How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation • Hacker News Board

Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

#151

Post by _y5hn » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 4:18 AM UTC

mateo411 wrote: post #137

game_the0ry wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Estimates are often, if not always, mistaken as commitments or deadlines This. This is the problem with "estimates." My solution - and this will sound bad - is to over-estimate.

Yes, this is everyone's solution, all the way up the organizational hierarchy. Software Engineer, it will take me 2 weeks. Engineering Manager it will take us 4 weeks. Product Manager it will take them 8 weeks. VP it will be done by the end of next quarter.

And with all the red tape and shifting priorities, they all got it wrong unless scoping down.

Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

#152

Post by _y5hn » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 4:19 AM UTC

brainbag wrote: post #77

myth2018 wrote: post #74

I think it's understandable why programmers dread doing estimates so much. But I believe there are multiple factors contributing to the current overall mess and the guilt should be shared among several areas -- and that includes us. Estimates are often, if not always, mistaken as commitments or deadlines. But we don't do a great job on explaining that estimates are probabilistic by nature, there are risks involved, a…

When I am leading teams, I also ask for a certainty score along with the estimate, then track them together with daily updates. Like all human processes it is not infallible but it allows more reliable planning. I always wish I had a tool that would include this in the estimate process. Hansoft got close but nobody uses it!

Sounds like double down on all the fun!

Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

#153

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Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

#154

Post by dagw » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 10:34 AM UTC

listenallyall wrote: post #141

dagw wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I gotta tell you that unless you're working with absolute bozos, nobody is looking at estimates and saying "oh duh, I am betting the farm this will complete on that date." Happens all the time, and not just by bozos. Sometimes getting paid is entirely dependent on delivering when you said you would. I used to work at an animation studio and one year we worked on a series of Christmas themed TV spots. When we said we…

That's not an estimate, it's a deadline. Different concepts.

Surely a deadline is just an estimate you bet the farm on :)

Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

#155

Post by karthik_cs » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 10:47 AM UTC

alfonsodev wrote: post #31

Not to hijack the conversation, but I though some people interested in replacing estimations could find this useful. In order to replace estimation, we are trying Basecamp's Shapeup language and techniques [1] In a nutshell the thinking is reversed, instead of asking: - "how long would it take to implement X?" you ask: - "how much appetite (in weeks and people involved) do I have for this feature ?" Then you work wit…

We've been using ShapeUp at Zinc Learning Labs for two years now and it has done wonders to our pace and sanity. I wrote about our experience with ShapeUp recently, specifically about moving away from estimation - https://world.hey.com/karthikc/wrestling-with-the-unknown-be...

Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

#156

Post by geon » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 7:04 PM UTC

dagw wrote: post #154

listenallyall wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not an estimate, it's a deadline. Different concepts.

Surely a deadline is just an estimate you bet the farm on :)

No. You would make your own estimation. If the result is November 1, +- 2 days, you can bet the farm. If the result is December 22, +- 14 days, you should pass.

Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

#157

Post by game_the0ry » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 7:05 PM UTC

myth2018 wrote: post #146

game_the0ry wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Estimates are often, if not always, mistaken as commitments or deadlines This. This is the problem with "estimates." My solution - and this will sound bad - is to over-estimate.

I don't judge, and I recur to this solution as well, more often than I'd like to. But it doesn't only sounds bad.. it is bad indeed, for a number of reasons. For instance, work usually expands to spend all the time available. Then, if you estimate a one-month task as four months, you will likely not win three months to spend on other tasks. You'll probably spend the whole four months on a one-month task instead. Anot…

Fair points, but I do not triple my estimations. Its more like added buffer for unforeseen risk. And I am careful to balance my team's well-being with the demands of business.

Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

#158

Post by midrus » Fri, Oct 08, 2021, 6:21 AM UTC

brightball wrote: post #2

I’m a big fan of the Donald Reinertsen approach: measure queue length. Simply track the time to complete each task in the team queue on average, then multiply that by the number of tasks remaining in the queue. Each team will habitually slice things into sizes they feel are appropriate. Rather than investing time to try and fail at accurately estimating each one, simply update your average every time a task is comple…

Probably this works for a large team of tens or hundreds of developers.

On a team of 4 or 5 people, where people go sick, take vacations, leave the company, new members join... each of these events has a big impact on those metrics. Which again, becomes a lot of work and effort wasted.

But yes, probably this is a viable option on larger teams.

Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

#159

Post by groby_b » Fri, Oct 08, 2021, 2:03 PM UTC

e12e wrote: post #128

groby_b wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I gotta tell you that unless you're working with absolute bozos, nobody is looking at estimates and saying "oh duh, I am betting the farm this will complete on that date." Meanwhile, anybody working anywhere close to the retail space fell laughing off their chair. Thanksgiving won't move no matter how much you insult your co-workers. (This is not limited to retail. Many industries have fixed delivery dates and bet…

There's a difference between "it's done now, before Thanksgiving, let's bet the farm on it" and "it might be ready two days before Thanksgiving, let's bet the farm on that "... Ed: that said, given gp quote about working with bozos, there's always that anecdote from the introduction of (2nd éd) of Peopleware, about the deadline being moved, because the project was on track for meeting the original deadline... (March…

The deadline is still immovable. Yes, you've planned with a buffer, but you're still betting the farm that ultimately, it will come out in time to capture that business.

And Black Friday season is large enough (30% of annual retail) that you might well try for a farm-sized bet. Been there. Done that. Had the conversations around risk.

It is both "it must be operational by this day, or huge losses" and "we would rather not ship your effort than ship it between Black Friday and Christmas".

Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

#160

Post by dominuskelvin » Fri, Oct 08, 2021, 8:45 PM UTC

alfonsodev wrote: post #31

Not to hijack the conversation, but I though some people interested in replacing estimations could find this useful. In order to replace estimation, we are trying Basecamp's Shapeup language and techniques [1] In a nutshell the thinking is reversed, instead of asking: - "how long would it take to implement X?" you ask: - "how much appetite (in weeks and people involved) do I have for this feature ?" Then you work wit…

Shape Up is really powerful and cuts straight to the meat of things which is getting things done as opposed to the traditional way of planning and processes greater than actual results. We’ve been using Shape Up for a little over a year at the Sailscasts Company and love every bit of idea in it. I think personally is a lean mean way of getting things done with tangible and measurable results!