Live data from Hacker News

Home Price to Income Ratio

longtermtrends.net

401–410 of 704 posts

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#401

A more relevant metric to consider - monthly mortgage payment to monthly income ratio. Average interest rates in 2007 were 6.34% vs ~2.80% today. [1] * 6.34% / $2,000 monthly payment / 20% down (~$65k) >> $328,319 price of home * 2.80% / $2,000 monthly payment / 20% down (~$98k) >> $489,794 price of home Homebuyers will make purchasing decision based on their monthly mortgage payments, instead of the home price. When…

This. Here's research to back this statement up: Today's House Prices Are Over 40 Percent More Affordable Than The Housing Boom Peak: https://blog.firstam.com/economics/todays-house-prices-are-o...

Awesome, thanks for sharing. Bookmarked.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#402

A more relevant metric to consider - monthly mortgage payment to monthly income ratio. Average interest rates in 2007 were 6.34% vs ~2.80% today. [1] * 6.34% / $2,000 monthly payment / 20% down (~$65k) >> $328,319 price of home * 2.80% / $2,000 monthly payment / 20% down (~$98k) >> $489,794 price of home Homebuyers will make purchasing decision based on their monthly mortgage payments, instead of the home price. When…

> A more relevant metric to consider - monthly mortgage payment to monthly income ratio. I find this attitude baffling. If you bought a car or a phone and paid in monthly installments, you would want to know for how long you'll be paying, not just the monthly amount. Why is a mortgage different? Is it the duration, where your brain sees 20-30 years, and substitutes that with "forever"? How would you feel if, after 30…

The point is that you have more purchasing power with lower income rates. In this example you can buy a house worth 25% more.

Pretty much all home buying decisions are normalized on a 30 year fixed mortgage. When figuring out what you can spend its easier to figure out what you can afford per month ans extrapolate your purchase price from there.

For that matter most car buying decisions are done the same way based on a five year loan (maybe seven these days).

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#403

A more relevant metric to consider - monthly mortgage payment to monthly income ratio. Average interest rates in 2007 were 6.34% vs ~2.80% today. [1] * 6.34% / $2,000 monthly payment / 20% down (~$65k) >> $328,319 price of home * 2.80% / $2,000 monthly payment / 20% down (~$98k) >> $489,794 price of home Homebuyers will make purchasing decision based on their monthly mortgage payments, instead of the home price. When…

> A more relevant metric to consider - monthly mortgage payment to monthly income ratio. I find this attitude baffling. If you bought a car or a phone and paid in monthly installments, you would want to know for how long you'll be paying, not just the monthly amount. Why is a mortgage different? Is it the duration, where your brain sees 20-30 years, and substitutes that with "forever"? How would you feel if, after 30…

The duration of the loan doesn't change based on the interest rate.

In both of OP's examples the hypothetical borrower pays the same amount per month, for the same number of months. A lower interest rate does not affect the duration of the loan. In neither case can the bank simply extend the duration of your loan.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#404

A more relevant metric to consider - monthly mortgage payment to monthly income ratio. Average interest rates in 2007 were 6.34% vs ~2.80% today. [1] * 6.34% / $2,000 monthly payment / 20% down (~$65k) >> $328,319 price of home * 2.80% / $2,000 monthly payment / 20% down (~$98k) >> $489,794 price of home Homebuyers will make purchasing decision based on their monthly mortgage payments, instead of the home price. When…

> A more relevant metric to consider - monthly mortgage payment to monthly income ratio. I find this attitude baffling. If you bought a car or a phone and paid in monthly installments, you would want to know for how long you'll be paying, not just the monthly amount. Why is a mortgage different? Is it the duration, where your brain sees 20-30 years, and substitutes that with "forever"? How would you feel if, after 30…

Because the alternative is usually renting, where the monthly expense is similar, but there is no principal down or asset appreciation.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#405
post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Raw land is cheap. Housing codes are what keep people like myself out of the housing market. If I could just dump a yurt on the land, or a cabin like our forefathers, then housing prices would be a total non issue. But a bunch of selfish NIMBYs are so scared of the poors building a yurt instead of a 2000 sq ft brick house for two people and a dog, they'll never allow it.

There are plenty of trailer parks all over the country that will let you plop your yurt down and even plumb it in to local utilities. You may not enjoy your neighbors very much.

You might also not like your neighbours in an expensive gated community.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#406
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean fiscal policy? You absolutely can infuse trillions of dollars into the economy without causing inflation after the economy takes a $4T hit from a pandemic; the government spending will be what prevents disastrous deflation. People worry about inflation, but forget how awful deflation is. (And on a side-rant, it’s really bizarre how the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany is cited as enabling the rise of the…

I've never understood how deflation could ever be a concern in countries that print their own money. Can you not just print your way out of it every time?

