Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks • Hacker News Board

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#181

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 6:10 PM UTC

tyrfing wrote: post #87

Factorium wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Life continued as normal in Sweden, Russia, Belarus... the pandemic 'response' was driven by the media and politicians. If there is surge of deaths in nursing homes (typically 50% of COVID deaths), it has no impact on the rest of the economy. Many of those same politicians later benefitted to tune of millions of dollars from advance knowledge of federal bank intervention in markets. If there was no lockdown, this opp…

> If there was no lockdown, this opportunity would not have occurred. There was a clear conflict of interest. Your cited example is from before the WHO even declared a pandemic, and 1 day after the first case of community spread was reported in the US. > Life continued as normal in Sweden, Russia, Belarus... If there is surge of deaths in nursing homes (typically 50% of COVID deaths), it has no impact on the rest of…

[deleted]

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#182

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 6:12 PM UTC

wyager wrote: post #160

CydeWeys wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weird to blame the lockdowns when the real cause was the pandemic. It's not like everyone was going to continually working normally in crowded spaces with people dropping like flies in the hospitals. China especially was hit so incredibly badly in that first wave; it was always gonna go pear-shaped no matter what.

> Weird to blame the lockdowns when the real cause was the pandemic. The lockdowns were the actual proximate cause for most business disruptions. > It's not like everyone was going to continually working normally in crowded spaces with people dropping like flies in the hospitals. People who are employed are usually younger than 65 and therefore were never at significant demographic health risk from coronavirus.

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Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#183

Post by brewdad » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 6:14 PM UTC

kennywinker wrote: post #179

makomk wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not using just in time manufacturing might help with short-term disruptions, but we're approaching the two year point on the pandemic and the associated global disruptions and it's just not realistic to keep enough stock in for that long. The current generation of stuff like CPUs and GPUs hasn't even been released and in production for that long...

My understanding is that the 1st order disruption is long-over. The factories and ports are all back online, etc. two years out all that’s left is the ripple effects of the original ~6 month disturbance. It’s just that those ripples are amplified by the way the supply chain operates (just in time).

So we are at the hoarding toilet paper stage of the crisis? Everyone is ordering as much as they can, so effectively no one actually gets their order filled.

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#184

Post by wyager » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 6:19 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #175

wyager wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No one just "assumes" covid. There were many months where PCR tests were not available to hospitals and the CARES act gave hospitals extra money for covid cases, so hospitals obviously set the policy of “anyone with some covid symptoms is to be considered a covid case”.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-... > The CDC guidance says that officials should report deaths in which the patient tested positive for COVID-19 — or, if a test isn’t available, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.” It further indicates that if a “definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances…

Sounds like you’re agreeing with me?

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#185

Post by ceejayoz » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 6:21 PM UTC

wyager wrote: post #184

ceejayoz wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-... > The CDC guidance says that officials should report deaths in which the patient tested positive for COVID-19 — or, if a test isn’t available, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.” It further indicates that if a “definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances…

Sounds like you’re agreeing with me?

"anyone with some covid symptoms" and "compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty" are not the same thing, no.

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#186

Post by ren_engineer » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 6:44 PM UTC

makomk wrote: post #118

scardycat wrote: post #91

Just in time manufacturing contributes a lot to this shortage. We rely so much on integrated supply chain logistics, the pandemic clearly brought in to focus the "optimizations" of JIT manufacturing. The lack of local supply pools as buffer is so short sighted.

Not using just in time manufacturing might help with short-term disruptions, but we're approaching the two year point on the pandemic and the associated global disruptions and it's just not realistic to keep enough stock in for that long. The current generation of stuff like CPUs and GPUs hasn't even been released and in production for that long...

bullwhip effect, this stuff has been known for decades. Our entire global economy depends on ideal conditions to function properly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#187

Post by OldHand2018 » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 6:45 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #64

Smart business people will take this as a lesson about the dangers of zero-inventory manufacturing. Unscrupulous business people will continue running the business at high risk, knowing that they will probably be gone by the time a problem arises. Very smart leaders will use this as an opportunity to think about how to stop their companies from forgetting someone's involvement with a project or process during interna…

> Smart business people will take this as a lesson about the dangers of zero-inventory manufacturing

I disagree. Something entirely different is going on. Before the pandemic, onshoring of basic components started picking up (Trump's erratic behavior made planning really challenging) but the pandemic kicked it into overdrive (and Biden's policy plans will only increase it).

