Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history

#21

Post by jasonlotito » Thu, Sep 23, 2021, 1:23 PM UTC

happy_path wrote: post #14

I'm mildly annoyed by journalists calling "Spanish Flu" where the 1918 Flu Pandemic had no relationship with Spain. The author could have titled the piece as "Covid-19 overtakes 1918 flu pandemic as deadliest disease in American history" and later, inside the article include some kind of note about that in that time, it was called (mistakenly) "Spanish flu". I'm not advocating for "cancel culture" or auto-censorship…

The way we name these things was in fact recently changed for precisely this reason. I forget where I read this, but yes, this is why it’s COVID 19 and not any of the other bad names that people tried to give it. Unfortunately, names for things in the past are harder to change, because people know it as the Spanish Flu, so even if you said the 1918 flu pandemic, you’d still have to clarify which one at this point in time.

Re: Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history

#22

Post by CountDrewku » Thu, Sep 23, 2021, 1:24 PM UTC

happy_path wrote: post #14

I'm mildly annoyed by journalists calling "Spanish Flu" where the 1918 Flu Pandemic had no relationship with Spain. The author could have titled the piece as "Covid-19 overtakes 1918 flu pandemic as deadliest disease in American history" and later, inside the article include some kind of note about that in that time, it was called (mistakenly) "Spanish flu". I'm not advocating for "cancel culture" or auto-censorship…

You might have a good point but changing it now would just be confusing. Historically it has been called the Spanish Flu and I assume everything referencing it during that time uses the word Spanish. I think a mention of how it wasn't actually from Spain is plenty good, there's no reason to alter the name. I think it's good that everyone knows it was historically called the Spanish Flu.

Re: Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history

#23

Post by Jtype » Thu, Sep 23, 2021, 1:24 PM UTC

happy_path wrote: post #14

I'm mildly annoyed by journalists calling "Spanish Flu" where the 1918 Flu Pandemic had no relationship with Spain. The author could have titled the piece as "Covid-19 overtakes 1918 flu pandemic as deadliest disease in American history" and later, inside the article include some kind of note about that in that time, it was called (mistakenly) "Spanish flu". I'm not advocating for "cancel culture" or auto-censorship…

That is what is is known by. If they wrote 1918 flu pandemic more readers would be confused.

Re: Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history

#24

Post by lotsofpulp » Thu, Sep 23, 2021, 1:25 PM UTC

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #17

hbn wrote: post #13

> The Spanish flu was previously the disease event that caused the biggest loss of life in the United States; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 675,000 Americans died during the 1918 pandemic, in waves of illness that stretched out over roughly two years in this country. > According to STAT’s Covid-19 Tracker, Covid deaths stand at more than 675,400. Why are we comparing raw numbers? If one…

>Why are we comparing raw numbers? For the clicks and eyeballs. Bigger numbers make better headlines. This is journalism 101.

So much noise, so little signal.

Re: Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history

#25

Post by phreeza » Thu, Sep 23, 2021, 1:26 PM UTC

hbn wrote: post #13

> The Spanish flu was previously the disease event that caused the biggest loss of life in the United States; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 675,000 Americans died during the 1918 pandemic, in waves of illness that stretched out over roughly two years in this country. > According to STAT’s Covid-19 Tracker, Covid deaths stand at more than 675,400. Why are we comparing raw numbers? If one…

Because otherwise a car crash in a small town would be equivalent to a major terror attack in NYC, or Jack the ripper could be considered a minor offender compared to a modern day involuntary manslaughter. There is a time and place for normalized statistics, but for some situations, loss of life is something that matters.

Edit: I got the arrow of time mixed up in the jack the ripper example, but you get the idea.

Re: Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history

#26

Post by jasonlotito » Thu, Sep 23, 2021, 1:27 PM UTC

hbn wrote: post #13

> The Spanish flu was previously the disease event that caused the biggest loss of life in the United States; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 675,000 Americans died during the 1918 pandemic, in waves of illness that stretched out over roughly two years in this country. > According to STAT’s Covid-19 Tracker, Covid deaths stand at more than 675,400. Why are we comparing raw numbers? If one…

> Why are we comparing raw numbers?