I know of two examples from the Depression. In Germany, it was a deliberate policy. In France, it was a zealous adherence to the gold standard.

I am also bewildered. So many bad effects of deflation.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#407

A more relevant metric to consider - monthly mortgage payment to monthly income ratio. Average interest rates in 2007 were 6.34% vs ~2.80% today. [1] * 6.34% / $2,000 monthly payment / 20% down (~$65k) >> $328,319 price of home * 2.80% / $2,000 monthly payment / 20% down (~$98k) >> $489,794 price of home Homebuyers will make purchasing decision based on their monthly mortgage payments, instead of the home price. When…

> A more relevant metric to consider - monthly mortgage payment to monthly income ratio. I find this attitude baffling. If you bought a car or a phone and paid in monthly installments, you would want to know for how long you'll be paying, not just the monthly amount. Why is a mortgage different? Is it the duration, where your brain sees 20-30 years, and substitutes that with "forever"? How would you feel if, after 30…

Generally because the point at which you stop requiring shelter is because you're dead - so forever is a good proxy.

You can do this with all your purchases though: anytime you buy anything, don't look at the sticker price - figure out the equivalent monthly cost for the expected lifetime of the item. This can have a dramatic impact on your purchasing habits.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While this is accurate, a more concerning secondary impact is the increased deposit. In Australia specifically, house prices are soaring. The most in-demand markets increases are currently ~$1200 per day [1]. For many people their home is a more 'productive' than they are, greatly outpacing their own earning potential. Those who already have wealth can buy in, or continue to buy in and leverage themselves into the ma…

Raw land is cheap. Housing codes are what keep people like myself out of the housing market. If I could just dump a yurt on the land, or a cabin like our forefathers, then housing prices would be a total non issue. But a bunch of selfish NIMBYs are so scared of the poors building a yurt instead of a 2000 sq ft brick house for two people and a dog, they'll never allow it.

Raw land in most denser US urban areas is not cheap. There’s also huge incentives to build additional units. I’m Berkeley where I live it’s becoming more common to see developers buy a run down single family home and raze it and the city will allow you to build a 3 or 4 unit townhome in the space. Much of this forced by state laws, particularly if a unit or two is reserved for low income families.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone in the US thinks "housing costs can't keep rising, the market will correct itself", then just look at Canada. The average sale price of a home in the US is roughly $375k. In Canada, it is about $700k, and property values continue to rise.

I guarantee that housing in Toronto will continue to climb at 10%-15 % per year. Housing is the only thing keeping the Canadian economy afloat. The BoC has no choice anymore, they will pay your mortgage if necessary. I dare them to raise rates to just 5%, there will be a collapse that will leave half the country in the streets. If you can afford to buy, buy with both hands. You will double your money in the next 5 ye…

Well, it better keep going for another five years after that, and then another five years after that, and so on, because anyone buying a $5 million 4-bed-2-bath house for their family is only more dependent on that trend continuing than the one who paid $2 million. The price tag is only justified when there's no end in sight to the appreciation. Nobody would pay $5 million for that house if its value stops rising, let alone starts dropping.

The government can't guarantee real estate, because any 99.9% risk-free investment with 10% annual growth can be levered into a 99% risk-free investment with 100% annual growth, and that's going to absorb all available capital like a black hole. The more the government acts to reduce risk without offsetting that by reducing returns or increasing the cost of debt, the bigger that black hole will grow.

At some point, it might be worth biting the bullet and incentivizing investments into sectors of the Canadian economy that aren't housing. If workers can see housing appreciating by multiples of the median salary, and entrepreneurs clue in to the fact that they'd earn more as a real estate agent than by building a tech company, "the Canadian economy depends on housing" becomes a self-fulfilling property. A few more doublings and then there's no point bothering to do anything else like growing food and assembling cars. Then you end up with a Zimbabwe situation where, yes, your house is worth a trillion dollars and rising, but it's not... good.

But maybe if we keep pouring enough gasoline on it, we'll be able to put out this fire?

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#410
post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interest rates are irrelevant when you can only borrow 4.5x income but home prices are at 8-9x Interest rates are irrelevant when you need 20% down and it will take you a decade to save that up while renting, because of said multiple.

This is not accurate. The average down payment is currently 5% per the latest Urban Institute Research. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/09/urban-institute-m...

[deleted]
Post reply on HN