM UTC

rohitb91 wrote: post #76

gorwell wrote: post #59

A lot of comments here asking for specific numbers and making comparisons to other risks. That's exactly how one should be looking at this. What I don't understand is why people don't apply this same critical thought process to the risks of Covid? For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? If you said >50%, you would be in good company. It's the most common answer. But…

Or the odds of dying of covid for young people vs a car accident. car accidents are significantly more dangerous. And before people bring up side effects or other long term damage, most people don’t die in car accidents and suffer from ptsd, whiplash, broken bones etc. Yet bring this up and you’re automatically an anti Vaxxer. People are absolutely terrible at evaluating personal risk. One of my coworkers drove acros…

> Yet bring this up and you’re automatically an anti Vaxxer.

I would only make that guess if you brought up car accidents and were opposed to driving test requirements, wearing seat belts, car safety regulations, etc.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#154

Post by floor2 » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:32 PM UTC

noetic_techy wrote: post #110

The problem is that the perception of public trust is eroding significantly the more we learn and the more fervent the mandates become. We pulled the swine flu vaccine for way less back in 2010, I think it was 12 cases of GBS only! The fact that I know of people who have either had mycarditis AND clots tells me the rate is much higher then reported by VAERS. The reason damn near everyone except for adamant anti-vax h…

> let those who want it take the risk

This is the fallacy in your argument. It's an infectious disease that spreads through the air. An infected individual will emit particles of the virus which will cause other people to become sick, permanently disabled or potentially die.

The rules of society are generally built around preventing and minimizing harm to other people. Sometimes that harm is intentional and obvious, like person A punching person B. Many times that harm is unintentional and non-obvious, which is why we need regulations to make buildings have safety-codes for how they're wired to the electric grid or controlling what chemicals can be emitted into the air or groundwater.

We don't let people say "it's my choice to drive drunk at 100mph (160km/h), if you want to drive slower and sober that's your choice" because when a drunk driver kills someone it's obvious to everyone the cause-effect and responsibility. Spreading a disease that kills someone is fundamentally the same thing, it's just not as obviously observable.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#155

Post by Denvercoder9 » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:32 PM UTC

baobabKoodaa wrote: post #145

Denvercoder9 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? > Risk numbers are totally useless when not stating the time over which the risk is incurred. A 1% lifetime risk is very different from a 1% daily risk. For example, the 0.89% population hospitalization rate in the last 1.5 years for the unvaccinated from the article you linked corresponds to a 38% chance of hospitalization o…

>> For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? > Risk numbers are totally useless when not stating the time over which the risk is incurred. A 1% lifetime risk is very different from a 1% daily risk. In this specific case the timeframe is not relevant. The metric here was "probability that you will be hospitalized IF you are infected with COVID-19". That means the timeli…

> The metric here was "probability that you will be hospitalized IF you are infected with COVID-19".

That's a good metric, but it's not the metric the numbers GP quoted were for. Those numbers were for the metric "probability that you would catch COVID-19 and be hospitalized with it over the past 1.5 years". That's fundamentally something different.

What's your alluding to is also known as infection hospitalization rate, and while numbers differ (it's hard to accurately count infections), in the unvaccinated population it's generally somewhere around 5%.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#156

Post by marcus_holmes » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:33 PM UTC

ffs, what have we come to?

This is HN, where smart, educated, science-literate people congregate.

Reading the comments, I'm ashamed of us. We're better than this.

Read the actual f*cking papers people. Not the YouTube videos, not the weird-ass political shit on FB. Not the New York Times, or even Reuters. The actual papers. We've all got SciHub (thankfully!), there's no excuse.

If you don't think you're educated enough to grok the actual studies then you're probably not educated enough to understand the issues, and you probably shouldn't be contradicting the experts.

Unless, of course, you think this is all a conspiracy, in which case I have a bridge to sell you...

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#157

Post by iratewizard » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:33 PM UTC

timothycrosley wrote: post #139

iratewizard wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's my vaccine anecdata. My wife and I are at the age when everyone we know is starting to have kids. My wife and I got pregnant on the first try, and 3 of her other friends had similar easy success. All 4 unvaccinated. On the vaccinated side of her friends there are two miscarriages, one stillbirth, one who has been trying since June, one trying much longer than that, and one that we think has been trying for a w…

While we are sharing meaningless anecdotes, almost everyone I know (since I live in Seattle) has been vaccinated. No one has reported any issues, a couple have since successfully had a child. None have even gotten a breakthrough infection of covid. Among friends I know from back east, who haven't gotten vaccinated, one had just turned 30, only health issue was obesity. He died. One was 35, best shape of any of my fri…

What's the hospitalization rate for 20s - 40s for getting the vaccine? What's the hospitalization rate for covid?

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#158

Post by Denvercoder9 » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:33 PM UTC

tshaddox wrote: post #151

Denvercoder9 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? > Risk numbers are totally useless when not stating the time over which the risk is incurred. A 1% lifetime risk is very different from a 1% daily risk. For example, the 0.89% population hospitalization rate in the last 1.5 years for the unvaccinated from the article you linked corresponds to a 38% chance of hospitalization o…

My interpretation of that phrasing is that it refers to the risk of hospitalization from a single infection of COVID-19, so I don't think the time frame matters all that much (other than perhaps much later hospitalizations from long-term effects that we still don't know a lot about yet).

> My interpretation of that phrasing is that it refers to the risk of hospitalization from a single infection of COVID-19

That interpretation is not supported by the source linked by GP. The risk you allude to (infection hospitalization rate) was generally reported as ~5% (it's probably halved now that half the population is vaccinated). See for example [0], the first Google hit I got, or the CDC COVID tracker [1], where reported hospitalizations divided by reported infections gives 3.6%.

[0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7895685/ [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidvi...

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#159

Post by lightsighter » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:34 PM UTC

georgekv wrote: post #108

From NEJM Israeli study on Pfizer: "In our study, definite or probable cases of myocarditis among persons between the ages of 16 and 19 years within 21 days after the second vaccine dose occurred in approximately 1 of 6637 male recipients and in 1 of 99,853 female recipients." Moderna shot is worse then for boys. What again is the rush to vaccinate the lowest risk age group? https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM…

> What again is the rush to vaccinate the lowest risk age group?

Because they still contribute to chain of transmission to the most vulnerable members of society, likely in a disproportional way since younger members of society tend to socialize more. Fighting a virus is a collective action. In order to stop transmission to the vulnerable members, you need to cut edges along all paths through the graph. Furthermore, additional spread, even among healthy people with no side effects, increases the probability of mutations that lead to more fit variants capable of causing even more sickness and death.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#160

Post by Jensson » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:37 PM UTC

javagram wrote: post #102

sergiotapia wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's heretical to say such things and "anti-science" as branded by the media. The fact that California now wants kids to get the vaccine is bonkers to me. Kids don't even feel this shit if they catch it. Pharmaceutical companies must be paying big bucks to the politicians in that state.

Covid is more dangerous to kids than chicken pox, we still vaccinate kids for chickenpox though. Hundreds of children have died of Covid-19. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Focus-...

Chickenpox vaccine lasts a lifetime, giving it to kids protects them as an adult as well.