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Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds

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Re: Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds

#341
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the U.S. murder rate is not all that remarkable, really The US is at 4.96/100,000 for 2012. For reference, Angola is better at 4.85. Bulgaria and Romania, the poorest countries in the EU, are at 1.3. France is at 1.2. If by not remarkable you mean 3 as bad as other developed countries, sure. The numbers are only for intentional homicide, not even counting accidents and suicides which are also made worse by the…

Agreed with all of the above, but it addition, isn’t it obvious gun owners in the United States are much more likely to support any likely authoritarian government? They are mostly right wing, and the right wing in the US increasingly leans authoritarian.

> isn’t it obvious gun owners in the United States are much more likely to support any likely authoritarian government?

That's hilarious. Sure, there's the Republican party, but also a massive Libertarian sentiment here, and Libertarians love guns.

Re: Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VC was supported by China. Taliban is supported by Pakistan and Russia. They don't have "small arms", they have the backing of major powers.

Did VC and Taliban have tanks, planes, or warships?

The VC were conveniently for the North used up in the Tet Offensive, after that it almost entirely the regular forces of the North. Who didn't need planes or warships for their second huge armored invasion after support US was withdrawn for the South.

Re: Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been shown that many people would side with democrats on the majority of social issues and vote for them if not for their stance on firearms. If the democrats lost their ability to use that as part of their culture war platform they'd likely gain a ton of people who don't vote or vote R simply to retain their rights.

This is silly, because Gun laws are a central part of the platform and can't be abandoned. This is like saying if Republicans just dropped anti-immigration from their platform they'd gain a ton of people who don't vote for them because they're Mexican. Any move like this fundamentally alienates the base.

What keeps a party's platform from changing? Would former republicans vote democrat if the republican party dropped its anti-immigration stance? Surely not, as there is still abortion, taxes, guns, etc.

Re: Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why? The taliban is not like a nation state army, more like a bunch or militias and tribes, each of which is a “bunch of local guys with guns”. As the war has progressed, I imagine they have got more professional, but I’m guessing around 80-90% of their strength are non ideological tribal militias who are very good at figuring out which way the wind is blowing and changing sides. That worked in the US favor in 2001-2…

Supported by military arms from Pakistan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.

And now $85 billion worth of American military arms as well.

Re: Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds

#345

Everyone should own a gun, and most more than 1. If we were to maintain public education (which... just no, please) gun education should be standard.

I'd rather reduce my chances of being shot, which is a thing you can do by simply declining to purchase a firearm[1] > Overall, Branas’s study found that people who carried guns were 4.5 times as likely to be shot and 4.2 times as likely to get killed compared with unarmed citizens. When the team looked at shootings in which victims had a chance to defend themselves, their odds of getting shot were even higher. [1] h…

That study doesn't even say that. It doesn't propose causation, and looks at accessible firearms, not gun ownership. There's no way a gun kept in a safe or a nightstand reasonably affects your likelihood of getting shot, everything else being equal.

> We also did not account for the potential of reverse causation between gun possession and gun assault.

The study's methodology looks terrible. It's a case-control population study of Philly over 3 years. Every case began as a notification about a shooting case investigated by police. The vast majority of shooting data comes from shooting cases forwarded by police, not by sampling and then finding which of the sample were involved in shootings. As such, they excluded a valuable dataset of police-reported assaults that didn't result in shootings, which could have corrected some biases in the data based on how the cases came to the researchers' attention.

The 95% confidence intervals are wildly variable, and if you look at figure 3, any significant amount of lying by surveyed control subjects about having guns leads to insignificant results. If you call up some random gun-owner in Philly and ask them if they have a gun, how likely do you think it is that they'll lie? Those 4.x and 5.x odds ratios look impressive, but even after assuming 0% lying by case controls, they only barely clear the statistical significance bar.

It's difficult to speculate all the ways a study like could be flawed without seeing the underlying data and putting a lot of effort into analyzing it and how they corrected for potential confounders, but I'm not at all surprised they found gun possession correlated with increased odds of getting shot.

The causation determination really comes down to what kind of gun owner you are. There are a subset who own guns, carry guns, and do everything they can reasonably do to stay out of trouble, which often means avoiding friends or social environments that are generally "trouble". In that case, gun possession probably lowers your risk, because it makes you hyperaware of dangers and their avoidance. It's like a game you play every time you leave your home, of what can go wrong and what's the best way to handle it. Very quickly, that game becomes a habit and becomes uninteresting except when you do something or go somewhere unusual.

