Live data from Hacker News

Redditors are right about the unfairness of the market

bloomberg.com

221–230 of 233 posts

Re: Redditors are right about the unfairness of the market

#221
post #200
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point the pyramid has to reach a bottom. There is no infinite grown in this universe. Especially not exponential growth. Even if you assume that we'll reach space at some point and infinitely expand into the universe. Resources available to that civilisation will grow at most cubically (based on the fact that our universe has 3 dimensions). That growth is not caused by magic, the reason why you'd still get a…

Whether it's possible to grow forever isn't relevant to whether we can grow for another 10, 100, or 1000 years. At some point the sun is going to burn out, and even further than that the universe is going to reach heat death, but they belong to an entirely different class of problem than where to invest your money to prepare for retirement. The growth of economies doesn't rest solely on forcing enslaved Bangladeshi y…

Yes, there are sustainable factors to economic growth, but that is not where the majority of it comes from, and we (the part of the world where some percentage of the population can invest into stock) have hit the point of too much growth a long time ago.

There is an entire non-profit dedicated to calculating the resource consumption of different countries, based on re-growable biological resources: https://www.footprintnetwork.org/

The entire western world is essentially consuming 2-10x as much per person as the planet can provide for that person. That consumption needs to come at the expense of somebody else, in a zero-sum game.

I'm not saying that technology has hit that hard limit per se, but many technologies are at points of diminishing returns where further advances are possible, but so expensive that they don't increase efficiency. E.g. Combustion engine efficiency, Solar Panel efficiency (price is still going down though luckily), moores law (at least in terms of clock speed, and per transistor costs die to node shrinking), crop growth rate.

The things you listed are great, but they have not been the driving factor behind growth.

Look around, does that look like a planet that got the way it is from boring sustainable growth?

Even the Habor process, has resulted in massive nitrate polution, algea blooms, and reduced biodiversity.

You're not gonna get back from consuming 4x too much, from a few percent here and there.

What I'm saying is that our current notion of economic growth and the idea that with a one time investment, you get an asymptotically infinite and indefinite return on said investment, is unsustainable and explotiative. And that we need to apply different metrics to success, than blindly aiming at growth. E.g. biodiversity, individual free time, children above the poverty line.

A more sustainable model for example for retirement saving is a PAYGO system, like germany has. Everybody receives their fair share from the resources available each year, and you don't need to worry about some burst bubble, or crash, wiping out your lives savings.

Re: Redditors are right about the unfairness of the market

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What assets and performance metrics do you have backing this account worth $100000? From what are you deriving its value? I'm a multi-millionaire and successful businessman, but what does that matter? You can't take the money out regardless if it's backed by anything or not. > What rights and privileges are granted over your bank by owning a portion of this account? You get to vote in a meaningless election.

If you granted me ownership of the account and then denied me access, I could take you to court. Stock ownership is a legal agreement. If the leadership of the corporation doesn't act in the shareholders' best interest, they'll be replaced with someone who does. Stock markets have worked for 400 years. Don't you think that makes it less likely that they're ponzi schemes?

While I, and I'm sure several others have appreciated your point, it's lost on the person you're responding to. It's a fruitless endeavor. They clearly have no understanding of economics or investment finance.

Re: Redditors are right about the unfairness of the market

#223
post #220
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The part I don't understand is how do I translate "ownership in apple" to USD. Obviously I can trade it to someone else, but that's just moving the problem -- eventually someone has to be in the position to actually extract real value out of the stock, in a fashion that correlates to company success. AFAIK dividends aren't an inherit property to a stock (it's a "class" of stock) so that's not fully satisfactory, and…

> eventually someone has to be in the position to actually extract real value out of the stock what is "real" value? If it's cash, then you can either sell the stock itself, to somebody else, which can repeat infinitely as long as the company is a going concern. There's no end - because there's no end to the profits of a company that continue to produce profits. Of course, it might end one day, but it would be the la…

This skips the problem, again. You can trade a sheep as much as you want, between any numbers of investors. But there is some basic value to sheep, because eventually someone is able to convert the sheep into money, with effort time and process (butcher, shear, etc). Extracted Value dependent on market of derivative products, and efficiency of extraction.

A sheep can be used to produce $20 USD, and traders who never see the sheep are simply trading on speculation (how much value the sheep can be extracted for today, how much it might be extracted for tomorrow, how badly will extractors want it, etc). The traders bounce the sheep around willy-nilly but eventually the sheep has a simple answer to “why does anyone value this object in the first place?” — because it can be used to extract more wealth than it costs.

My poop can be speculatively traded infinitely as long it continues to exist. Anything can — it doesn’t matter the subject. But at some point, someone must actually want my poop for non-speculative trading it to have a value to speculate on.

