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United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

reuters.com

91–100 of 518 posts

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#91
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Treasuries act as a money store for large institutions that I think would be hard for them to replace in practice. They use T-bills in particular as more or less a jumbo-sized version of an FDIC-insured bank account. Where would they move that money to? I.e., who else provides a similarly safe account where you can deposit $50 billion? Can't be to a bank account, because all the major banks have even lower ratings. T…

You could, for example, move your money to Canadian treasuries, which are AAA rated, couldn't you? I am admittedly learning much of this as I read, but it seems to me that a large concern would be the amount of money that might simply shift out of our economy to economies with better (safer) credit ratings.

Perhaps; it depends on whether investors have rules about percentage of foreign holdings (many do). You'd also need to find countries with AAA ratings that still have big enough outstanding debts that the markets are sufficiently liquid even for large transactions. For example, Canada has $550 billion in total outstanding bonds, so you couldn't easily move $50 billion there, since that'd require buying up 10% of the entire market. Even moving $5 billion there is buying up 1%, which the liquidity may or may not support.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#92
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't most of the US debt also financed by its own citizens?

Yes, about 70% of it.

Really?

http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Graphic/2011/07/31/...

[EDIT] Sorry, read the original statement wrong. I was thinking the parent said 70% was held foreign, not vice-versa.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#93
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Again this is based on the same logic that people will treat the U.S. Government the same way they'd treat any other person and that's just not going to happen. It's not a matter of how "people" treat it. Many funds are prohibited from holding anything other than AAA. Those folks will now be selling bonds. For those that haven't looked at the math of bonds: When the price of a bond goes down (as it does when there…

I was under the impression that there were funds that were legally required to not anything lower than a certain value, but those values were much lower than AAA (AA or AA-). Which funds cannot hold anything lower than AAA, and are they really big enough to dump enough US bonds to make a difference?

Some funds strictly cannot hold anything lower than AAA, but most have "investment grade" requirement which is BBB (Baa in moody's ratings)

That type of downgrade is very unlikely

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#94
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Treasuries act as a money store for large institutions that I think would be hard for them to replace in practice. They use T-bills in particular as more or less a jumbo-sized version of an FDIC-insured bank account. Where would they move that money to? I.e., who else provides a similarly safe account where you can deposit $50 billion? Can't be to a bank account, because all the major banks have even lower ratings. T…

You could, for example, move your money to Canadian treasuries, which are AAA rated, couldn't you? I am admittedly learning much of this as I read, but it seems to me that a large concern would be the amount of money that might simply shift out of our economy to economies with better (safer) credit ratings.

I think at least one of the issues is that other AAA countries/entities simply don't produce enough debt. It' not just that we're AAA, it's that we produce so much AAA paper. The AAA bond market gets so much smaller is the issue. That's my understanding, but I'm no expert.

I think that is largely why this won't have that much of an effect, there isn't a replacement for that much money that is AAA. The "cure" (crowding into what is left) would be more painful to the bond market than the "disease" (us).

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#95
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some institutions are obligated (by charter or contract) to only buy AAA rated bonds. That's why it's a big deal... Now that being said, I have no idea how this would work in practice.

I'm sorry but that's bull. Anything can be changed. Contracts can be revised and even charters can be updated by a Board of Directors. If you hold a significant amount of U.S. Bonds you aren't going to ditch them on S&P's say so. You're going to call a meeting of the Board of Directors or Trustees or whoever and decide based on your own judgement. The whole point of a rating agency is to provide you with research tha…

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Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#96
post #13

One thing to keep in mind is that many institutional investors, including those in Europe, are required to invest exclusively into triple-A instruments. This downgrade means a major sell-off of US bonds and whatnots currently held by such investors, and that could have an interesting avalanche effect.

Naive question: the money that gets de-invested will be reinvested where? France? UK?

I don't think de-invest is an actual word, but I will role with you on this. Investors treat U.S. Treasury bonds like cash. A lot of financial transactions are actually done with Treasury notes, because they are considered extremely safe and reliable, and unlike cash, they generate interest payments. If investors don't like the downgrade, then they will sell off their bonds for cash. Cash is theoretically the safest asset you can hold (some would argue that gold is, but that is a different topic). Cash never decreases in value (relative to itself at least, it can change value when compared to other countries currency, and inflation can take it's toll, but once again, this is a different topic), whereas treasury bonds can.

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#97
post #56

I am not American, and here's what I don't get: America can borrow money right now at 1.5% for five years. Why is there such a clamour to stop? I would hope that the government would be able to get better than 1.5% return with the money - if the CEO of any company chose not to take on debt at this rate they'd get fired. It seems like all of the media coverage is glossing over this.

There's a lot that doesn't make any sense. As you say, interest rates are low. Plenty of people are out of work. To me, that says, "perfect time to build and repair infrastructure!" Whether you believe FDR's New Deal helped or hindered recovery from the Great Depression, the simple, business-oriented financials of it would seem to indicate that right now is the time to be building roads, trains, dams, nuclear plants,…

That's exactly what I thought the response would have been. Cheap money, low employment - hire lots of people to do stuff. But it seems like the public opinion is that this debt is bad, and I'm don't understand why entirely. I mean, I see a lot of comparisons to credit card debt, so is it just lack of education/understanding?

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#98
post #52

(Reference: http://www.federalbudget.com/ ) Steps to recovery: 1) End all offensive military actions overseas. Finish winding down Iraq and abandon Afghanistan wholesale. These actions have cost several trillion dollars over the last 10 years. We can't get that money back, but we can stop spending more. 2) Defense spending is in the top 3 highest budget expenditures. Cut it by 1 third across the board. Maintain impor…

What constitutes defense spending nowadays?

Is it largely salary payments to current troops? Wouldn't we have to deal with a large unemployment problem in case we laid off a bunch of military employees and told them to go find a job somewhere else?

Or is it payment to defense contractors, such as Valley's own Lockheed Martin? Wouldn't this cause a large number of people to be unemployed, contributing to recession?

Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

#100
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Treasuries act as a money store for large institutions that I think would be hard for them to replace in practice. They use T-bills in particular as more or less a jumbo-sized version of an FDIC-insured bank account. Where would they move that money to? I.e., who else provides a similarly safe account where you can deposit $50 billion? Can't be to a bank account, because all the major banks have even lower ratings. T…

You could, for example, move your money to Canadian treasuries, which are AAA rated, couldn't you? I am admittedly learning much of this as I read, but it seems to me that a large concern would be the amount of money that might simply shift out of our economy to economies with better (safer) credit ratings.

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