I know people that are "Tier 3" manufactures - suppliers to the suppliers of the suppliers. They have more business than they can handle and are no longer willing to take on risk from sh*tty customers.

JiT/0-inventory doesn't truly exist - somewhere you have to build enough stock to ensure smooth delivery during line changeovers, shift changes, machine repairs, and all the other completely normal minor "disruptions". It's invisible at the high levels of manufacturing because it's not on your loading dock.

Smart business people will realize that supplier relationships are more important than ever. You have to screw them over less than the other guys or things get really choppy really fast.

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#188

Post by caylus » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 7:04 PM UTC

tablespoon wrote: post #171

mhb wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You also need the ability to raise prices when there are shortages in order to encourage buffering. Unfortunately, the people who like anti-price gouging laws appear to prefer shortages and misallocation of goods.

> You also need the ability to raise prices when there are shortages in order to encourage buffering. No, but I can see how someone would some to that conclusion by thinking narrowly in terms of pop free market dogma. > Unfortunately, the people who like anti-price gouging laws appear to prefer shortages and misallocation of goods. Price gouging is actually a worse misallocation of goods. It's still a shortage , but…

> It's still a shortage, but it just doesn't hit rich people as hard.

It sounds like you're assuming that increases in price don't increase quantity supplied. While this may be true in some contexts (e.g. completely unexpected global crisis), there are many cases in which it does:

- In a local crisis, an increase in price encourages shipping in goods from areas not in crisis. Why would someone take the risk of shipping for the same price they can get elsewhere?

- As the GP mentioned, the ability to raise prices provides an incentive for stockpiling goods. Why would someone incur the expense of maintaining a stockpile in exchange for no benefit in a case where the stockpile is needed?

I'd also argue that it's very unlikely for price increases to render all basic necessities impossible to afford, even for poor people. Consider water - even for someone living in poverty what percent of their budget would you guess is allocated to water? Maybe 5%? So even a doubling of the price of water (for context, price gouging laws typically restrict price increases to around 10%) would only increase that to 10%, leaving plenty of room for them to reallocate not-as-essential parts of their budget. For food perhaps the original percent is higher, but there's much more opportunity to substitute cheaper foods in a crisis situation.

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#189

Post by Qub3d » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 7:05 PM UTC

tablespoon wrote: post #128

Qub3d wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine one end result of this supply squeeze is that a lot of bespoke or legacy parts will be finally removed from designs that have up until now been "good enough". To cite the most common example, vehicle manufacturers' most common supply pain-point is ICs built on a ~200nm process, which was state of the art between 1996-2000. I understand it makes sense to move slower for chips embedded in long-life devices, a…

> To cite the most common example, vehicle manufacturers' most common supply pain-point is ICs built on a ~200nm process, which was state of the art between 1996-2000. I'm a total layman, but that might be misunderstanding "state of the art." Larger feature sizes may be better for their applications if they allow the parts to be more reliable.

I meant the node itself was state of the art. The application reliability is important, but in practice will be balanced against cost of goods -- just like how consumer PCs use non-ECC memory and try to handle it in software (or just decide occasional crashes are acceptable), there would likely be additional failure compensation added in other areas to adjust for otherwise cheaper parts on a smaller process node.

And if you think a car company wouldn't use a less-reliable part because of safety concerns, look at the Pinto: Ford knew it had a tendency to, erm, explode, but calculated paying off lawsuits would be cheaper than fixing the problem. [1]

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Pinto#Cost%E2%80%93benefi...

Re: Lead time for new Intel NIC orders is quoted around 52 weeks

#190

Post by makomk » Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 7:17 PM UTC

kennywinker wrote: post #179

makomk wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not using just in time manufacturing might help with short-term disruptions, but we're approaching the two year point on the pandemic and the associated global disruptions and it's just not realistic to keep enough stock in for that long. The current generation of stuff like CPUs and GPUs hasn't even been released and in production for that long...

My understanding is that the 1st order disruption is long-over. The factories and ports are all back online, etc. two years out all that’s left is the ripple effects of the original ~6 month disturbance. It’s just that those ripples are amplified by the way the supply chain operates (just in time).

The first-order disruption definitely isn't long over - important manufacturing locations like Vietnam and Malaysia were in lockdown until as recently a week or two ago, and I don't think things are back to operating normally there yet Parts of China might still actually be under lockdown right now.