Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing • Hacker News Board

Re: Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing

#61

Post by ajsnigrutin » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 2:53 PM UTC

ip26 wrote: post #53

PeterisP wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be surprised that if this trend increases and the push comes to shove, then the voters - especially those on marginal incomes - might decide that actually they much prefer lower energy prices instead of supporting renewables and CO2-neutral energy; and in democratic countries it's the general public who are entitled to make that choice for their country instead of accepting the decisions of elites/experts…

In some sense a clean environment and less dangerous future are "luxury goods" The people who can least afford to pay for clean energy etc are the ones who will also be most impacted by heat waves, declining air quality, and natural disasters. So it's a similar "luxury good" as "functioning healthcare".

But you need to pay your electricity bill today,...

...and buy food to eat...

...global warming is something for future-you to care about.

Re: Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing

#62

Post by danhor » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 2:54 PM UTC

giarc wrote: post #34

cure wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or nuclear. Sad that this isn’t seen as an option any longer. Maybe this statement is just a reflection of what can be done in a reasonable amount of time (a few years)? Planning and building nuclear plants takes an order of magnitude longer, it seems.

The best time to plant a tree is 30 years ago, the second best time is now.

If you need a tree in 10, maybe don't plant one that takes 20 years to grow.

If nuclear were the only option, it would be different. But the only pro-nuclear policies that make sense for achieving 1.5-2 degrees are keeping existing plants online and reactivating old ones (also policies with reasonable disagreements, but at least positive regarding climate change afaict). Building new ones simply takes too long to achieve climate goals while wind & PV are reasonably quick to do (if the political will is there).

Re: Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing

#63

Post by dagw » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 2:55 PM UTC

tehsauce wrote: post #32

cure wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or nuclear. Sad that this isn’t seen as an option any longer. Maybe this statement is just a reflection of what can be done in a reasonable amount of time (a few years)? Planning and building nuclear plants takes an order of magnitude longer, it seems.

realistically building batteries or thermal storage at that scale will probably take as long as nuclear plants

With batteries and thermal storage you can scale up over time. You can have a new small thermal storage or battery facility up and running in 2-3 years and slowly build it out over the next 20 years, with the option to change technology or capacity as needed during that time. With nuclear you have 20 years of 'nothing' before you have anything to show for your efforts.

Re: Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing

#64

Post by ajsnigrutin » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 2:56 PM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #23

marvin wrote: post #4

It's weird that we have higher late-summer electricity prices that we did mid-winter this year. But all things considered, energy prices do in fact need to be high in order to support faster deployment of renewables and CO2-neutral energy. Sucks for everyone who has marginal incomes, but I'm sure we can make some adjustments to the safety net policies to mitigate that.

Much as I support transition to green energy as fast as possible, doing so in ways that increase prices create a risk that businesses which care more about money than environment just move to where the energy is cheaper and then you lose both influence over them and employment for those very same marginal income people. I’d rather governments use general taxation to subsidise deployment of PV (or research into superc…

How about go nuclear, that works even during windless nights?

Re: Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing

#65

Post by PeterisP » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 2:56 PM UTC

bserge wrote: post #48

PeterisP wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sort of is the democratic principle. There are three alternatives: 1. This choice gets made in whatever way does get (at least passive) consent of the general public; 2. The leaders try to make a different choice and get promptly replaced in the next elections with whichever populists promise to ignore the elites and roll back these choices; 3. The leaders make a different choice and violently enforce them in an…

1 or 2, very likely without violence. Just spin it properly. I hate to bring it as example, but everyone but a minority followed Covid guidelines, locked themselves home, lost their jobs, lived on savings. For the greater good. Those protesting were seen as idiots. So, yeah, people will do as they're told.

Okay, consent can be "manufactured" in some sense if you "spin it properly"; however my point in the parent post was that as of now, it seems that it has not been done (yet?). The arguments were made, and "spun properly" but they have convinced (excuse me for crude stereotypes grouping people, but here averages matter, not individuals) middle-or-upper-class urban liberals, but have not convinced large quantities of lower income people. However, their consent is required as well, they have their rights, opinions, votes and possibility to (re)act, and the current message is not really reaching them, so it's not being "spun properly" as far as I see, because it's not succeeding. People will do as they're told if either they're convinced or if the "ask" is not too high. There's a "green consensus" that supports the environment with small scale action that does not affect your budget that much. There is not (yet?) a consensus that a major part of the country's resources should be devoted to reducing climate change risk or impact.

