We’re not going to have a jobless recovery. We’re going to have a jobless future

What I do know is that this whole situation is terribly discouraging for young people fresh out of school. My partner, for instance, recently graduated with a degree in civil engineering from a very challenging private school. He's been unable to find work as a starting engineer after a six month search, and I'm frankly out of ideas on how to keep him optimistic. Add to all this that his dad, a senior electrical engineer, just got laid off, and any encouraging words I say start to sound very hollow indeed.

I fear that this high unemployment rate, temporary or not, is going to create a generation of career setbacks and failures to launch. A lot of people out there have it much worse, I know, but I still don't know what to say when this hard working young man can't even get responses back for internships and unpaid work.

I wish that I had watched this when I first started job hunting: http://tedxcmu.com/videos/charlie-hoehn

I think his plan is good. The job hunt is dumb, demoralizing, and at the end of the day you aren't really making anything. Your partner should learn something! (Maybe learn programming? There's lots of jobs in that-- that's what I switched to.) At the very least he should continue doing civil engineering projects on his own. Boost his portfolio.

(oh, also, my dad is an economist and he has a crystal ball. Best gag gift for an economist!)

Ricardo’s concept of comparative advantage was forged in a world where labor and capital were essentially fixed. England could weave cloth more efficiently than Spain, but Spain could make wine more efficiently than England. Therefore, they would both benefit from trade given that each of these countries had a comparative benefit or efficiency to offer. The assumption under comparative advantage is, while the composition of employment would change under trade (more weavers employed in England and more wine makers in Spain), the level of employment would stay virtually the same. Meanwhile the citizens of England would get cheaper wine and the Spanish cheaper cloth.

In today’s world, labor and capital are not fixed. Capital flows wherever the input costs are the cheapest, such as labor and materials. Companies can set up operations in many places around the world. For instance, an American multinational no longer has to produce in the country where it sells, given existing trade treaties that lower tariffs. They can shift production to China or Mexico where the labor costs are a fraction of what it is in the U.S. and not be penalized by tariffs or quotas. In effect workers get fired in the U.S.; this leads to a loss of income for the working and middle classes. The workers in Mexico and China benefit because they have jobs, albeit at low wage rates and substandard conditions in many cases. Contrary to received wisdom, prices for some products might be lower, but not significantly so. The difference in wages (from those in the developed world versus the developing world) goes to investors, or more accurately these days, management. This is trade by absolute advantage, not comparative advantage.

For a while GDP growth seems to be fine. But with production set up abroad, the U.S. runs trade deficits and Americans by definition incur more debt to buy these goods. NAFTA encourages this. As a member of the WTO, China benefits from this trade agreement in that its goods are levied with lower tariffs than would otherwise be the case. Moreover, China manipulates its currency to keep it artificially low. Under a reciprocal trade regimen, the currency of a country that exports more than it imports should rise. A rising currency would act as a braking system to bring trade flows back into equilibrium. But the U.S. and China do not want that. China needs to keep selling goods to the world to continue growing fast enough to generate enough jobs. Despite its protests from time to time, the U.S. government does not want this because it is captured by the multinationals, which make much more money not employing Americans (or Europeans for that matter). So when media pundits and approved economists say they are puzzled by the lack of employment growth, it is theatre, a necessary piece of kabuki to keep their jobs as propagandists.

Free trade under a truly Ricardian model of comparative advantage is theoretically beneficial to the world because at its heart lies the assumption of full employment. Instead what is touted as free trade is not Ricardian; it is a model of absolute advantage that ensures that the wages of labor are depressed, thereby enabling the rise in income for the top 1%.

The problem for the elites is that these are not sustainable political or economic policies because eventually unemployment will reach unacceptable levels and the right leader will come along and tell the real story to the American people.

As long as the political power of the middle and working classes has been undermined and blunted, U.S. multinationals will not hire Americans if they can offshore production. Therefore, people need to be organized to buy goods and services from small businesses whose interests are more aligned with that of the nation. Also, Wall Street should be boycotted. Do not do business with big banks. (I belong to a credit union.) Invest in regional financial institutions. Wall Street, because of its power over Washington, has been able to push through unfair trade bills in exchange for the right to set up shop in those foreign countries that benefit from access to American markets. But it is a one-sided deal in practice. U.S. access to foreign markets translates to this: multinationals offshore production and export to the U.S. at low or nonexistent tariffs.

If you want access to Chinese markets you must manufacture and hire people in China. Also, you must share your intellectual property with local firms. Multinationals accept this as the cost of doing business in China, although the real cost is being borne by the working and middle classes in this country.

Unless there is a substantial reversal in these policies, expect many years of sub par economic growth and high unemployment in the U.S. So why should anyone be surprised when the U.S. GDP growth rate for the second quarter is dismal? Unless of course, they are paid to be surprised.