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AI Is No Match for the Quirks of Human Intelligence

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Re: AI Is No Match for the Quirks of Human Intelligence

#11

Post by pjmorris »

leesec wrote: post #8
pjmorris wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a possibly related bet I have with a friend: "If, in ten year's time (from March 2021) self-driven cars outnumber manually-driven cars on the US roadways, I will buy you dinner. (and vice-versa, he buys if they don't.)" I think it's a reasonably harder task than playing chess for assessing whatever it is we mean by 'intelligence' and my bias is that the difficulties remain under-appreciated by the technical op…

That sounds like a commercial acceptance bet rather than a technology one but yeah I would take the same bet. But I'd bet by 2031 driving a car will not be the peak of AI.

I take commercial acceptance as a proxy for the acceptance and practicality of artificial intelligence at the 'everyday' task of driving. I would take the absence of commercial acceptance as evidence that artificial intelligence is not up to the 'everyday' task of driving.

Re: AI Is No Match for the Quirks of Human Intelligence

#13

Post by Retric »

pjmorris wrote: post #6
leesec wrote: post #4

There is nothing special about human intelligence. We will have smarter computers in our life time and I'm willing to place bets.

Here's a possibly related bet I have with a friend: "If, in ten year's time (from March 2021) self-driven cars outnumber manually-driven cars on the US roadways, I will buy you dinner. (and vice-versa, he buys if they don't.)" I think it's a reasonably harder task than playing chess for assessing whatever it is we mean by 'intelligence' and my bias is that the difficulties remain under-appreciated by the technical op…

Not to spoil your fund but the average age of US cars is over 12 years. Edit: Which means you already won as on average cars last 24 years.

Ops nm thought you where for it.

Re: AI Is No Match for the Quirks of Human Intelligence

#14

Post by fastball »

pjmorris wrote: post #11
leesec wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds like a commercial acceptance bet rather than a technology one but yeah I would take the same bet. But I'd bet by 2031 driving a car will not be the peak of AI.

I take commercial acceptance as a proxy for the acceptance and practicality of artificial intelligence at the 'everyday' task of driving. I would take the absence of commercial acceptance as evidence that artificial intelligence is not up to the 'everyday' task of driving.

Momentum is still a thing regardless of where the technology is.

The current fastest production car in the world (and of all time) is an electric car, but most cars are still not electric. That doesn't mean gas cars are "better cars" than electric ones.

Re: AI Is No Match for the Quirks of Human Intelligence

#16

Post by enragedcacti »

pjmorris wrote: post #6
leesec wrote: post #4

There is nothing special about human intelligence. We will have smarter computers in our life time and I'm willing to place bets.

Here's a possibly related bet I have with a friend: "If, in ten year's time (from March 2021) self-driven cars outnumber manually-driven cars on the US roadways, I will buy you dinner. (and vice-versa, he buys if they don't.)" I think it's a reasonably harder task than playing chess for assessing whatever it is we mean by 'intelligence' and my bias is that the difficulties remain under-appreciated by the technical op…

I think you made an insanely good bet considering the average age of all vehicle types in the US except SUVs is greater than 10 years. Even if every new car in the US were fully self driving then it would be a tight bet assuming current trends hold.

https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-truc...

Re: AI Is No Match for the Quirks of Human Intelligence

#17

Post by thedudeabides5 »

leroman wrote: post #15

If you were to postfix any “AI” criticism with “yet”, it would make the point being made more legitimate.. We don’t know what we don’t know..

and while we will certain learn more later, we may never learn it all

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6del%27s_incompleteness_...

Re: AI Is No Match for the Quirks of Human Intelligence

#18

Post by chmsky00 »

drcode wrote: post #3

It's odd to take an anecdote about what a person did thousands of years ago (assuming Archimedes actually existed, I suppose we have decent evidence) and use that as the gold standard for how the human mind functions.

Assuming there is a gold standard for intelligence, acting as if we can replicate what it took a universe millions of years to stumble into, by etching into silicon some algorithms that have meaning to us specifically, then seeing that as an autonomous experience acquiring organism is odd.

Re: AI Is No Match for the Quirks of Human Intelligence

#19

Post by pavlov »

Retric wrote: post #13
pjmorris wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a possibly related bet I have with a friend: "If, in ten year's time (from March 2021) self-driven cars outnumber manually-driven cars on the US roadways, I will buy you dinner. (and vice-versa, he buys if they don't.)" I think it's a reasonably harder task than playing chess for assessing whatever it is we mean by 'intelligence' and my bias is that the difficulties remain under-appreciated by the technical op…

Not to spoil your fund but the average age of US cars is over 12 years. Edit: Which means you already won as on average cars last 24 years. Ops nm thought you where for it.

He’s on the other side of the bet.
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