Earlier quoted context omitted.
Does it? Many institutional investors don't treat U.S. Treasuries as ratable bonds, but a separate category (they aren't lumped in with AAA corporates in investment strategies, for the good reason that they have quite different characteristics). Based on the slim case studies we have so far, the S&P downgrade of Japan in 2002 had approximately zero impact on Japanese bond rates. It doesn't even show up as a small bli…
That's because Japanese debt (up to this point) has been primarily financed by its own citizens, life insurance and pension funds. These are more likely to accept sub-AAA rated bonds and support their own government than external investors are.
United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P
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Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P
#52Steps to recovery:
1) End all offensive military actions overseas. Finish winding down Iraq and abandon Afghanistan wholesale. These actions have cost several trillion dollars over the last 10 years. We can't get that money back, but we can stop spending more.
2) Defense spending is in the top 3 highest budget expenditures. Cut it by 1 third across the board. Maintain important overseas installations such as Japan and Taiwan. Given China's rise, its wise long-term to keep a presence in the region. Scale back deployments in Europe unless Russia still is still a threat to western Europe.
3) The most amount of money the U.S. spends is Health and Human Services. The U.S. health system is a fucking mess. Somehow we spend the most on healthcare and get some of the worst societal benefits out of any industrialized country. I don't have an answer here, but it likely involves completely tearing down the existing system to its nuts and bolts and building it back up. I'd love to hear ideas on this point from others that know more about it.
4) Social Security is the other one. My mom relies on it, so does a lot of my family. We're from meager backgrounds and traditionally have come from poorer parts of the nation. That being said, cut it.
When I look at my paycheck and see that upwards of 40% of my income is being sucked out by the government and used more for things I oppose than things I support (e.g. war spending versus scientific investment) it pisses me right off.
Yes, I have heard the naive argument "But taxes are there to run the things you use like roads and government services that you use every day". This is true only in part. Yup, we need an army. Yup, we need local police. Yup, we need roads. Yup, we need a justice system. But it doesn't take trillions of dollars a year to run those things.
The government shouldn't interfere with business like propping up failing business models. It should work to make sure that business plays fair, i.e. anti-monopoly or collusion, etc.
I'm more liberal than conservative, and definitely not one of these people that wants business to have free-reign over everything. But there are bottom lines that we have crossed and need to back off.
Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P
#53One thing to keep in mind is that many institutional investors, including those in Europe, are required to invest exclusively into triple-A instruments. This downgrade means a major sell-off of US bonds and whatnots currently held by such investors, and that could have an interesting avalanche effect.
Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P
#54... and now all the random crap financial code out there that simply hard-codes "AAA" as the US credit rating will have problems. I bet a lot of people will be bug testing this change over the weekend. EDIT: This seems to sum it up: http://lostechies.com/johnpetersen/2011/07/16/the-impact-of-...
Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P
#55For those who aren't sure why this matters there are two things to note. First, interest will go up. US Bonds are now considered riskier than they were before. This means investors in US Bonds will expect to collect more interest due to the greater risk they are taking. Instead of paying China and Japan 3% (for example) on $1 trilion (each), the US will now have to pay 3.5% (and climbing). Of course, the higher the i…
If the U.S. falls back into recession we'll take everyone with us. Other countries know this. Banks know this. Institutional Investors know this.
Increase the interest rate on the U.S. and you'll trigger an increase on the U.S. consumer while exacerbating the U.S. debt crisis (which is the whole reason for the downgrade). That would guarantee a recession and would bring every investment down.
Finally everyone knows what S&P is up to. You said it yourself. They aren't happy with U.S. policy and they've been able to bully other governments into austerity in the past. So they think they can do it here. But S&P's opinion of U.S. policy isn't going to be enough to convince investors to willingly create another recession
(Please note I'm in favor of austerity and think we're already headed into a recession I'm just realistic about S&P's limited power)
Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P
#56Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Does it? Many institutional investors don't treat U.S. Treasuries as ratable bonds, but a separate category (they aren't lumped in with AAA corporates in investment strategies, for the good reason that they have quite different characteristics). Based on the slim case studies we have so far, the S&P downgrade of Japan in 2002 had approximately zero impact on Japanese bond rates. It doesn't even show up as a small bli…
That's because Japanese debt (up to this point) has been primarily financed by its own citizens, life insurance and pension funds. These are more likely to accept sub-AAA rated bonds and support their own government than external investors are.
Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P
#58For those who aren't sure why this matters there are two things to note. First, interest will go up. US Bonds are now considered riskier than they were before. This means investors in US Bonds will expect to collect more interest due to the greater risk they are taking. Instead of paying China and Japan 3% (for example) on $1 trilion (each), the US will now have to pay 3.5% (and climbing). Of course, the higher the i…
Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P
#59For those who aren't sure why this matters there are two things to note. First, interest will go up. US Bonds are now considered riskier than they were before. This means investors in US Bonds will expect to collect more interest due to the greater risk they are taking. Instead of paying China and Japan 3% (for example) on $1 trilion (each), the US will now have to pay 3.5% (and climbing). Of course, the higher the i…
Again this is based on the same logic that people will treat the U.S. Government the same way they'd treat any other person and that's just not going to happen. If the U.S. falls back into recession we'll take everyone with us. Other countries know this. Banks know this. Institutional Investors know this. Increase the interest rate on the U.S. and you'll trigger an increase on the U.S. consumer while exacerbating the…
Re: United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P
#60Took those lazy rating agencies a while. - 1.6 Trillion budget deficit - 14 Trillion national debt - 55 Trillion US total debt - 115 Trillion Unfunded liabilities - 17% U6 unemployment - 45.8 Million Americans on Food Stamps - 52 Million Americans without health insurance - 1/2 of mortgages are underwater - 63% labor participation rate, lowest since early 80s - -5% in Real medium household income in the last 10 years…
The S&P rating is only an assessment of risk in the US Treasury bonds, not a general rating of entire US economy.