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United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

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Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#151
post #52

(Reference: http://www.federalbudget.com/ ) Steps to recovery: 1) End all offensive military actions overseas. Finish winding down Iraq and abandon Afghanistan wholesale. These actions have cost several trillion dollars over the last 10 years. We can't get that money back, but we can stop spending more. 2) Defense spending is in the top 3 highest budget expenditures. Cut it by 1 third across the board. Maintain impor…

You're more liberal than conservative. I'm more conservative than liberal. Bless your heart, I agree with all of your points. At the end of the Cold War, other conservatives were making the same noises that you're making now. For their pains, their careers were destroyed by the people who run the current mainstream conservative movement. Let's take a look at those points of yours. Points 1 & 2. Cut defense spending a…

Also, remember that the United States is bound by treaty to defend more than two dozen nations. That includes keeping bases in some of those nations. Those treaties will have to be renegotiated. Those nations will have to increase their own defense spending.

Not having read the North Atlantic Treaty, I don't know that the US has any special obligation above and beyond the rest of the NATO members. Yes, the US is obligated by treaty to defend Latvia, but by the same token Latvia is obligated by treaty to defend the US. American deployments to Europe are likely above and beyond American treaty obligations.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#152
post #126
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This all makes good sense and would make a great political party's campaign. The problem is, it wouldn't work. The economy, as small as any small country, isn't a piece of programming. You don't audit and refactor, or rewrite parts and plug it all in. It's made of generations of flesh and bones, all of which have worked their guts out to get whatever it is you're trying to take from them. In a tyranny, maybe. In demo…

This is a completely bullshit way of thinking. Its also just another example of the defeatist attitude so many people in this country have. "Oh, the problem is too big to handle" or "Welp, that's just the way it is". You ABSOLUTELY audit and refactor a society. Every time the country has gotten a bit more free with a new law or court decision, that's a refactor that improves the system. Sometimes people have added pa…

Look, I get it, you're pissed. But the real world isn't a framework, and that's all I'm saying.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#154
post #52

(Reference: http://www.federalbudget.com/ ) Steps to recovery: 1) End all offensive military actions overseas. Finish winding down Iraq and abandon Afghanistan wholesale. These actions have cost several trillion dollars over the last 10 years. We can't get that money back, but we can stop spending more. 2) Defense spending is in the top 3 highest budget expenditures. Cut it by 1 third across the board. Maintain impor…

On point #3, while I'm sure it can be better, it is worth noting out that historically medicare has done better at cost management than private healthcare (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/29/medicare-versus-...). I don't have the answer either, but health is one of those areas we know enough about yet to optimize using the same techniques you would in manufacturing, for instance. It is about investing in preventative measures as it is in reactive treatments. In Canada we face similar issues where more of our tax dollars being spent on healthcare with lesser returns. This is due in part to an ageing population, but can also be attributed to the lack of broader innovation in the delivery of care. A first step would be to encourage a more team-oriented approach where the doctor's lobby group (aka union) doesn't retain so much influence and control over policy decisions. From afar it looks like the private insurance lobby is one of the larger distractions preventing the US from getting down to the real issues of efficient and effective health practices.

On the business front propping up failing business models is a tough one. There is something to be said about preventing a complete and sudden collapse. The number of unemployed would hit the system in so many other ways. What we have seen from the auto industry, as much as I disagreed with the bailouts, is reinvention and retooling. I hope they take their bailouts with a great deal of thankfulness and invest wisely. I look at the next generation of companies like Tesla Motors and hope that more auto industry giants will seek to innovate and evolve rather than focus on just getting bigger (and slower).

The message I believe we all (conservative and liberal) can and should agree on is respect for the tax payer dollar. Money in government isn't free, the debt and deficit isn't free. As they plan out capital and operating expenses they need to do so with an passion towards building a better country while taking calculated measures and risks. Government's role, in my mind, isn't to innovate itself but instead to facilitate innovation by its people. It should focus on facilitating the success of the people through "just enough" regulation which means refactoring how they work on a regular basis to find the most effective means in which to operate. They need to continue to question their own purposes, not get comfortable in the security of a public sector job for life. Most importantly they need to share with their shareholders, we the people, on their progress in an open and transparent manner. I don't need fancy marketing campaigns to tell me about the good work that they do, but I don't want to see them hiding it either. One way to do this is to add a more direct measure of how tax dollars are spent. In Canada we pay a good portion of our taxes into a general revenue pool. I would like to see that eliminated in favour of a clear indication of what portion of my taxes go towards specific ministries or sectors of government. I think that next level of granularity would provide a bit more awareness that public money really belongs to the public.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#155
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't think it this really matters. The US still has the strongest economy of pretty much anyone (even with recession). There isn't going to be a massive dumping of US bonds. The AAA credit rating is helpful, but is only used by certain investors, and those big enough to make a real difference have their own assessors of risk. I think the cutoff for the smaller guys to be legal to invest in is something like AA-. We…

