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Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

bmj.com

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Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#581

Post by javagram »

Tycho wrote: post #485
oplav wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know how the rate compares to 2019?

Without looking extensively, it seems that it's usually between 1000 and 1500 per 100k per annum , so between 20 to 30 per week as a direct comparison. This seems steady over recent history. This compared to a rate for the vaccinated that went from 20 to 100 over spring and summer. The only thing that springs to mind is that maybe the treatment of with-covid/from-covid deaths became less significant through the year…

The “100” is specifically for the population of 21 days after first dose, i.e. those who didn’t get their second dose of vaccine. You can see the population who fall into the “21 days after” shrinks the whole time the “Second dose” population grows. Probably there’s something specific to those people who didn’t get or were unable to get the second dose of the vaccine that elevates their risk of mortality, like poverty, low education, or poor health.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#582

Post by TimTheTinker »

favorited wrote: post #511
TimTheTinker wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every year influenza mutates. The flu booster shot is actually a full vaccination based on the leading 2-3 variants they predict will be dominant in the coming flu season. Also, flu vaccines are based on weakened viral particles, not mRNA transcriptions of key viral proteins... so the two really aren't comparable.

> flu vaccines are based on weakened viral particles, not mRNA transcriptions of key viral proteins Thankfully this is changing. Moderna is entering trials for an mRNA vaccine for seasonal flu. The faster development time for mRNA vaccines will mean more time to study the emerging flu strains before committing to which to include in the booster.

It will be very interesting to study the effects of an mRNA shot on the epidemiology of influenza.

Being less politically loaded, perhaps such studies could shed insight on COVID epidemiology and help improve policy.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#583

Post by noofen »

mactitan wrote: post #483
wrl wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That article was published on 4th December, 2020. Have the concerns expressed therein borne out in the 10 month interim?

Yes it’s interesting that they are using previous corona profiles. You would think a yr is long enough but I’m patient and will hedge my bet by losing my job.

Since you appear to have skin in the game, I recommend reading Geert Vanden Bossche's latest post [0] on the long-term effects of vaccine mandates. He's been ostracized from the "experts", but has a lot of experience in vaccine research.

It's a little disturbing.

[0]: https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/the-last-post

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#584

Post by MarkLowenstein »

DiabloD3 wrote: post #147
stronglikedan wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or don't. It's a personal choice.

It's only a personal choice if you do not come in contact with anyone else as best as you can. Else, you run the risk of being infected, not knowing it, passing it onto other people who "have made a personal choice", involuntary manslaughtering them (unless you're religious, then you've biblically murdered them); or, alternatively, you run the risk of ending up in the ICU, and now somebody who did get the vaccine now…

Since vaccinated are spreading this around nearly as much as unvaccinated, the involuntary manslaughter argument is moot. Getting your own vaccine doesn't help other people not die...only you. Even high-vaccination regions are having waves of infection that dwarf previous ones. (Israel, Scotland, Hawaii)

That said, allowing civil suits to punish people that gave you a virus that killed you, would be effective to keep both vaxed and unvaxxed careful and staying at home while sick. Hard to prove where you got it, but just a few successful suits will keep people honest.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#585

Post by Tycho »

glial wrote: post #562
Tycho wrote: post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without looking extensively, it seems that it's usually between 1000 and 1500 per 100k per annum , so between 20 to 30 per week as a direct comparison. This seems steady over recent history. This compared to a rate for the vaccinated that went from 20 to 100 over spring and summer. The only thing that springs to mind is that maybe the treatment of with-covid/from-covid deaths became less significant through the year…

I took a look at the data, and it looks like deaths after 1 dose go up by ~3x vs unvaccinated, while deaths after 2 doses go down ~3x vs unvaccinated. Am I reading that right? Any idea why that might be?

Are you referring to table 5, non-covid deaths? 2-dosed people have a lower absolute rate, but it still trends steadily upwards while unvaccinated trend steadily downwards.

