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TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of Congress Do

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Re: TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of Congress Do

#171
I noticed there is a call to prevent members of Congress and whatnot to be prevented from holding stocks.

That won't happen. Ever.

What's more likely is that their transactions will be exempt from being made public... they make the laws afterall :)

Re: TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of Congress Do

#172

https://www.cnbc.com/id/218.html This reminds me of a study which showed that even if you bought the same stocks a month after Buffett and his holding company Berkshire Hathaway disclosed their own purchases, you'd still be way ahead of the game. "The market ... appears to under-react to the news of a Berkshire stock investment since a hypothetical portfolio that mimics Berkshire's investments created the month after…

There's a community on Reddit that studies Berkshire's purchases (investments made by Buffett/Weschler/Combs) and tries to follow, purchasing only below what Berkshire paid: https://old.reddit.com/r/brkb/ For example, in 2020 and early 2021 Berkshire paid $59 for Verizon, buying $9 billion worth (a huge Buffett/Weschler telecom investment). Verizon now trades at about $54, so this community is buying.

At this point why are you not just buying BRK-B?

Re: TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of Congress Do

#173
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

* Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul Not saying she didn't give him info, but she didn't do the actual trades. He's an investment manager. > Paul Pelosi, investment manager and the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, purchased up to $11 million worth of mega-cap tech stocks in May and June, according to a financial disclosure form filed last week. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nancy-pelosi...

As a non-American, how is this legal? I was under the impression that financial trading is highly regulated in the US. I mean the possibility of her not giving insider info to her husband is very slim to none imo.

In the US, when you have a lot of money you are above the law.

Re: TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of Congress Do

#174
post #21

This is unlikely to work because of the timing delay. Suppose a member of Congress has access to inside information and trades on it. They have 45 days to disclose the trade. By the time the trade is disclosed, the market has already moved: if Pelosi or McConnell or whoever bought low so they could sell high, a month later the increase is probably already baked in.

[deleted]

Re: TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of Congress Do

#175
post #21

This is unlikely to work because of the timing delay. Suppose a member of Congress has access to inside information and trades on it. They have 45 days to disclose the trade. By the time the trade is disclosed, the market has already moved: if Pelosi or McConnell or whoever bought low so they could sell high, a month later the increase is probably already baked in.

This is unlikely to work because now everyone knows about it.

Re: TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of Congress Do

#176
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also unlikely to work because Congress members don't do particularly well on trading. It's very hard to trade successfully, even with insider information its not entirely obvious what a stock price will do. It seems obvious because news media often reports ad-hoc analysis on a stock price movement. For instance, they'll say "Apple up 5% based on surprising App store revenue growth", but if it were to drop you…

Ehh, Nancy Pelosi beats most hedge fund managers consistently year over year. https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate/pelosi

Paul Pelosi acted on insider info back in 07. I’ve wonder what his position in the market was when Henry Paulson was on his knees begging her to TARP.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-insidertradi...

https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-inside-job/2008/09/...

Re: TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of Congress Do

#178

https://www.cnbc.com/id/218.html This reminds me of a study which showed that even if you bought the same stocks a month after Buffett and his holding company Berkshire Hathaway disclosed their own purchases, you'd still be way ahead of the game. "The market ... appears to under-react to the news of a Berkshire stock investment since a hypothetical portfolio that mimics Berkshire's investments created the month after…

There's a community on Reddit that studies Berkshire's purchases (investments made by Buffett/Weschler/Combs) and tries to follow, purchasing only below what Berkshire paid: https://old.reddit.com/r/brkb/ For example, in 2020 and early 2021 Berkshire paid $59 for Verizon, buying $9 billion worth (a huge Buffett/Weschler telecom investment). Verizon now trades at about $54, so this community is buying.

Cool - didn't know about that!

But, yes Shameless Cloning Can Lead to Financial Success :)

I actually wrote about it here: https://playingfordoubles.substack.com/p/shameless-cloning-c...

Re: TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of Congress Do

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ehh, Nancy Pelosi beats most hedge fund managers consistently year over year. https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate/pelosi

Paul Pelosi acted on insider info back in 07. I’ve wonder what his position in the market was when Henry Paulson was on his knees begging her to TARP. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-insidertradi... https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/the-inside-job/2008/09/...

That Reuters article you referenced does not say that he traded on insider information. It says that Paul Pelosi may have gotten access to an IPO based on Nancy's position (although that is disputed by Pelosi who says that access was applied for in the standard manner through his broker). That's very different from insider trading.

Re: TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of Congress Do

#180
> A Pelosi spokesperson said that she does not personally own any stocks and that the transactions are made by her husband. "The Speaker has no prior knowledge or subsequent involvement in any transactions," said the spokesperson."

This is so flimsy it's almost comical.

She doesn't need to know what her stock trading husband is doing. He needs to know what's happening in government before it's public. She knows this information, and they are a couple. Thus, unless she promises that she doesn't talk anything about her work to him, it is assumed that he will learn of things before the general public will.

Even if she doesn't talk to her husband specifically about her work, she probably spends a good amount of time talking on the phone or to aides where he can overhear.

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