United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P • Hacker News Board

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#131

Post by rmrm » Sat, Aug 06, 2011, 2:12 AM UTC

geuis wrote: post #108

prostoalex wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What constitutes defense spending nowadays? Is it largely salary payments to current troops? Wouldn't we have to deal with a large unemployment problem in case we laid off a bunch of military employees and told them to go find a job somewhere else? Or is it payment to defense contractors, such as Valley's own Lockheed Martin? Wouldn't this cause a large number of people to be unemployed, contributing to recession?

Is it the government's job to keep people employed for the sake of employing them? No! There are times in history where government spending can help , like during the Great Depression. The government spent a lot of money on public works projects to help put some people back to work. But this didn't do much to actually end the depression. It was the onset of WWII and the subsequent ramp-up to a war economy that really…

WWII and the rampup was still a public works project.

What really turned the economy for good imo was not WWII but the result of WWII -- all of our competitors on the international stage having large parts of their population and infrastructure destroyed. A few year grace period while the rest of the world rebuilt turned into 50 years of global corporate hegemony.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#132

Post by ataranto » Sat, Aug 06, 2011, 2:12 AM UTC

winestock wrote: post #72

geuis wrote: post #52

(Reference: http://www.federalbudget.com/ ) Steps to recovery: 1) End all offensive military actions overseas. Finish winding down Iraq and abandon Afghanistan wholesale. These actions have cost several trillion dollars over the last 10 years. We can't get that money back, but we can stop spending more. 2) Defense spending is in the top 3 highest budget expenditures. Cut it by 1 third across the board. Maintain impor…

You're more liberal than conservative. I'm more conservative than liberal. Bless your heart, I agree with all of your points. At the end of the Cold War, other conservatives were making the same noises that you're making now. For their pains, their careers were destroyed by the people who run the current mainstream conservative movement. Let's take a look at those points of yours. Points 1 & 2. Cut defense spending a…

There's a huge gap between isolationism and, you know, not occupying TWO countries on the other side of the planet.

I stopped reading your comment after that sentence with the assumption that all of your other points would be equally dumb.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#133

Post by geuis » Sat, Aug 06, 2011, 2:12 AM UTC

geuis wrote: post #102

winestock wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're more liberal than conservative. I'm more conservative than liberal. Bless your heart, I agree with all of your points. At the end of the Cold War, other conservatives were making the same noises that you're making now. For their pains, their careers were destroyed by the people who run the current mainstream conservative movement. Let's take a look at those points of yours. Points 1 & 2. Cut defense spending a…

Thanks. I have no refutations to any of your comments. I know exactly what you mean. One interesting thing about your first statement, "At the end of the Cold War, other conservatives were making the same noises that you're making now". A few years ago I had the opportunity to hear Francis Fukuyama speak. He was the author of The End of History and a later follow up book. I never knew it before then, but he was one o…

Ah, followup. Here's the link to the talk I referenced if anyone cares to take a listen. http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jun/28/the-end-of-history-...

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#134

Post by winestock » Sat, Aug 06, 2011, 2:12 AM UTC

geuis wrote: post #102

winestock wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're more liberal than conservative. I'm more conservative than liberal. Bless your heart, I agree with all of your points. At the end of the Cold War, other conservatives were making the same noises that you're making now. For their pains, their careers were destroyed by the people who run the current mainstream conservative movement. Let's take a look at those points of yours. Points 1 & 2. Cut defense spending a…

Thanks. I have no refutations to any of your comments. I know exactly what you mean. One interesting thing about your first statement, "At the end of the Cold War, other conservatives were making the same noises that you're making now". A few years ago I had the opportunity to hear Francis Fukuyama speak. He was the author of The End of History and a later follow up book. I never knew it before then, but he was one o…

When Fukuyama was talking about the Evangelical Christians, I think that he meant their doctrine of "The Rapture" and how it motivates their support for Israel. It's scary just how much of their politics rotate around that. Seriously, Christopher Hitchens (yes, that Christopher Hitchens, the atheist) can get published in National Review because of his support for Israel and for wars to bring democracy to the Middle East. Meanwhile, the paleoconservatives (the guys who opposed these wars) have been airbrushed out of the conservative movement; vaporized, in the Orwellian sense.

It's downright eerie.

And it's gotten to the point where "extreme" right-wingers like Pat Buchanan are saying that the bankers and corporate executives are ruining America. Paul Craig Roberts, assistant secretary at the Treasury under Reagan for crying out loud, the guy who helped implement supply-side economics, sounds more like Noam Chomsky than George W. Bush, these days.

It's a topsy-turvy world.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#135

Post by latch » Sat, Aug 06, 2011, 2:15 AM UTC

geuis wrote: post #52

(Reference: http://www.federalbudget.com/ ) Steps to recovery: 1) End all offensive military actions overseas. Finish winding down Iraq and abandon Afghanistan wholesale. These actions have cost several trillion dollars over the last 10 years. We can't get that money back, but we can stop spending more. 2) Defense spending is in the top 3 highest budget expenditures. Cut it by 1 third across the board. Maintain impor…

Social security shouldn't be cut, it should be turned into a purely social program (and grandfathered in at that too). Instead of being an entitlement program, it should become like welfare and enabled for the bottom X % of the population. Specifically, the burden for retirement for the middle class should be placed on individuals rather than government.

For too long, babyboomers have relied on social security as a sort of no-interest loan. Why put that extra money in my 401K when I can rely on social security? I'll get a second car, or we'll take a yearly family vacation overseas...

