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Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

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Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#651

Post by mthoms »

gorwell wrote: post #451
SigmundA wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the full response better convey's his position: "You know, that's a really good point, Sanjay. I don't have a really firm answer for you on that. That's something that we're going to have to discuss regarding the durability of the response. The one thing that paper from Israel didn't tell you is whether or not as high as the protection is with natural infection, what's the durability compared to the durabilit…

The point is that they STILL haven't considered natural immunity. Why not? That is a bizarre oversight, especially at this point.

Do you have knowledge about what they are discussing/researching at the CDC?

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#652

Post by BHSPitMonkey »

fridif wrote: post #624
steveywevy wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Source?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad... "7,653 reports of death" is the string to ctrl-f for

You should probably continue reading at least to the end of a paragraph if it's the basis of an argument you're making:

"FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause. Reports of adverse events to VAERS following vaccination, including deaths, do not necessarily mean that a vaccine caused a health problem."

This is essentially an unrestricted database containing raw reports. Nothing is done to eliminate or control for the entries where the cause of death is unrelated to the vaccine, and the data isn't a replacement for a controlled study.

Deaths that can actually be attributed to reactions to the vaccine are so far much lower than that figure (and even if they weren't, millions of people have been vaccinated; COVID-19 is significantly more likely to kill you or leave you with long-term health problems).

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#653

Post by volker48 »

OrvalWintermute wrote: post #622
kristjansson wrote: post #525

Because it's a terrible policy prescription. If natural immunity is acceptable, what proportion of the unvaccinated-uninfected population will just take the risk? Half? More? Millions of people will just (continue to) take the risk, get sick, go to hospital, and die (in decreasing proportions), incurring substantial personal and social costs along the way. Accepting only vaccination as evidence of protection reduces…

> Because it's a terrible policy prescription. If natural immunity is acceptable, what proportion of the unvaccinated-uninfected population will just take the risk? Half? More? What we know : We know that vaccines are of great value for high risk populations. We know that vaccines are contraindicated for a number of patients and have some pretty severe side effects for those with allergies. We know that the vaccines…

> We know that the vaccine efficacy is greatly reduced with Delta variants

Even with Delta vaccinated have 5X reduced risk of infection https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm.

> undetermined number of patients allegedly around 10k have died from covid vaccine side effects

Have you seen a credible source with this information?

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#654

Post by carom »

glangdale wrote: post #575
ixacto wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To reply as the devils advocate to this comment, what is the tolerance to social costs that society is willing to bear? Also why would one segment of society have to do something that it doesn't want e.g. not bear risk if they want to? Should we tell people to get their BMI under 25 too? Overweight and obesity are going to cost much more in increased healthcare costs than COVID will in the coming decades (pls prove m…

Aside from DUI risk and passive smoking, most of these risks are specific to the person. I can't catch obesity from being in the same room as a obese person, and while public health costs go up from drinkers/smokers/heavy people, I haven't heard of ambulances being gridlocked outside a hospital due to a spike of lifestyle diseases.

This pandemic would be a blip if everyone was in shape.

>CFR (case fatality ratio) in the large cohort in China was elevated for patients with comorbidities, with 10.5% of those with underlying cardiovascular disease, 7.3% of those with diabetes, 6.3% of those with chronic respiratory disease, and 5.6% of those with cancer dying of COVID-related illness. [1]

That looks like a clean 17% reduction for cardiovascular disease and diabetes. So yes, hospitals are getting gridlocked during this pandemic because of lifestyle diseases.

>The NCHS statement broke down the death certificates mentioning COVID-19. For 94% of people who had COVID-19 also had other conditions listed. COVID-19 alone was cause of death for 6%.

>Dr. Maja Artandi ( here ), medical director of the Stanford CROWN Clinic for COVID-19 patients ( here ), told Reuters via email that the CDC’s numbers “are really not a big surprise,” as “patients who have a comorbidity such as diabetes, hypertension or obesity have a higher risk of getting seriously ill and dying from COVID-19.” [2]

Without COVID they would still be alive, but no doubt lifestyle disease has been a serious contributing factor to deaths during this pandemic.

1. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guida... 2.https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-94-percent-covi...

