Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#711

Post by boplicity » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 2:08 AM UTC

throwawayfear wrote: post #677

wrycoder wrote: post #596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can test for natural immunity. That then counts as fully vaccinated.

It should count. But why test for it and why expect proof? If someone is concerned, get vaccinated if you don't have antibodies already. And wear a mask when cases go above N in your area. Problem solved. What use is there to build systems of control that will turn into more surveillance and eventual enslavement?

>What use is there to build systems of control that will turn into more surveillance and eventual enslavement?

After the seatbelt laws came in, I didn't wear my seat belt. Before I new it, I was arrested. They sent me to a prison work camp. I had to work 14 hours a day. I nearly died of starvation. (The food was crap, I couldn't keep it down.) Fortunately, a guard took pity on me, and I managed to escape. I'm safe now, with a new ID, good internet access, etc, which is how I'm able to share my story.

If only we hadn't put up with those darn seatbelt laws, maybe things wouldn't have turned out so badly.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#712

Post by wwweston » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 2:09 AM UTC

ghiculescu wrote: post #533

kristjansson wrote: post #525

Because it's a terrible policy prescription. If natural immunity is acceptable, what proportion of the unvaccinated-uninfected population will just take the risk? Half? More? Millions of people will just (continue to) take the risk, get sick, go to hospital, and die (in decreasing proportions), incurring substantial personal and social costs along the way. Accepting only vaccination as evidence of protection reduces…

If hospitals didn’t overflow and society didn’t crumble for most of 2020 (when there was 0% vaccination), it’s odd to argue that it will now that there is 65% vaccination.

It never took that large of a percentage of the population to get sick at once to overwhelm hospital capacity. Some tenths of a percent could probably it. 35% of the population vulnerable means there's plenty of room for that.

Enough people do OK w/o interventions that "social collapse" probably wasn't ever going to be the outcome (short of more virulent variants), it's just whether more or fewer of the people for whom treatment makes a difference between life and death (or other morbid outcomes) can get the treatment.

Also, there's probably an overlap between those who've received the vaccine and those who were taking other (ie distance-focused) related precautions pre-vaccine. And the possibility of burning out medical workers.

And in any case, things in some locations are worse now than they've been thus far:

     "In Florida, a record number of people are dying from COVID-19—a seven-day average of 338 deaths, higher than at any other point in the pandemic."

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/graphics/graphic-...

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#713

Post by freeflight » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 2:10 AM UTC

cblconfederate wrote: post #121

darthvoldemort wrote: post #21

A recent study from Israel said that natural immunity is an order of magnitude better than vaccine-induced immunity against delta variant. I don't know who to believe, but if that's the case, then the narrative of "well they should get vaccinated anyway" is really freaking suspicious. We need deeper research on this, and the fact that they haven't researched this is truly scary.

13 times actually https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v... I think this will be more relevant to vaccinating kids: If this result holds for kids as well, and considering that Covid is not dangerous for kids, maybe kids are better off getting covid

I don't understand this whole push to vaccinate kids.

In the beginning all the panic was about the "most vulnerable" in the population, while the young ones apparently could deal with it fine enough.

A year and a half later and we are rushing to vaccinate the youngest ones, even tho it doesn't prevent them from spreading and they have great chances to get trough the disease without the vaccine already.

The ultimate goal here seems to be to just get everybody vaccinated, possibly even yearly.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#714

Post by jonny_eh » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 2:12 AM UTC

MSM wrote: post #620

ixacto wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To reply as the devils advocate to this comment, what is the tolerance to social costs that society is willing to bear? Also why would one segment of society have to do something that it doesn't want e.g. not bear risk if they want to? Should we tell people to get their BMI under 25 too? Overweight and obesity are going to cost much more in increased healthcare costs than COVID will in the coming decades (pls prove m…

>Should we tell people to get their BMI under 25 too? >What about drinking and smoking? There's a lot of investment in trying to fix these problems already, or at least offset the costs. For example, there are "sin taxes" for things like cigarettes and alcohol, which means smokers and drinkers are paying disproportionately more taxes than those that don't. You could argue that overweight folks are also paying disprop…

Covid is contagious, obesity is not.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#715

Post by rpmisms » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 2:12 AM UTC

peteradio wrote: post #2

This article also has long form responses. I'd love to see a reasoned contrary response.

The reasoned answer is politics. One side of the aisle committed to a message before they had all the data. The other side did this too. Now it's too politically costly to change any of those positions, no matter how much anyone claims to "follow the science".

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#716

Post by throwawayfear » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 2:14 AM UTC

boplicity wrote: post #711

throwawayfear wrote: post #677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It should count. But why test for it and why expect proof? If someone is concerned, get vaccinated if you don't have antibodies already. And wear a mask when cases go above N in your area. Problem solved. What use is there to build systems of control that will turn into more surveillance and eventual enslavement?

