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Groupon updates IPO filing, admits it's unprofitable

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Re: Groupon updates IPO filing, admits it's unprofitable

#41
post #36
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hundreds of millions of dollars already went to the founders. The only risk is whether they'll be super rich or ultra super rich.

There are more stakeholders in the company than the founders.

Sure, but the founders (and the rest of the board) made the decision not to sell. You can call them fools, but they're laughing all the way to the bank.

Re: Groupon updates IPO filing, admits it's unprofitable

#42
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Revenue per subscriber has absolutely tanked. AKA - people become stale and aren't buying so those marketing costs they were trying to hide as one time subscriber costs are going to be around forever.

I think that would be revenue per customer, which has been pretty steady at around $40/customer/qtr, for the past year. The reason revenue per subscriber has dropped is because the ratio of subscribers to customers has fallen. That is a different problem that they are now signing up people who aren't really interested in buying a coupon.

"That is a different problem that they are now signing up people who aren't really interested in buying a coupon."

If that's true, then they will have a hard time bringing their marketing costs down later.

Re: Groupon updates IPO filing, admits it's unprofitable

#43
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that would be revenue per customer, which has been pretty steady at around $40/customer/qtr, for the past year. The reason revenue per subscriber has dropped is because the ratio of subscribers to customers has fallen. That is a different problem that they are now signing up people who aren't really interested in buying a coupon.

I'm lost at what you're saying. It clearly states revenue per subscriber has dropped off a cliff to $9.

A subscriber is someone that is signed up for emails. A customer is someone that has ever made a purchase. The number of people that have made a purchase is growing, and the amount they buy per quarter has been steady at around $40 for the past year. The number of people that get the emails, but don't buy has been exploding so revenue per person on the email list has been steadily decreasing. You reached the conclusion that they will require more marketing spend based on a decreasing revenue per subscriber. I draw the opposite conclusion, that spending money to get more people to signup for the email list is probably counter productive becuase incremental customers are unlikely to purchase a groupon, and thus marketing expense should reduced. Same data, opposite conclusion.

Re: Groupon updates IPO filing, admits it's unprofitable

#45
post #37

Groupon is a fundamentally bad business and I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot cattle prod. Some say that we know they're not profitable but that's really not the point. By counting customer acquisition as an extraordinary expense they are implying that: 1. The value of that customer is AT LEAST as much the cost of acquisition; and 2. That cost also accounts for the natural loss of customers. This is shady because (I…

There are many of us who have always known groupon was a bad idea. My information comes from all my friends in SF who own businesses that Groupon attempted to solicit.

My friends cupcake shop in union square was asked to sell their cupcakes for 25% of retail and at a loss in a very pushy way by groupon.

I have been on groupon for pretty much since they launched. I have bought in total (1) groupon. And I forgot about it and it expired.

I am not interested in the things they have, which are typically things I would never frequently buy anyway (skydiving, spas etc). Thus, I have never seen it being a place I would spend much money. I haven't logged into it for nearly a year. I stopped all emails way back as well.

Re: Groupon updates IPO filing, admits it's unprofitable

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that would be revenue per customer, which has been pretty steady at around $40/customer/qtr, for the past year. The reason revenue per subscriber has dropped is because the ratio of subscribers to customers has fallen. That is a different problem that they are now signing up people who aren't really interested in buying a coupon.

"That is a different problem that they are now signing up people who aren't really interested in buying a coupon." If that's true, then they will have a hard time bringing their marketing costs down later.

Actually - I think if that is their problem it would be easier. Just stop marketing... new customers aren't worth anything. I, however, think it IS the new customers bringing in the revenue and the old customers not buying anything. They need to keep the marketing up to get the new customers who are new to the fad and buy stuff.

Re: Groupon updates IPO filing, admits it's unprofitable

#47
post #37

Groupon is a fundamentally bad business and I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot cattle prod. Some say that we know they're not profitable but that's really not the point. By counting customer acquisition as an extraordinary expense they are implying that: 1. The value of that customer is AT LEAST as much the cost of acquisition; and 2. That cost also accounts for the natural loss of customers. This is shady because (I…

There are many of us who have always known groupon was a bad idea. My information comes from all my friends in SF who own businesses that Groupon attempted to solicit. My friends cupcake shop in union square was asked to sell their cupcakes for 25% of retail and at a loss in a very pushy way by groupon. I have been on groupon for pretty much since they launched. I have bought in total (1) groupon. And I forgot about…

You might want to look into any class actions against groupon for expiring. California has very favorable gift card laws and I think the court would agree this is a gift card.

Re: Groupon updates IPO filing, admits it's unprofitable

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google's offer was $6B. The IPO is priced at $30B. I am scratching my head how that is the dumbest thing you have ever seen a company do. Ever. I can see the IPO valuation getting cut to a more reasonable $10B, but that is still more than the Google offer.

We'll see.. http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/web-ipos... "Groupon is still effectively insolvent, and without capital infusions is unlikely to exist in 18 months." In my opinion, valuing a company at $10B when they haven't ever shown a net profit is ludicrous.

Are they letting Goldman Sachs handle the IPO?

GS is pretty evil in pushing ridiculous IPO values in order to get their higher cut. Cant wait to see what BS goes on with GS handling Facebooks IPO.

Re: Groupon updates IPO filing, admits it's unprofitable

#49
post #5

Groupon not selling to Google was the dumbest thing I've ever seen a company do. Ever.

It was actually smart. Groupon wanted a hefty break-up $5B fee. Google refused. Groupon must have known that the deal would never pass muster at Google after real number crunching. Hence they refused. With the break-up fee they would have still made like bandits.

Re: Groupon updates IPO filing, admits it's unprofitable

#50
post #37

Groupon is a fundamentally bad business and I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot cattle prod. Some say that we know they're not profitable but that's really not the point. By counting customer acquisition as an extraordinary expense they are implying that: 1. The value of that customer is AT LEAST as much the cost of acquisition; and 2. That cost also accounts for the natural loss of customers. This is shady because (I…

Not only is their accounting on customer acquisition bogus, but how do they possibly value these customers? FTA:

Groupon's subscriber count -- the one Mason says it is spending aggressively to beef up -- now stands at 116 million, up from 83 million at the end of last quarter. Among those subscribers, 23 million have purchased a Groupon at least once.

So they have 116 million "customers," but less than 1 in 5 of those have ever actually purchased a deal?

Plus aren't Groupon's customers really the businesses paying for the Groupons, not the millions of subscribers to their e-mail list that apparently don't even purchase anything from Groupon? Seems to me that the "customers" they're referring to is really the product they're selling, and at a huge loss apparently.

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