Or are you referring to the deaths from covid?

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#586

Post by wrycoder »

refulgentis wrote: post #541
ixacto wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To reply as the devils advocate to this comment, what is the tolerance to social costs that society is willing to bear? Also why would one segment of society have to do something that it doesn't want e.g. not bear risk if they want to? Should we tell people to get their BMI under 25 too? Overweight and obesity are going to cost much more in increased healthcare costs than COVID will in the coming decades (pls prove m…

The line seems to be drawn at socializing the risks of full hospital ICUs in a region Edit: why the downvote to near-dead? I thought that's what the author emphasized :\

ICUs normally run at 80%. This is gaslighting.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#587

Post by cjdaly »

elihu wrote: post #545
bedhead wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amen. We have been so unbelievably myopic with COVID it truly hurts my head. Even today, ask someone who's COVID-obsessed, "What exactly is your longer-term plan here?" and watch as their mind breaks down. Too many people have completely stopped thinking about what they're trying to achieve and how they're going to do it. Half the country is just stuck, focused on short-term and no attention paid to anything else and…

Long term plan in my mind was to get enough people vaccinated that community spread stops being a thing. We were almost there in late spring prior to delta variant showing up, but now the situation has changed and the percentage of the population that has to be immune to stop the virus has gotten a lot higher. So now the long term plan is for the holdouts to either change their minds and get vaccinated (and many of t…

> get enough people vaccinated that community spread stops being a thing

The problem with this plan is that vaccinated people still catch and spread the virus. The available vaccines do not create "herd immunity" in the traditional sense.

I think the best argument for getting a vaccine now is you will be much less likely to get hospitalized (and/or die) if you catch COVID after being vaccinated. But that argument may not apply to people who already caught it, recovered and now have some natural immunity.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#588

Post by trainsplanes »

ghiculescu wrote: post #533
kristjansson wrote: post #525

Because it's a terrible policy prescription. If natural immunity is acceptable, what proportion of the unvaccinated-uninfected population will just take the risk? Half? More? Millions of people will just (continue to) take the risk, get sick, go to hospital, and die (in decreasing proportions), incurring substantial personal and social costs along the way. Accepting only vaccination as evidence of protection reduces…

If hospitals didn’t overflow and society didn’t crumble for most of 2020 (when there was 0% vaccination), it’s odd to argue that it will now that there is 65% vaccination.

A bunch of hospitals are more strained now than they ever were. Covid's more infectious now and some staff have quit.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#589

Post by evancox100 »

jowday wrote: post #376
bedhead wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amen. We have been so unbelievably myopic with COVID it truly hurts my head. Even today, ask someone who's COVID-obsessed, "What exactly is your longer-term plan here?" and watch as their mind breaks down. Too many people have completely stopped thinking about what they're trying to achieve and how they're going to do it. Half the country is just stuck, focused on short-term and no attention paid to anything else and…

>Half the country is just stuck, focused on short-term and no attention paid to anything else and it's freakin disastrous. The pandemic is largely over culturally and mentally for pretty much all of the country - I'm in the middle of San Francisco and the only real remaining enforced anti-COVID measures are flashing your vaccine card before going into bars, masks inside of gyms, and masking and demasking when you ent…

I am not in Bay Area, but a coworker who is just told me today his ~4 year old in day care has to be masked all day.

Re: Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?

#590

Post by linuxhansl »

Personally I think it should be perfectly acceptable to provide a serology test that shows you had Covid in lieu of a vaccination.

That is a statement about the past: "I am immune and here's proof. (either by vaccination or serology test)"

What we do about the future to contain the pandemic is separate question. If you're not a immune you should get a vaccine now.

That is the statement about the future: "I will get vaccinated, because I am not yet immune."

In an ideal world we'd be done here. Together these two statements make perfect sense to me.

Unfortunately there is some inexplicable (again, to me) resistance to getting the vaccine in some people. And hence it is not wise to end here.

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