Live data from Hacker News

United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

reuters.com

231–240 of 518 posts

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#231

Please note that there are two other credit rating agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, and both of them have stated that they have no current plans to downgrade US debt from AAA, although one of them did place a negative outlook on the US. So, generally as long as one of the three agencies has a AAA rating the debt is usually fine for most investment / trust purposes.

But now S&P has provided the others 'cover' for downgrading.

Since part of the reasoning of S&P was that US politicians were willing to play chicken with events of default, I don't see that this is an easy hole for the US to dig out of. The fact that politicians in the US were openly discussing 'how bad would a default really be' sums up why the AAA rating was no longer deserved.

IMHO, 80% likely that the other agencies will follow within a couple of weeks.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#233
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's a fact - you don't tax your way out of a recession and you sure as hell don't tax people to create jobs. It simply doesn't work. If it is a fact, where is the data? Economies are stimulated by people spending money. A tax cut to someone making 50,000 dollars a year is going to have a greater percentage of it spent than a tax cut to someone making 5,000,000 a year. Conversely, a 5-10% tax increase isn't going to…

You take the Keynesian view. It's difficult to discuss this in more than a soundbite, but the Hayekian view is well explained by these two videos: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc Well worth watching if you haven't seen them. In short, the opposite/Hayekian view contends that taxation is seizure of resources from profitable/efficient entities and redistribution tow…

The Hayekian view here seems patently false according to Moody's research firm, which determined in 2008 that the most cost effective stimulus was food stamps and the least effective was business incentives such as tax breaks for buying new equipment.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/29/news/economy/stimulus_analys...

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#234
post #52

(Reference: http://www.federalbudget.com/ ) Steps to recovery: 1) End all offensive military actions overseas. Finish winding down Iraq and abandon Afghanistan wholesale. These actions have cost several trillion dollars over the last 10 years. We can't get that money back, but we can stop spending more. 2) Defense spending is in the top 3 highest budget expenditures. Cut it by 1 third across the board. Maintain impor…

Tearing the healthcare system down to it's nuts and bolts would costs a lot more than to continue reforming. I spent some time consulting hospitals an implementing electronic medical record systems for hospitals. It costs a hospital millions of dollars and thousands of hours to install and train people for these systems. Too many hospitals are too deep in these EMR systems to start from scratch again. Their margins a…

By "sometimes" you mean, "nearly all the damn time".

As an incrementalist coder, it frustrates me to see how non-incremental the approach to solving social problems often is. Decouple, solve one thing at a time, etc.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#235
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real problem is that the republicans are zealots of the church of voodoo economics. The reality is that demand-side economics has stronger and more intelligent underpinnings (give money to individuals --> they spend --> increase demand --> hiring). Giving more cash to companies doesn't induce hiring; demand for products induces hiring.

You are absolutely correct here. When people have more money they tend to spend more and sales at corporations increase and thus the invest and hire more employees to meet the increased demand. How do we get more money in hand? Full payroll tax holiday + New deal 2.0.

We couldn't even pass New Deal 0.3b today, man. Can dream, though...

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#236
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think borrowed money is "cheap"? We're not paying it back. Any of it. At best we can cover the interest payments. Why do you think this won't blow up in our faces?

Interest has not become a huge issue, but in any case - so what? They got the money for cheap, it has (presumably) fueled growth. Beating 1.5% over five years is not difficult - the idea is to borrow money to accelerate growth - increase prosperity of America, which would return more than 1.5%. Not all debt is bad.

This requires allowing the government to consider tax income as a revenue stream, which isn't playing well politically right now. We're supposed to think of taxes as money the government had no right to collect in the first place, and which the only right thing for it to do with is give it back.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#237
The SEC should criminally prosecute S&P, Fitch and Moody's for their corrupt participation in the financial meltdown. It should have been done sooner (the case was already made). To do so now would look like vengeance. But if vengeance is required then vengeance should be served.

Put their controlling officers in jail and shut down the companies forever.

http://www.housingwire.com/2011/04/14/credit-ratings-agencie...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/13/credit-rating-agenc...

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#238
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On point #3, while I'm sure it can be better, it is worth noting out that historically medicare has done better at cost management than private healthcare ( http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/29/medicare-versus-... ). I don't have the answer either, but health is one of those areas we know enough about yet to optimize using the same techniques you would in manufacturing, for instance. It is about investing in p…

It's fairly widely understood (though I guess not by Professor Krugman) that Medicare offloads some of its own costs onto the private sector by the below-market rates it pays providers. He's also neglecting to make a real comparison of the services that private health care provides vs. Medicare. Sure, private insurance premiums may have risen faster than Medicare spending during the '90s, but Medicare wasn't even pay…

> It's fairly widely understood (though I guess not by Professor Krugman) that Medicare offloads some of its own costs onto the private sector by the below-market rates it pays providers.

This is fairly widely claimed, but it's a pretty weak claim. Doctors are not required to accept Medicare. They choose to do so. They choose to accept the rates Medicare offers. When one party offers an amount for a second party's services, and the second party accepts, they have just established the market rate for that transaction.

This claim also conveniently ignores the fact that insurance companies do the same thing. Check over a medical statement from your insurance company some time. You'll see where the doctor billed $300 for "nasal deconfrabulation", your copay was $25, and the insurance paid $125. Total due: $0.

> He's also neglecting to make a real comparison of the services that private health care provides vs. Medicare. Sure, private insurance premiums may have risen faster than Medicare spending during the '90s, but Medicare wasn't even paying for prescription drugs (a huge cost driver) until Part D was implemented in 2006.

The status of Medicare in 2006 seems to have little relevance to Medicare today. The first question is how much Medicare spends today per client vs how much private insurance spends per client, on average. The second question is how coverage differs in these scenarios. How does Medicare compare to the average insurance policy? I don't know the real answer to these questions, but I know Medicare's coverage or lack of coverage for prescription drugs in 2006 isn't relevant.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#239
post #29

Didn't S&P maintain that Lehman Brothers had a favorable rating up until they collapsed? And in the subsequent congressional hearings the rating agencies simply responded that the rating is their opinion. Why do people put so much faith in these ratings when they have proven to be not very useful in evaluating the risk associated with investing in an institution?

People put faith in them because not everyone can hire an army of experts to evaluate all possible investments. S&P supplies their ratings to life insurance companies, pensions funds and even municipal governments. These entities don't have the resources to employ that expertise in-house, so they rely on companies like S&P and Moody's to give them guidance.

thematt says

"so they rely on companies like S&P and Moody's to give them guidance."

And those companies fabricate data and sell it to them.

Perhaps not everyone should invest in areas where they have no possibility of understanding the risks.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#240
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a lot that doesn't make any sense. As you say, interest rates are low. Plenty of people are out of work. To me, that says, "perfect time to build and repair infrastructure!" Whether you believe FDR's New Deal helped or hindered recovery from the Great Depression, the simple, business-oriented financials of it would seem to indicate that right now is the time to be building roads, trains, dams, nuclear plants,…

That's exactly what I thought the response would have been. Cheap money, low employment - hire lots of people to do stuff. But it seems like the public opinion is that this debt is bad, and I'm don't understand why entirely. I mean, I see a lot of comparisons to credit card debt, so is it just lack of education/understanding?

If I could get a credit card that charged 1.5% interest, I would start borrowing to make my own damn roads.
Post reply on HN