The question that keeps being bypassed is: who is actually in the position to do something productive with an FB stock?

Note: I’m assuming that stocks don’t draw their value from the ether — no one wants stocks as art, at least no more than USD

Re: Redditors are right about the unfairness of the market

#224
post #206
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when the entire market goes up everybody makes "money", that is the definition of not-zero-sum. The fact that many people are competing for a limited quantity of gains is not enough to be a zero sum, the ammount of possible gains need to remain constant.

> when the entire market goes up everybody makes "money" But they don't. They make "potential" money as in "if I sold now, I'd have $x more than before I bought the stock". But if all stock holders actually sold, the price would quickly plummet. So it's not possible to actually realize the full valuation as cash without literally printing money somewhere. I think it's important not to conflate actual and potential va…

> So it's not possible to actually realize the full valuation as cash without literally printing money somewhere.

This is not a downside, clearly (economically speaking) we are much richer compared to few centuries ago, that came out of nowhere.

Re: Redditors are right about the unfairness of the market

#225
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what you meant I wasn't the original poster. It's not very constructive to post that someone is wrong, and not explain why they are wrong. How wrong are they? Nope, just "sniff test". Working from first principles is the only way to get across to someone your mental model, but doing so in a comment is impossible. It would take an entire series of books to fully explain. There are skipped steps, and conversations ar…

> I wasn't the original poster. Yea I saw that after I replied but left it bec you seem to agree with them but didn’t actually explain what they meant. > It's not very constructive to post that someone is wrong, and not explain why they are wrong. How wrong are they You’re right. I should have been clearer. You told an substantiated lie, that’s why you are wrong. Not asking for first principles, just honesty. > Switc…

Let's say before this large coffee with investment money came in, there was 25 individual coffee shops in the city. Let's call them Starbucks. Then this company comes in with economies of scale and is able to sell coffee for 10% cheaper. Their product is more consistent. But there are individual coffee shops that produce higher quality coffee, and others who produce lower quality coffee, and both are more expensive.

If this is your first time in the city, and you don't have any information from friends about the quality of random shops, your going to pick Starbucks. This is the value of a brand. And while they are still competing, everything is all good.

But 5 years later once all of those individual coffee shops have gone out of business, you're left with just Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts. And they don't compete on price. Quality drops.

Each of those 25 shops were doing their own creative thing. They were trying out all sorts of innovations. Some worked, others didn't. Now we have no innovation. The big shops are conservative and move at glacial pace.

As a worker you were helping drive those innovations. You were testing stuff out. Now working at BigCo, you follow orders. You do what the machine tells you to do. If you're working for Uber, you pick people up, follow the route, and drop people off.

---

Here's this question asked on quora: How much does soda cost?[0] This is in no way an authoritative source, but it's a neutral third-party that can at least end the slander that you are operating against me.

The answer they give is that it's fair to say that basically the water and sugar is free, cost is right around $0.10, and after shipping it's about a quarter. So was I wrong by 250%? No, because they don't only offer cans of soda. Most of the soda they sell is at restaurants and all they need to ship is the dry stuff. I figure the $0.10 average is right on the money.

[0]: https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-3...

Re: Redditors are right about the unfairness of the market

#226
post #223
post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> eventually someone has to be in the position to actually extract real value out of the stock what is "real" value? If it's cash, then you can either sell the stock itself, to somebody else, which can repeat infinitely as long as the company is a going concern. There's no end - because there's no end to the profits of a company that continue to produce profits. Of course, it might end one day, but it would be the la…

This skips the problem, again. You can trade a sheep as much as you want, between any numbers of investors. But there is some basic value to sheep, because eventually someone is able to convert the sheep into money, with effort time and process (butcher, shear, etc). Extracted Value dependent on market of derivative products, and efficiency of extraction. A sheep can be used to produce $20 USD, and traders who never…

> do something productive with an FB stock?

facebook itself is doing something productive (as measured by their profit).

The stock of facebook is a pre-requisite for facebook to exist (in the productive form). The stock is not a commodity (like a sheep), which have intrinsic value.

For facebook to produce value, they needed initial capital injection. This capital cannot exist if the stock, and the subsequent trading, doesn't exist.