Also, simplify the tax system and close loopholes, but do not directly raises taxes.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#136

Post by jsz0 » Sat, Aug 06, 2011, 2:15 AM UTC

geuis wrote: post #52

(Reference: http://www.federalbudget.com/ ) Steps to recovery: 1) End all offensive military actions overseas. Finish winding down Iraq and abandon Afghanistan wholesale. These actions have cost several trillion dollars over the last 10 years. We can't get that money back, but we can stop spending more. 2) Defense spending is in the top 3 highest budget expenditures. Cut it by 1 third across the board. Maintain impor…

I have an easy solution. Let's make your federal income taxes look less like a bill and more like an order form. So for example some portion of your income taxes are pre-allocated for essential services (say 50%) and everything else is your choice. You get 50 points to spend and a variety of categories to choose from: education, defense, infrastructure, green energy, science research, enhanced Medicare services, NASA, deficit reduction, etc. This data is delivered to congress who must use it as a framework for 50% of the federal budget. After you filed your taxes mid-year you'd receive a detailed receipt that let you know exactly what Americans have decided to spend our money on.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#137

Post by srl » Sat, Aug 06, 2011, 2:15 AM UTC

j_hightower wrote: post #80

geuis wrote: post #52

(Reference: http://www.federalbudget.com/ ) Steps to recovery: 1) End all offensive military actions overseas. Finish winding down Iraq and abandon Afghanistan wholesale. These actions have cost several trillion dollars over the last 10 years. We can't get that money back, but we can stop spending more. 2) Defense spending is in the top 3 highest budget expenditures. Cut it by 1 third across the board. Maintain impor…

"Given China's rise, its wise long-term to keep a presence in the region." Why? China will surpass the United States in soft and hard power eventually. This is demographically and economically inevitable. Even sooner, if not already, China will become an unshakable hegemon over all of Asia. So why fight it in the most expensive and futile ways possible, i.e., by maintaining the fiction that we will be able to exercis…

> China will surpass the United States in soft and hard power eventually. This is demographically and economically inevitable.

As far as I can tell, this conclusion can only be reached via naive interpolation of current trends. I can't come up with one plausible scenario in which this actually happens. Most of China, population-wise, lives in a state of abject poverty, about which the government has done very little. The Chinese gov't itself indicates that nearly 10% of the population are migrant workers. The migration of peasants from the countryside to the city is already considered the largest migration in human history, and it's expected to grow drastically over the next decade or so.

No country can smoothly handle the kind of stresses that come with having most of the country living in abject poverty, and seeking migration to already-overpopulated cities. At some point, /something/ will snap - the magic bubble that is China's economy will pop, and we'll all realize that being gigantic is an impairment, not an advantage.

Put another way: at some point, China's ridiculously poor standards of education and health care will catch up to its economy - and the western companies that have been moving (partly) there, helping to fuel the growth, will stop doing so.

Your point about economic vs. military power is, of course, valid, and largely irrefutable. I would add that, as China does seem to be a relatively stable country - with a competent and, most importantly, sane government - they stand little to gain by way of aggressive military action. We may do well to let them police their part of the world (read: keep North Korea in line), trusting their own rational self-interest, and save ourselves the effort.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#138

Post by winestock » Sat, Aug 06, 2011, 2:17 AM UTC

ataranto wrote: post #132

winestock wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're more liberal than conservative. I'm more conservative than liberal. Bless your heart, I agree with all of your points. At the end of the Cold War, other conservatives were making the same noises that you're making now. For their pains, their careers were destroyed by the people who run the current mainstream conservative movement. Let's take a look at those points of yours. Points 1 & 2. Cut defense spending a…

There's a huge gap between isolationism and, you know, not occupying TWO countries on the other side of the planet. I stopped reading your comment after that sentence with the assumption that all of your other points would be equally dumb.

Sure there's a difference between isolationism and occupying multiple nations across the globe. You know that. I know that. Try telling that to the neocons and watch your reputation get ruined.

The neocons are not nice people. They will call you names for all kinds of silly and/or evil reasons. And they will demand that you think of them as the Righteous Good Guys every step of the way.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#139

Post by rossover » Sat, Aug 06, 2011, 2:20 AM UTC

olalonde wrote: post #119

prostoalex wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What constitutes defense spending nowadays? Is it largely salary payments to current troops? Wouldn't we have to deal with a large unemployment problem in case we laid off a bunch of military employees and told them to go find a job somewhere else? Or is it payment to defense contractors, such as Valley's own Lockheed Martin? Wouldn't this cause a large number of people to be unemployed, contributing to recession?

Theoretically , this problem can easily be solved: keep sending them paychecks. At least, they could be working on something productive like finding jobs or starting businesses.

Probably most would not start businesses or seriously seek employment with a steady paycheck unfortunately.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#140

Post by kragen » Sat, Aug 06, 2011, 2:20 AM UTC

mark_l_watson wrote: post #109

Yeah, the US deserves a downgrade. What pisses me off is that my wife and I have savings, live within our means, and if you believe Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff (which I do), there is going to be 5% to 10% yearly inflation for a good while that takes money from savers and basically gives it to debtors. I am actually sympathetic to some debt forgiveness - it is not the people in need that I am pissed off at. Anywa…

> What pisses me off is that my wife and I have savings, live within our means, and... inflation ... takes money from savers and basically gives it to debtors.

Well, it takes money from lenders (or cash holders) and gives it to debtors. If you don't like that, stop being a lender or cash holder: move out of cash and bonds into, say, stocks, commodities, or real estate. If you're really confident that that inflation is going to happen, go short cash: build up a huge credit card balance at the current low interest rate, while pouring all of your earnings into non-cash holdings. (Danger: if you go short and you're wrong, you're fucked.)