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China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

dailybusinessgroup.co.uk

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Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#531
post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to look a lot less like a Ponzi scheme if/when the dollar collapses.

In a time of economic calamity, if you think your grocery store will take 'Coolbits', or their employees will take 'WokeCoin' as payment, or suppliers will accept 'TrumpGoldBucks' I think you'd be mistaken. If there were a serious problem with the USD, first, because of it's seigneurage position in the world, it would imply a 'giant crisis'. It would be bad. People would switch to other currencies like Euros, Pounds,…

Nobody said the grocery store would take crypto.

But you'd park your capital in places that are safe havens and convert out as late as possible to the (increasingly worthless) dollars. Arguably we're already at a place where keeping any non-emergency funds in USD is a terrible idea.

My point is exactly what you said: that you'd see a flight of capital to hard assets like gold and bitcoin to shield it from inflationary forces and their contagion. In that scenario, bitcoin is no more a "ponzi" than gold.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#532
post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coming soon to a country nearby you… Plebs cannot be allowed to have access to sound money, otherwise financial parasites can’t exists.

Are you sure you got this right? Keep in mind that the only way to make money with bitcoin is literally by taking it away from other "investors".

Now apply your idea to dollars, and think about who prints the dollars.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#533
post #170

Some people think of Bitcoin as a "store of value", comparing it to gold.. I have a question to people who believe that - What do you think will be the value of bitcoin in 100 years? Do you think your descendants would be happier with $50k* worth of bitcoin or with $50k* worth of gold in 200 years? How about 500 years? *$50k bitcoin/gold if bought today

Meh... there were some bonds provided by the Mexican government between 1850 and 1951 that at the time seemed like a good investment and now they are worth nothing [1]. Different instruments for different goals.

I would hold BTC for a 100 year horizon. I wouldn't hold it for a 500 year horizon. Actually I would not hold any asset for a 500 year horizon (including gold): I don't have kids and I don't think I will have to worry at that time.

[1] https://www.banxico.org.mx/marco-normativo/d/%7B097567D4-647...

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#534
post #352

Blockchain, not specifically crypto currencies, are also a means to operate anonymously outside of an authoritarian government. Sure there are gotchas with remaining anonymous, but I am sure China wouldn't want a blockchain-based, mesh, peer-to-peer, or distrubuted network, that could operate outside of the Great Firewall's ability to regulate or censor it. High-power, long-range WiFi and mesh networks would be hard…

You need to think about the threat model for someone living in that kind of state:

1. Radio transmitters are by definition easy to detect: once you get identified, you are in a world of trouble because you demonstrated full knowledge that you were doing something illegal. Anything which can be used to circumvent the Great Firewall will be treated as a threat to state security even if you personally are only using it for a less serious crime.

2. Blockchains are a censor's dream: you have a full signed confession of every transaction made by the person you just compromised and a list of everyone they corresponded with. If you catch someone new and have ways to get them to talk (China has a well-honed system for this), now you have that for all of their past transactions, too. Have a few undercover agents tell people about this mesh networking app and you can quietly roll up an entire network over time while making it look like the police just happened to get lucky breaks a lot.

3. Blockchains are hard to conceal: they require huge amounts of data transfer and you have to be online at the time you make a transaction, both of which dramatically increase the challenges of trying to be covert.

All of those combine into a huge problem for using blockchains: you don't need to worry about any of that or the extra expense _unless_ you're doing something illegal. That means that simply participating is inherently risky — better hope that you don't ever make internet traffic which would show an interest in this or have someone audit the apps installed on your devices — and the costs are guaranteed to be high because everyone involved is taking on the extra risk of whatever you're doing (and the chance that you're not being completely honest about the level of risk or are compromised) leading to scrutiny and/or that you will fail your opsec in a way which provides proof of their noncompliance.

