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Can progressives be convinced that genetics matters?

newyorker.com

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Re: Can progressives be convinced that genetics matters?

#751
post #747

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which means: for the people with a high enough AFQT score, IQ is correlated with AFQT score. This is indeed interesting, but generalizing to the rest of the population is a methodological mistake. No, because everything else we know about IQ, especially the existence of positive manifold, strongly suggest that it will also correlate at lower IQs too. You can’t just say “the study on X has not included Y, therefore…

> You can’t just say “the study on X has not included Y, therefore we should have absolutely no expectations about any sort of relationship between X and Y”. That’s not how science works. Oh yes it is. Extrapolating outside of study sample is either a scientific rookie mistake or just plain fraud. Doing so in any hard-science topic would earn you an angry comment from your reviewers. > Fortunately, nobody is claiming…

> Extrapolating outside of study sample is either a scientific rookie mistake or just plain fraud.

No, extrapolating outside of study sample is the entire point of doing science. Of what use science would be if we could not do that? Imagine, “no, you can’t say that this vaccine is effective, at best you can say that it was effective in the sample of subjects being included in that study, but you can’t extrapolate that outside the sample, that would be a rookie mistake”. This is, of course, absurd. We do science precisely so that we can make useful predictions in day to day life, outside of studies.

> they conclude that genetics must be the decisive factor!

I observe a goalpost being shifted, from “genetic factors alone” to them being decisive. I do not accept that. Please, tell me, where they, or anyone else claims that genetic factors alone determine outcomes.

> they assume AFQT = IQ = g = genetics

I don’t think they do, and it is contradicted by what you wrote in this very comment, where you say they claim genetics is “decisive factor”. This clearly makes no sense under assumption of equality/identity of concepts — you wouldn’t say that A is a “decisive factor” in B, if A and B are the same thing.

> ideological stance, which Herrnstein have been defending for decades prior to the publication of the Bell Curve

Relationship between g and genetics is an empirical, not purely ideological issue. Hernstein has been saying that g is mostly determined by genes precisely because this is the current state of our scientific knowledge, and has been for decades.

Re: Can progressives be convinced that genetics matters?

#752
post #751

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can’t just say “the study on X has not included Y, therefore we should have absolutely no expectations about any sort of relationship between X and Y”. That’s not how science works. Oh yes it is. Extrapolating outside of study sample is either a scientific rookie mistake or just plain fraud. Doing so in any hard-science topic would earn you an angry comment from your reviewers. > Fortunately, nobody is claiming…

> Extrapolating outside of study sample is either a scientific rookie mistake or just plain fraud. No, extrapolating outside of study sample is the entire point of doing science . Of what use science would be if we could not do that? Imagine, “no, you can’t say that this vaccine is effective, at best you can say that it was effective in the sample of subjects being included in that study, but you can’t extrapolate th…

> No, extrapolating outside of study sample is the entire point of doing science. Of what use science would be if we could not do that? Imagine, “no, you can’t say that this vaccine is effective, at best you can say that it was effective in the sample of subjects being included in that study

It's not about not extrapolating to individual subjects outside of the test group, it's about not extrapolating to categories which aren't represented. That's why we don't conclude a vaccine is effective on all mammals after a trial on mouses! We experiment on humans, and we even try to get as much diversity as we can (age, gender, preexisting conditions etc.) so the result can be generalized to the entire population.

> I observe a goalpost being shifted, from “genetic factors alone” to them being decisive. I do not accept that. Please, tell me, where they, or anyone else claims that genetic factors alone determine outcomes.

The argument made in The Bell Curve is that genetics is the single most important factor. I wrote “alone” not because there is not other factors, but because according to the authors there is no other factors as important.

> Relationship between g and genetics is an empirical, not purely ideological issue. Hernstein has been saying that g is mostly determined by genes precisely because this is the current state of our scientific knowledge, and has been for decades.

It's not. At least not according to the usual definition of “scientific knowledge” which imply some degree of consensus: this research field is strongly divided on that question, with a clear ideological split. BTW, even the mere existence of g is questioned.

Re: Can progressives be convinced that genetics matters?

#753
post #739

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think they invented his quotes? There's usually room for a fruitful discussion if you want one.

