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All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

blog.viveksrinivasan.com

41–50 of 78 posts

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#41
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s what happened in communist Poland. When a doctor makes the same amount as a receptionist or a street sweeper the motivation to be a doctor is pretty low.

Respect and power are still strong drivers

Who's going to respect you if you make the same money as a grocery store cashier? Personally I would think you're a sucker.

Also what power would you have in a Communist country?

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#42
I read stuff like that and I shake my head. I mean from get go the premise that everything will be subscription based is about as valid as that everything will be digital is just not true. There are things that people will not be willing to subscribe to ( https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/car-subscription-service-... ) and if you see the prices you can immediately tell why.

I will admit that I am biased, because I hate the trend Tesla started with making cars more like trial software and I absolutely despite Musk for his role in that, but based on what I saw in my MBA classes, he is certainly not a lone voice.

In other words, attempts will be made, but its hardly unavoidable version of the future. I sure as fuck am not paying extra for DRM'd lights in my car.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#43
post #3

Subscriptions make sense for things that you get a regular recurring supply of, like milk and newspapers. They might make sense for things that you can get regular upgrades for, like software (although often the "upgrades" aren't really worth much). But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. The whole point with such goods is that you pay once and…

> But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. Which is why there is a war on durable goods, such as trying to develop viable cloud gaming to replace people's gaming computers with subscription services.

Maybe not everyone wants or can afford a gaming computer? Being able to play any game from a tablet, phone, laptop or TV is very useful. And at the current costs of hardware, and the evolution of hardware requirements, even 2-3 subscription services come out cheaper than building an equivalent gaming rig.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#44
post #12

I agree that computer hardware manufacturers need to either build poor quality (selling you a new light bulb every 1000 hours) or rent things out as peak Moores law unfolds, even if some predict the litho to keep getting smaller (EUV) the CPU performance per watt will not increase, mostly because the architecture can't take advantage of the new transistors and random memory speed has been stuck for 20 years.

Or build more shit, which is already happening. A computer in your pocket, a computer in your fridge, a computer on your face (still hate that they insist on that for AR glasses and smartwatches), a computer for your car, a computer for games, a computer for your dog.

Oh and you can't swap parts between them or even fix them without professional equipment and training.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#45
post #16

You will own nothing and you will be happy. I am waiting all this to crumble under its own weight. The concept of ownership will not go away. It takes time the masses to realize, but eventually they will realize the truth. And will buy nothing. This ultimately will bring people down to earth and they will revolt. The picture planned by Davos elites and most powerful corporations has one big flaw. There is no way to s…

They'll give you all the shit for free so you can integrate and be a productive member of society, then rent higher quality stuff.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#46

The reason this will happen is NOT because it’s better for the customer (though in some cases it is). If a company is getting a recurring payment they can afford to spend a lot more acquiring a customer because they can compare that with a yearly / lifetime cost. If you’re selling a one off you can’t justify any more than that in your marketing. It becomes an arms race and the subscription companies win out because t…

I've been using a free, simple workout tracking app which stores data locally for the past 5 years on the same device. I recently recommended it to a friend, only discover it's now subscription/cloud only.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#48
post #6
post #3

Subscriptions make sense for things that you get a regular recurring supply of, like milk and newspapers. They might make sense for things that you can get regular upgrades for, like software (although often the "upgrades" aren't really worth much). But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. The whole point with such goods is that you pay once and…

How it makes sense is simple - people who lease cars don't pay the final payment. They give the car back and lease a new one. That way they pay a bit more for a few years, but they avoid most of the cost of deprecation that they'd lose if they owned the car at that point. If you plan to buy a car and own it for a long time then leasing is silly. If you plan to keep a car for no more than a few years then leasing is a…

>> but they avoid most of the cost of deprecation

Except that they don't. The dealer is taking the depreciated car back at the end of the lease. The dealer isn't giving customers a gift by taking the vehicle back at a loss. The lease price covers the entire cost of depreciation over the term of the lease. The customer may avoid seeing the depreciation but they are most definitely paying for it.

Worse still, they are coving the most expensive part of total depreciation: the time between new to slightly-used. The people getting the real deal are those buying post-lease vehicles. By buying a slightly used vehicle they avoid the initial depreciation covered by the from-new lease.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#49
post #16

You will own nothing and you will be happy. I am waiting all this to crumble under its own weight. The concept of ownership will not go away. It takes time the masses to realize, but eventually they will realize the truth. And will buy nothing. This ultimately will bring people down to earth and they will revolt. The picture planned by Davos elites and most powerful corporations has one big flaw. There is no way to s…

I'm also bearish on the western world but I don't look forward to the end.

Once the dollar is worthless and Europe collapse on its debts and corruption, the Chinese Communist party will own the world - if they don't already (think of the WHO not recognising Taiwan, the ties and donations of various government officials with China).

We're going from socialist governments who still pretend to give a crap about citizens' freedom to a full blown regime who "disappears" people, censor even more than our big tech overlords and create Nazi style concentration camps.

Unless South America or Africa somehow step up their game in terms of security and quality of life, there won't be a place to run to.

Maybe creating safe bubbles for relatively wealthy individuals in unsafe countries could be a solution.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#50
post #3

Subscriptions make sense for things that you get a regular recurring supply of, like milk and newspapers. They might make sense for things that you can get regular upgrades for, like software (although often the "upgrades" aren't really worth much). But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. The whole point with such goods is that you pay once and…

> But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars.

It makes complete sense if you see the downsides of ownership outweighing the upsides. You just have to separate the thing, ownership of the thing, and the job that it does.

If you derive some value just from owning a car that’s fine, but if its job is to get you from A to B, renting and Uber can both be valid options over buying. The three options aren’t even mutually exclusive!

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