>What use is there to build systems of control that will turn into more surveillance and eventual enslavement? After the seatbelt laws came in, I didn't wear my seat belt. Before I new it, I was arrested. They sent me to a prison work camp. I had to work 14 hours a day. I nearly died of starvation. (The food was crap, I couldn't keep it down.) Fortunately, a guard took pity on me, and I managed to escape. I'm safe no…

Cute analogy but it's not an honest or accurate one. Look at what's happening in Australia as an example.

They're going to force people who quarantine at home (rather than a government-mandated quarantine "hotel" with guards) to install and use an app. Facial recognition, GPS tracking in your own home. And it will randomly ping you, and if you don't respond within 15 minutes it'll send the police to your house to conduct an in-person quarantine check. Source:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-a...

They're arresting people for making Facebook posts against lockdowns. Source:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-54007824

Australia presumes to say how many people can visit your home. Source:

https://theconversation.com/vaccine-passports-are-coming-to-...

“NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian yesterday announced freedoms for fully vaccinated people once 70% of the state’s eligible population are double dosed. These include being able to go to hospitality venues, hairdressers and gyms, and have five people to your home.”

They can arbitrarily lock you in your apartment building for up to weeks, no one allowed to leave. Source:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-53316097

Do you really want similar systems built everywhere? Do you really want to have to show a covid vaccine passport to go to the theater or the gym or the bar? What about those 100+ million Americans who have antibodies from past covid infection already?

Do you believe that there is a point at which we should raise the alarm about impending tyranny? Do you believe that there was ever a point in the last 4 years where we had a President who may have had ties to supremacist movements? Do you believe that there was ever in the last 4 years a legitimate risk of tyranny taking over the land when he was in office? When would you personally depart from your cute but ineffectual seatbelt example and take a good hard long objective look at the system being built? I don't trust these people. They want power and control.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#717

Post by redler » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 2:14 AM UTC

rednerrus wrote: post #461

jowday wrote: post #189

The answer is pretty simple - the moment authorities start saying "well, natural immunity is probably just as good as vaccination, we'll accept that as equal to vaccination for passport purposes", a huge segment of the population who's on the fence about getting the vaccine might just opt to wait until they're infected naturally, or, even worse, get infected purposefully (EG, chicken pox parties). Which leads to more…

It seems like the best solution, if you're a healthy adult, is to get vaccinated then expose yourself to a variant better tolerated by the vaccines.

Since we will all likely be exposed, I find it hard to fathom the logic that it’s not better, from a risk perspective, to encounter it vaccinated.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#718

Post by jonnycomputer » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 2:15 AM UTC

throwawayfear wrote: post #314

jowday wrote: post #189

The answer is pretty simple - the moment authorities start saying "well, natural immunity is probably just as good as vaccination, we'll accept that as equal to vaccination for passport purposes", a huge segment of the population who's on the fence about getting the vaccine might just opt to wait until they're infected naturally, or, even worse, get infected purposefully (EG, chicken pox parties). Which leads to more…

Past covid gives antibodies that are superior to two shots of Pfizer. https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-on... So yes, it IS just as good as the vaccination and should be treated as such. Vaccinating people for the sake of vaccinating them is illogical here. And don't even get me started on vaccine passports, which are completely unnecessary. If a place of employment absolutely needs proof of v…

I would hesitate to take one study as definitive either way. Also, I've seen data pointing to important variables of possible interest moderating the potential effectiveness, including age, and severity of first infection.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#719

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 2:18 AM UTC

dham wrote: post #685

MSM wrote: post #620

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Should we tell people to get their BMI under 25 too? >What about drinking and smoking? There's a lot of investment in trying to fix these problems already, or at least offset the costs. For example, there are "sin taxes" for things like cigarettes and alcohol, which means smokers and drinkers are paying disproportionately more taxes than those that don't. You could argue that overweight folks are also paying disprop…

> Let's say, hypothetically, there existed a free shot which would immediately make its recipient a perfectly lean 20 BMI and grants all the benefits of health and exercise without the work I would be very skeptical and wonder what the downside is

[deleted]

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#720

Post by kcplate » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 2:20 AM UTC

jeromegv wrote: post #659

opnitro wrote: post #638

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You provide 3 sources, yet don't cite a source for the claim that ~10k have died from the vaccine. Could we have a citation for that one?

That person is writing in a way that looks fact based but is not. As you noticed, some statements of what is supposed to be accepted as true are false. For example, all the vaccines still protect extremely well against hospitalization and death EVEN with Delta. Which is what this whole discussion is about, why vaccines help to keep our hospitals open. So the fact that they would say that the vaccine isn't really help…

I think this whole “rah rah do it for the community” is the wrong message to send to the final group of the unvaccinated. The government needs to message on the benefit to the individual.

I can tell you that the ONLY reason I am vaccinated is because I want to maximize my chances of the negative consequences of Covid impact TO ME. I honestly don’t give two shits about anyone else outside my family. As some of you do gooders read this in horror, realize that among the general populace, most people’s motivation behind their decision to vaccinate is not that far from mine.

No one likes to admit it, but objectivism and what’s in it for me are a lot more prevalent than folks like to admit. If our government was smart, they’d realize that and shift the message accordingly.