Even if you tax the hell out of the rich, it still leaves this country TRILLIONS in debt. It's a fact - you don't tax your way out of a recession and you sure as hell don't tax people to create jobs. It simply doesn't work. And yeah, great idea. Let's cut military funding while we're fighting a war on terror in three countries. Apparently you don't remember Clinton's military cuts which removed almost 300,000 people…

Trillions in debt is perfectly fine for an economy as large as America's. It's tens of trillions where you have a problem long-term.

I agree that you should just run the short-term deficits. That said, if we have to cut short-term deficits (which I don't think is a wise strategy), it is significantly better to tax the rich than cut benefit programs.

Finally on military, I'd feel it'd be a better use of resources to transfer the 300,000 people to infrastructure projects. The ROI on the investment is much better than the wars where we have ground-troops.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#156
The real story is that S&P thinks downgrading the US debt will provide political cover against investigations into their role in the mortgage securities debacle by the SEC and Justice. They were determined to downgrade no matter what. Their original justification is the US didn't make their $4 trillion cut target. When Treasury showed them a $2 trillion dollar error in their arithmetic, they changed the justification to political gridlock. Time for a perp walk.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#157
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What constitutes defense spending nowadays? Is it largely salary payments to current troops? Wouldn't we have to deal with a large unemployment problem in case we laid off a bunch of military employees and told them to go find a job somewhere else? Or is it payment to defense contractors, such as Valley's own Lockheed Martin? Wouldn't this cause a large number of people to be unemployed, contributing to recession?

Is it the government's job to keep people employed for the sake of employing them? No! There are times in history where government spending can help , like during the Great Depression. The government spent a lot of money on public works projects to help put some people back to work. But this didn't do much to actually end the depression. It was the onset of WWII and the subsequent ramp-up to a war economy that really…

> Is it the government's job to keep people employed for the sake of employing them? No!

The most basic task of government is to maintain a stable social order (see, e.g., the preamble to the U.S. Constitution). With sustained, pervasive unemployment comes social unrest (see any number of examples from the past 100 years). So ....

> The government spent a lot of money on public works projects to help put some people back to work. But this didn't do much to actually end the depression. It was the onset of WWII and the subsequent ramp-up to a war economy that really ended the Depression.

According to most economists (from what I've read), the New Deal was doing OK at getting people back to work until 1937, when the government suddenly cut its spending and raised taxes. That threw the economy back into recession.[1] And yes, the massive deficit spending of WWII did indeed pretty much take care of unemployment, and then some.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1937

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#158
post #133
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. I have no refutations to any of your comments. I know exactly what you mean. One interesting thing about your first statement, "At the end of the Cold War, other conservatives were making the same noises that you're making now". A few years ago I had the opportunity to hear Francis Fukuyama speak. He was the author of The End of History and a later follow up book. I never knew it before then, but he was one o…

Ah, followup. Here's the link to the talk I referenced if anyone cares to take a listen. http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jun/28/the-end-of-history-...

I'd love to listen to this, but it seems like the mp3 is corrupted. It won'd play in iTunes or Quicktime. Shame.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#159
One minor elephant in the room that only a few seem to be mentioning is the 500+ point selloff on Thursday.

On Thursday evening, the economist talking-heads expressed some confusion about what was driving that sell-off on that particular day. There was vague talk of problems in Europe, although there has been worse news out of the Eurozone for months without that kind of drop.

On Friday, we get the S & P announcement of a decision that may impact markets. One can only imagine when this particular decision was actually made.

What drove the sell-off on Thursday?

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#160
Wanted to check out Krugman's take on this:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/sp-and-the-usa/

TLDR:

1) The 'madness of the right' holding the debt-ceiling hostage cost us the confidence of investors (and S&P).

2) The ratings agencies have shown they aren't qualified to rate anything, much less sovereign debt.

3) S&P miscalculated the downgrade by $2T before going ahead with it anyway.

4) S&P's magic number for averting a downgrade was $4T deficit reduction over the next decade. The Congressional deal failed to reach that, but according to Krugman that number is barely relevant to the US debt costs and should not effect the credit rating. The real downgrade risk is with long-term unfunded healthcare liabilities, which S&P seems to have ignored here.

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