Re: Redditors are right about the unfairness of the market

#227
post #226
post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This skips the problem, again. You can trade a sheep as much as you want, between any numbers of investors. But there is some basic value to sheep, because eventually someone is able to convert the sheep into money, with effort time and process (butcher, shear, etc). Extracted Value dependent on market of derivative products, and efficiency of extraction. A sheep can be used to produce $20 USD, and traders who never…

> do something productive with an FB stock? facebook itself is doing something productive (as measured by their profit). The stock of facebook is a pre-requisite for facebook to exist (in the productive form). The stock is not a commodity (like a sheep), which have intrinsic value. For facebook to produce value, they needed initial capital injection. This capital cannot exist if the stock, and the subsequent trading,…

Facebook does something productive, but I don’t see how stocks map to that productivity. The only way I really see to take a stock and have it represent actual value, is to plug it into the stock market. But this is just trading between those trading on the potential value of the stock -- not on the value it gives to them (that is, they don't actually want the stock for any purpose but to move it -- they're middlemen).

But if you imagined no stock market existed (you remove the middlemen), then is there any reason for anyone to want stock? That is, at the end of all this stock trading, who actually wants to have an FB stock? It doesn’t appear to me to be the public, or FB itself, or any particular investor. Everyone wants to hold stock, in order to get rid of it later (earning on the arbitrage) — but no one apparently wants it in the first place (it grants no power, potential earnings, and doesn’t really represent anything meaningful AFAICT); this is why the only thing to do with a crashed stock is to wipe your ass with it -- stocks are meaningless without their backing company -- but I'm currently not finding a way to claim that stocks are meaningful even when their company exists!

Currency could be said to be in the same boat, but at least till the gold standard died, at the end of the day USD could be said to be minimally wanted by the Feds — mapping to gold — producing that base value you could further justify trading and speculating on. I suppose I don’t understand what justifies a base value for USD post-gold standard either (it was bootstrapped, and now is self sufficient? Or perhaps because we all assume the feds will always a assign value to it)

Furthermore, because there’s no one who wants a stock in the end, there seems to be no reason for the value of a stock to rise/fall based on company successful — no more reason than my trash should.

AFAICT, its just a happens-to-be — by the powers of god, luck and collective will, stocks have arbitrarily been selected to move with company performance, despite there being no real relationship between the two (the only people who want it more are people who intend to sell it to others who want it more — but you follow the chain through and you can’t find anyone who wants it for any other reason).

And I really want to be convinced “a collective fiction” is not the answer (stocks exist because stocks hold value because stocks exist. Stock value tracks company success, because company success tracks stock value, because stock value tracks company success).

Re: Redditors are right about the unfairness of the market

#228
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Throw people in jail for insider trading. Prosecute it as hard as we prosecute people stealing $2 bags of chips from the grocery store or passing counterfeit $20s. Also, why are government employees accused of malfeasance allowed to quit and not get prosecuted? Why is that even a thing?

Where is the un-corruptible agency that is going to enforce these laws? Someone stealing a bag of chips has no recourse to get out of prosecution. A wealthy insider trader has the resources and influence to reduce or even eliminate any consequences.

It's supposed to be us, by voting out politicians who are dirty. Unfortunately, most of us have been duped into being on some "team," and are willing to ignore the corruption of one team to feel good about pointing out the corruption of the other. Since there are only 2 teams, this works beautifully for the politicians.

It's an endless cycle that needs to be broken, shipped jobs overseas, shrank our already pathetic safety net, gutted middle America, pushed 2 wars and emptied our treasury. Vote out the incumbent every election cycle for 10+ years, and maybe it will fix it.

Re: Redditors are right about the unfairness of the market

#229
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weird, even when I disable uMatrix and Firefox ETP to leave it to just uBlock I get no popups? Maybe they advertise more heavily based on geolocation?

Hm. With (only) uBlock I get a subscription overlay that I can't get to go away, keeping me from reading the article. With uMatrix and uBlock I can read the article, but get the subscription thing at the end of it. (Hi CW! It's Fraggy :))

Heh, hi :D

And I just realized why I didn’t get those: Bypass Paywalls Clean [0] removed the subscription nag and all the popups.

[0]: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/bypass-paywal...

Re: Redditors are right about the unfairness of the market

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you're describing is still zero sum. The share price only went up because there is a bigger fool willing to pay more. New investors are funding old investors' gains. The only part that's not zero sum are the dividends that are paid out. It's kind of all a big Ponzi scheme, just with some dividends thrown in. Well, not counting only paid out dividends, but also dividends that are speculated to be paid out some ti…

A company’s share price can go up for several reasons. The most obvious of which is that a company creates value. Some of that created value (by selling products and services the company creates) is captured by the share price going up. As share prices go up, more people may take notice and realize that company is and has the potential to continually create more and more value and want in. Once a company stops delive…

There is only one reason the share price goes up. And that is when there is more buying than selling pressure.

Now there are many reasons why buying and selling pressure fluctuates. But those don't directly influence price. It's only buying and selling.

Post reply on HN