> Do you think they invented his quotes? There's usually room for a fruitful discussion if you want one. No. But do I think that their "interpretation" is even close to charitable and that there's a even faintest chance that we'll get somewhere from that starting point? No, not a chance. The author is of course the author of some "abolish the NHS book/report" as well. Do you honestly believe that this sort of such st…

But then you agree with me that Chomsky said:

"[W]hat’s so exciting about at last visiting Venezuela is that I can see how a better world is being created […] The transformations that Venezuela is making toward the creation of another socio-economic model could have a global impact."

That seems to prove my point, irrespective of whether the IEA is a right-wing thinktank (yes, it is).

Re: Can progressives be convinced that genetics matters?

#754
post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The research definitely is significant - definitely politically, if not scientifically (which I'd argue it is, any research that helps find the truth / predict the future / create a better model of the world is scientifically significant ). We're currently in the middle of several highly emotional political debates, which would easily be resolved by having better/more scientific data, particularly into the correlatio…

What are the debates being resolved? Clear evidence that one group differs from another doesn't provide any useful information for dealing with individuals. Like make up a characteristic where women differ statistically from men, but have the difference be about 1/2 the standard deviation for either group. Lots of women will be closer to the average for men than the average for women, and vice versa, there's no usefu…

> Like make up a characteristic where women differ statistically from men, but have the difference be about 1/2 the standard deviation for either group.

> there's no useful generalization to make from the clear evidence.

Unless the selection is on the tail ends. https://darrendahly.shinyapps.io/app1/

Re: Can progressives be convinced that genetics matters?

#755

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll tell you what genes are responsible for intelligence if you can tell me which machine code instructions are responsible for Mario. ;-) ( I might need to expand on that a little: I predict that "the genes responsible for intelligence" are not a thing. I think that genes tend to work together to make a living organism similar to how machine code instructions work together to make a program run. So for example: I'm…

The analogy doesn't work as we have indeed identified genes for many biological traits. For example, whether someone is vulnerable to certain diseases. So if iq is a biological trait, like eye color or height, it is odd that we haven't yet found any iq genes.

This isn't a strong 1:1 mapping. Genes are not horoscopes!

No gene works in a vacuum. Genes code for proteins that work together to perform diverse functions. Sure: in some situations you can indeed directly identify that a gene knock out or substitution might affect certain functions, but this is rather misleading!

Genetics is actually very much Turing complete and Genes might best be looked at as a kind of software (this might be considered an understatement).

For comparison: I'm sure we agree that a single machine code instruction by itself is meaningless. However, if you knock out or add a JSR (Jump to SubRoutine aka function call) at the right spot: sure you can claim that the JSR codes for a particular functionality. But: JSR is 3 bytes on a 6502, would you really believe someone who told you that 3 bytes is what it takes to "make Mario jump"?

In reality there's a lot more instructions behind it (with perhaps calls to further subroutines, and more subroutines past that). Genes are not quite 6502 code of course, if anything they're rather more sophisticated.

To look at some of your examples:

You mention eye color which is determined by quite a number of genes working together (eg. location, color select, pigment) .

Height is affected by ... almost everything all at once over a longer period of time (eating, sleeping, age, eating at a particular age, metabolic rate : which itself is fairly sophisticated... there's wall charts that span an entire room). This to the point where some people give up and say "height is actually mostly environmentally determined". (Of course in reality it's an interaction between Genes and environment)

Vulnerability and immunity to diseases is very interesting indeed, if you eg. look at the role of somatic hypermutation in acquired immunity.

And all of these would obviously not work without working cells with DNA transcription, metabolism, membranes, replication, etc. ;-)

In short: be a little bit careful with claims in newspapers that say people have found a "Gene for X".

Re: Can progressives be convinced that genetics matters?

#756
post #657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The analogy doesn't work as we have indeed identified genes for many biological traits. For example, whether someone is vulnerable to certain diseases. So if iq is a biological trait, like eye color or height, it is odd that we haven't yet found any iq genes.

The analogy does work: we know the specific bits that are responsible for the color of Mario's hat.

I bet one could change one or more of several different sets of bits in several different parts of the program that would change the color of mario's hat.

(Perhaps thinking of it in terms of "what bits you should change" is asking the wrong question, instead it might be handier to look for the sprite definition, or to look for the sprite plotting subroutine)

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