The problem is that you're missing guard rails. People know they have to be paranoid, so they move slowly; just like people drive more carefully without seatbelts and ride bicycles more carefully without helmets. Care is good, but does not come without cost.
I think it's hard to measure the impact of not testing, because in order to compare A vs B, you'll have to write tests (and it's a large job to write a test suite for existing code), but that's why it's insidious -- you know writing tests is going to slow you down, and you don't know how much time it's going to save in the long run. You end up with a heavy bias for the status quo. And, if f the tests aren't any good, you'll spend a lot of time writing them and you'll just get friction on future changes, slowing you down even more. But if the tests are good, then people that are new to the codebase can arrive with confidence.
Manual testing is good, but it scales O(n) with the number of features. What works for the simple prototype with two big features quickly becomes a drag when every engineer has to test all 100 features against every change they make. (That's why organizations make some other team do the tests, and then the bug comes back to you 3 weeks later, and then you stop what you're working on to fix the bug you caused -- context switching off of new feature work, and delaying that feature. Slow, and annoying!) The solution to this slowdown is usually more process (if we just write it down, it feels like it's not work) and "we need more engineers". The associated O(1) overhead of new proces plus the O(n!) communication slowdown means that the n in n features to test for every change grows much more slowly -- it's feels under control, but what you're really doing is less work with more resources.
I look at the tricky edge cases in my own work, and look at where the bugs creep in (we do a quarterly review of these), and it's always in the "that's too hard to test" code. Some examples: assuming that the test suite's view of the database is the same as a database without the new migrations applied, simple refactoring leading to null pointer dereferences in an edge case, third party applications that call into the API that "has no users" (according to grep), and things like that. These are the things that burn new team members, and make them overly cautious forever. Caution and velocity are incompatible, so to me, it's crucial that these dark corners get addressed, so a passing test suite means a codebase with only bugs we haven't seen before. (There are always going to be bugs, but you shouldn't fix the same bug twice.)
(Oh, and there are definitely bugs in code with 100% coverage. 100% coverage just means you found the bugs you already thought of, but it doesn't mean you found every bug. A test suite will never ensure your code is bug free.)
There are a lot of open source projects that lose their primary maintainer, and they never get another feature again because of this. Someone wants to add one, but they can't figure out how, and just rewrite it, or give up completely. Be on the lookout!