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#655

Post by seanmcdirmid »

ixacto wrote: post #536
kristjansson wrote: post #525

Because it's a terrible policy prescription. If natural immunity is acceptable, what proportion of the unvaccinated-uninfected population will just take the risk? Half? More? Millions of people will just (continue to) take the risk, get sick, go to hospital, and die (in decreasing proportions), incurring substantial personal and social costs along the way. Accepting only vaccination as evidence of protection reduces…

To reply as the devils advocate to this comment, what is the tolerance to social costs that society is willing to bear? Also why would one segment of society have to do something that it doesn't want e.g. not bear risk if they want to? Should we tell people to get their BMI under 25 too? Overweight and obesity are going to cost much more in increased healthcare costs than COVID will in the coming decades (pls prove m…

Wasn’t that the whole point of Michelle Obama’s healthy school lunch drive? And the conservatives who are largely against mandated vaccines today also declared that initiative as government going too far. People living in conservative states are also far more obese than liberal ones (California vs Texas, for example). Conservatives, at least, are being consistent.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#656

Post by cdolan »

jjeaff wrote: post #120
darthvoldemort wrote: post #21

A recent study from Israel said that natural immunity is an order of magnitude better than vaccine-induced immunity against delta variant. I don't know who to believe, but if that's the case, then the narrative of "well they should get vaccinated anyway" is really freaking suspicious. We need deeper research on this, and the fact that they haven't researched this is truly scary.

I think the biggest issue is that a lot of people think they had covid previously but didn't get tested so they don't really know. I thought I had covid early in the pandemic. Took a serology test and found out that I had not had it. I suspect a lot of people that think they had it are the same.

What if you do have a positive test in your history?

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#657

Post by nradov »

elihu wrote: post #545
bedhead wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amen. We have been so unbelievably myopic with COVID it truly hurts my head. Even today, ask someone who's COVID-obsessed, "What exactly is your longer-term plan here?" and watch as their mind breaks down. Too many people have completely stopped thinking about what they're trying to achieve and how they're going to do it. Half the country is just stuck, focused on short-term and no attention paid to anything else and…

Long term plan in my mind was to get enough people vaccinated that community spread stops being a thing. We were almost there in late spring prior to delta variant showing up, but now the situation has changed and the percentage of the population that has to be immune to stop the virus has gotten a lot higher. So now the long term plan is for the holdouts to either change their minds and get vaccinated (and many of t…

The virus is now endemic and can never be eradicated. The Delta variant is so contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect unvaccinated people. All of us can expect to be exposed occasionally no matter what we do.

https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

In the US, adults who want to be vaccinated have been vaccinated. Children aren't at significant risk. So the best approach is to drop all restrictions and accept the risk.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#658

Post by peteradio »

pessimizer wrote: post #392
ars wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Adobe Acrobat can easily change anyones name on a piece of paper with a blood test result It's even easier to fake vaccination status. Blank COVID cards are widely available. Most of them are handwritten - and even when vaccinated, they give them to you blank, you fill in your own name at home. > Now, does anyone think the US can pull off getting peoples SSN , connect it to a blood test, send the SSN+result to the…

> It's even easier to fake vaccination status. Blank COVID cards are widely available. Most of them are handwritten - and even when vaccinated, they give them to you blank, you fill in your own name at home. That's absolutely true, because the government response has been disorganized and bullshit. It's also why vax passes won't work; because the records are probably trash. > No, Americans are not bad at that - rathe…

There are more unvaccinated truth tellers than unvaccinated liars according to the statistics.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#659

Post by jeromegv »

opnitro wrote: post #638
OrvalWintermute wrote: post #622

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because it's a terrible policy prescription. If natural immunity is acceptable, what proportion of the unvaccinated-uninfected population will just take the risk? Half? More? What we know : We know that vaccines are of great value for high risk populations. We know that vaccines are contraindicated for a number of patients and have some pretty severe side effects for those with allergies. We know that the vaccines…

You provide 3 sources, yet don't cite a source for the claim that ~10k have died from the vaccine. Could we have a citation for that one?

That person is writing in a way that looks fact based but is not. As you noticed, some statements of what is supposed to be accepted as true are false.

For example, all the vaccines still protect extremely well against hospitalization and death EVEN with Delta. Which is what this whole discussion is about, why vaccines help to keep our hospitals open. So the fact that they would say that the vaccine isn't really helpful anymore because of delta is just purely false.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#660

Post by seanmcdirmid »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #560
ixacto wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To reply as the devils advocate to this comment, what is the tolerance to social costs that society is willing to bear? Also why would one segment of society have to do something that it doesn't want e.g. not bear risk if they want to? Should we tell people to get their BMI under 25 too? Overweight and obesity are going to cost much more in increased healthcare costs than COVID will in the coming decades (pls prove m…

It's not a binary. Sure, you should be able to take the risk (if an adult and mentally competent, and maybe also fully informed). It's a free country (or so they claim). But when your choices rack up huge medical bills that the rest of us have to pay, then your freedom to do what you want collides with our freedom to not have to pay for it. If you're free to spend my money, then I'm less free. But that isn't absolute…

There are societal costs for obesity as well, but they aren’t socialized early enough in the USA, and their increased cost burden on Medicare is paired with a decrease cost burden on social security.

Not that it’s an excuse (we should mandate vaccines and also deal with obesity on a societal level, both are good, one is more urgent than the other).

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