No matter what you think of the Chinese system or whether it's right, it seems like a system designed to expose its users to significant risk in addition to whatever it is that they're trying to hide.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#535
post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a time of economic calamity, if you think your grocery store will take 'Coolbits', or their employees will take 'WokeCoin' as payment, or suppliers will accept 'TrumpGoldBucks' I think you'd be mistaken. If there were a serious problem with the USD, first, because of it's seigneurage position in the world, it would imply a 'giant crisis'. It would be bad. People would switch to other currencies like Euros, Pounds,…

Nobody said the grocery store would take crypto. But you'd park your capital in places that are safe havens and convert out as late as possible to the (increasingly worthless) dollars. Arguably we're already at a place where keeping any non-emergency funds in USD is a terrible idea. My point is exactly what you said: that you'd see a flight of capital to hard assets like gold and bitcoin to shield it from inflationar…

Crypto is a delusion. It's a very bad idea to move money into an 'asset' that has no value other than to the degree other people share that delusion.

Real-estate is valuable on some level, so are most other assets - even 'currencies', however poorly managed, are valuable because people need them to do stuff.

The worst place to go is crypto, it's the bottom of the 'store of value' equation in almost every way - the fact that the government would wipe them out immediately being just one of many risks.

Cypto, at least the way they exist today, have no rational place in anything other than for entertainment and intellectual speculation.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#537
post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. There's a huge difference between one or several actions and habitual behavior. You can find a method to get away with anything once. Operating on a daily basis where the government only has to catch you once is far less practical.

This is true for lots of virtuous acts or acts of survival under authoritative regimes, such as hiding Jews from the Nazis or selling your surplus harvest under Stalin. It’s only if you are privileged (or, arguably, ignorant) to not consider on balance the counterfactual costs of undermining technologies which could de-risk such acts for those being oppressed. (Which may include a future-you.)

Alternately, people who accurately understand the technology and the environment in which it is used might be speaking up against a system which is designed to endanger those people.

Using people subject to these risks in service of MLM recruitment pitches is not a moral good.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#538
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The reason why we have inflation and debt is to keep the value of our currencies stable A stable currency would have an inflation rate of 0%. Inflation does not cause currency stability, it decreases the value of the currency. By definition, its value is changing.

Not true, if money supply does not grow with population or economic growth it will be deflationary aka not stable. If deflation continues then people will hold onto money rather than buy things with it since things become relatively cheaper every day, which leads to economic downturn.

[deleted]

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My desired solution is for central banks and their abusive monetary policy to die in a fire. One way to achieve that is to have many competing currencies that are not controlled by a central bank. If any are a worthy replacement for government fiat people will use it. But, that is precisely why governments will do their best to regulate use of competing currencies. China has the most restrictive capital controls in t…

This implies a probably lack of understanding of what Central Banks do. "When the ships come into harbour, nail them to the dock" - not realizing that eventually, when the tide goes out - the ship will go down several feet relative to the dock and be damaged by the fixed boarding blanks. You have to use ropes to fix ships, because the water moves. Dumping the Central Bank and even using hard currency would lead to ec…

> Aside from that, anyone declaring monetary value on a crypto asset should have to declare it, and if they don't, they go to actual prison for tax evasion. I'm looking forward to those people replacing weed smokers in prison - that would be effective public policy.

You're both pro legalization of weed and pro government? The war drugs is one the many fronts of the war on personal freedom.

Ironically the thing you're railing against -- being an anonymous uncensured transaction platform -- is one of the few ways weed dealers and consumers can continue to transact.

> Crypto mining that is energy intensive should be banned immediately on that basis alone.

Which is only neccessary to prevent

> Also, in a completely unregulated scenario, powerful financial interests would leverage ownership of the crypto scheme and power would even be further centralized.

PoS _is_ succeptible to this as ownership means a voting stake. PoW prevents entrenched interests from controlling it.

Re: China declares cryptocurrency deals ‘illegal’

#540
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nonsense. Why would any sane person move a large part of their assets into something as volatile as crypto? If you want to protect yourself against inflation, buy real estate or equities if your time horizon is long enough. Even fixed income once rates are a bit better. But for the average person please stay clear of crypto!

The average person cannot buy real estate. The average person knows the system is rigged against them

Yes you can. Buy REIT ETFs. It's investing in real estate but with high liquidity and very low minimum investment.
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