Because it’s one of many ways to look at this disease, and any reasonably intelligent person will understand that this one comparison doesn’t tell you the whole story, but it does tell a story. The story goes into explaining this more, and also why we might not want to compare this to the 1918 pandemic itself.

I mean, the article addresses pretty much everything you mention in your comment, so I’m not sure why you bothered posting.

Re: Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history

#27

Post by mistermann » Thu, Sep 23, 2021, 1:28 PM UTC

phreeza wrote: post #25

hbn wrote: post #13

> The Spanish flu was previously the disease event that caused the biggest loss of life in the United States; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 675,000 Americans died during the 1918 pandemic, in waves of illness that stretched out over roughly two years in this country. > According to STAT’s Covid-19 Tracker, Covid deaths stand at more than 675,400. Why are we comparing raw numbers? If one…

Because otherwise a car crash in a small town would be equivalent to a major terror attack in NYC, or Jack the ripper could be considered a minor offender compared to a modern day involuntary manslaughter. There is a time and place for normalized statistics, but for some situations, loss of life is something that matters. Edit: I got the arrow of time mixed up in the jack the ripper example, but you get the idea.

An illustration of lies, damn lies, and statistics?

Re: Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history

#28

Post by TYPE_FASTER » Thu, Sep 23, 2021, 1:28 PM UTC

mrfinn wrote: post #19

Well, hard to tell for sure, once it has been announced by the CDC that at the end of this year the PCR tests used are not a valid source anymore for Covid-19 diagnosing [1], because among other problems, those tests are not able to provide a solid identification and differentiation between Covid and other diseases, as the suddenly disappeared flu disease. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-al…

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/08-02-2021-lab-alert...

From the link:

Is CDC retiring the CDC 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel because it has produced inaccurate results?

No. There are no performance concerns with this test. The CDC 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel is a highly accurate test. It has been used to successfully detect SARS-CoV-2 since February 2020.

. . .

Does the CDC 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel confuse influenza with SARS-CoV-2?

No. The CDC 2019-nCoV Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel does not confuse influenza with SARS-CoV-2. It is a highly accurate test that detects the presence or absence of SARS-CoV-2 viral genetic material within a patient specimen.

Re: Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history

#29

Post by gruez » Thu, Sep 23, 2021, 1:30 PM UTC

phreeza wrote: post #25

hbn wrote: post #13

> The Spanish flu was previously the disease event that caused the biggest loss of life in the United States; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 675,000 Americans died during the 1918 pandemic, in waves of illness that stretched out over roughly two years in this country. > According to STAT’s Covid-19 Tracker, Covid deaths stand at more than 675,400. Why are we comparing raw numbers? If one…

Because otherwise a car crash in a small town would be equivalent to a major terror attack in NYC, or Jack the ripper could be considered a minor offender compared to a modern day involuntary manslaughter. There is a time and place for normalized statistics, but for some situations, loss of life is something that matters. Edit: I got the arrow of time mixed up in the jack the ripper example, but you get the idea.

>Because otherwise a car crash in a small town would be equivalent to a major terror attack in NYC

You can probably adjust for this using some sort of statistical significance test. However, without actually doing the test I'll go on a limb and say that the world's population wasn't small enough in 1918 that this phenomena (ie. n being too small) would skew the results.

Re: Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history

#30

Post by mrfinn » Thu, Sep 23, 2021, 1:30 PM UTC

TYPE_FASTER wrote: post #28

mrfinn wrote: post #19

Well, hard to tell for sure, once it has been announced by the CDC that at the end of this year the PCR tests used are not a valid source anymore for Covid-19 diagnosing [1], because among other problems, those tests are not able to provide a solid identification and differentiation between Covid and other diseases, as the suddenly disappeared flu disease. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-al…

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/08-02-2021-lab-alert... From the link: Is CDC retiring the CDC 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel because it has produced inaccurate results? No. There are no performance concerns with this test. The CDC 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel is a highly accurate test. It has been used to successfully detect SARS-C…

You see there's a logical contradiction between the two different posts right?