Covid is a relevant example, and IMHO it quite clearly showed the limits of how much people were willing to follow guidelines even in the presence of immediate threat with clear obvious results happening right now. If you would be asking something comparable to Covid restrictions so that in 30 years perhaps the impact would be lower... (the delay in time, the uncertainty of impact...) IMHO Covid experience shows that people simply won't accept that.

Re: Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing

#66

Post by acidburnNSA » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 2:57 PM UTC

randomdata wrote: post #58

28511524 wrote: post #2

“Options include reserve thermal power plants, battery storage or cables for importing electricity from other markets.” Or nuclear. Sad that this isn’t seen as an option any longer.

The prevailing nuclear designs are not an option. They are only suitable for base load production, whereas wind is only suitable for peak load production. They serve entirely different purposes on the grid and are not meaningfully interchangeable. When the wind stops blowing you need another technology that is suitable for peak load production (batteries, natural gas, etc.).

Current-design nuclear plants themselves are perfectly capable at ramping up and down on demand on the order of 10s of minutes. They usually just choose not to because fuel is a small fraction of their total cost and so the current (and adjustable) markets pressure them into selling as much electricity as possible by staying near 100%.

Re: Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing

#67

Post by phtrivier » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 2:57 PM UTC

guerrilla wrote: post #30

28511524 wrote: post #2

“Options include reserve thermal power plants, battery storage or cables for importing electricity from other markets.” Or nuclear. Sad that this isn’t seen as an option any longer.

We do hydro and biomass[1] in Sweden. I'm not sure why Germany, France and Italy, given the topographies, would have a problem with that. Have they not diverisifed as much? 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Sweden

Hydro already accounts for 10/15% of electricity production in France (thanks FSM for the Pyrennes chains and the rivers) - and it does not seem like we have much more capacity (there are some small dams from the early XXth century that are being reused.)

Nuclear and wind suffer from NIMYBism and are now nothing more than political totems. PV is going this road now that people are realizing installing solar farms means cutting on forest or actual food farms.

Coal is already pretty much extinct.

Whereas gas is "painless" from a political point of view, private interest in the field (total, engine) have a strong history of political influence, and "gas" wins if RE are installed but the sun does not shine nor the wind blows... So gas is the energy of the future for Europe until there is a breakthrough in fusion or safer modular fission.

This will not make the geopol situation any simpler in the east, and is of course a disaster climate-wise - except maybe for coal-heavy countries like Poland and Chez Republic

Re: Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing

#68

Post by ip26 » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 2:58 PM UTC

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #61

ip26 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some sense a clean environment and less dangerous future are "luxury goods" The people who can least afford to pay for clean energy etc are the ones who will also be most impacted by heat waves, declining air quality, and natural disasters. So it's a similar "luxury good" as "functioning healthcare".

But you need to pay your electricity bill today,... ...and buy food to eat... ...global warming is something for future-you to care about.

Yes, I understand the future-you aspect. You handle the most immediate costs first.

But I don't think that qualifies "adequate dental care" or "maintaining a healthy weight" (two problems frequently prioritized below this month's rent) as luxuries. Not only are they something everyone should have, deferring attention to those things is a net cost for everyone in the end (sufferers are miserable, society pays). This is why health insurance has started subsidizing preventative care. Climate change is a similar can of worms.

Re: Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing

#69

Post by Scoundreller » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 2:58 PM UTC

bserge wrote: post #36

lm28469 wrote: post #24

I wonder how climate change will play with wind energy in the longer term. We might kill stable/recurring winds and end up with a bunch of windmills in the middle of a no wind zone.

Just use half of them in fan mode.

Finally a use case for these electricity highways I’ve been hearing about.

We can move wind from where there’s too much to where there isn’t enough.

Re: Energy Prices in Europe Hit Records After Wind Stops Blowing

#70

Post by StreamBright » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 2:59 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #46

This article seems to be trying to turn a story about unprecedented highs in natural gas prices (mirroring surging post-covid commodity prices all over) into a story about the wind sometimes not blowing. Alternative article : https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/expensive-winter-ahe...

Yeah the two things are related. You need a battery or a gas turbine if you have windmills in the energy mix. This is why ultimately wind (or any other uncontrollable energy source) is tough to integrate into any energy grid.