Then there's the subset of people who own guns and carry them because they're likely to get into trouble, they go around looking for trouble, or they go around oblivious to trouble. For them, maybe there's mild causation, having a gun makes them more confident to take more risks, or maybe there's no causation, and it's just the higher rate of gun ownership among those types (which includes criminals) that leads to poorly designed studies finding a statistical correlation between gun possession and getting shot. And there's no way to run these studies I've ever seen that satisfies both sides. Someone always thinks some study disregards something important.

Re: Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds

#346
post #96

There's something admirable about the idea that a government would not take away all the guns. The idea that people should not have to give up all of their ability to fight. The idea that people should not be entirely dependent on police for their defense. And the idea that physically weaker people (often women) can defend themselves against the strong. Does this idea work? Surprisingly well. If you had to guess the…

> But the U.S. murder rate is not all that remarkable, really The US is at 4.96/100,000 for 2012. For reference, Angola is better at 4.85. Bulgaria and Romania, the poorest countries in the EU, are at 1.3. France is at 1.2. If by not remarkable you mean 3 as bad as other developed countries, sure. The numbers are only for intentional homicide, not even counting accidents and suicides which are also made worse by the…

Something that's important to keep in mind with murder rates is that they are tiny. That France's tiny number is more tiny than the US's tiny number is irrelevant. If you wanted to lower the frequency of unexpected deaths you'd spend all your time and money doing things that would encourage people to exercise more, or something like that.

Another thing to keep in mind is that murders are not random, whereas the other ways people die early often are pretty random (like car accidents). Regular Americans living regular lives have an effectively zero change of being murdered. Just ignore it.

Re: Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds

#347

Hypothesis (which I have given about 30 seconds' thought): buying a gun was formerly a way to feel masculine, or to feel potent, or for use in a sport such as hunting or target shooting. In these situations, women found them to have little appeal. Recently, buying a gun is more often because of an actual concern for safety. Women are about as likely as men to feel concern about that. Hence, the numbers are now more e…

Statistically women should have much less concern for safety since they are less involved in violent altercations and men in general don't tend to attack women, unlike what popular culture these days tries to make us believe

Re: Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds

#348
I don't know, if a military goes rogue, they'll go for the gun owners first. I don't know how many of the contributors here have been to the army, but if you have been, you will know that some shotguns and guns won't go far against military arsenals. It might help a bit against police forces, but military? Forget it. To even compete with a military force, you need coordination and logistics.

And this is one of the reasons why I am against civilian gun carriage:

https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/b9b/49f/034f952656161db66b95...

I am in Europe and have lived in some LATAM places where everyone, everyone carries a gun or has a couple of them at home, the law be damned. It's a bit better in the US, as the poverty in the US is not as widespread, but I believe a peaceful society should be without guns, police can have them, military can have them. If that don't work, you need a revolution or run away anyway, and a Glock won't do much there.

Re: Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been shown that many people would side with democrats on the majority of social issues and vote for them if not for their stance on firearms. If the democrats lost their ability to use that as part of their culture war platform they'd likely gain a ton of people who don't vote or vote R simply to retain their rights.

This is silly, because Gun laws are a central part of the platform and can't be abandoned. This is like saying if Republicans just dropped anti-immigration from their platform they'd gain a ton of people who don't vote for them because they're Mexican. Any move like this fundamentally alienates the base.

It seems highly unlikely to me that many people would switch from D to R if the democrats stopped pursuing gun control.

On the other hand I know many people who will hold their nose and vote R only because they don’t want to lose their gun rights.

Re: Women are nearly half of new gun buyers, study finds

#350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed with all of the above, but it addition, isn’t it obvious gun owners in the United States are much more likely to support any likely authoritarian government? They are mostly right wing, and the right wing in the US increasingly leans authoritarian.

This is an oversimplification to some degree, but even if we take this for the sake of argument, isn’t the obvious solution to stop treating gun ownership as a right wing issue?

Who should stop treating gun ownership as a right wing issue? Left wing people? Most left wing people think there should be fewer guns.
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