Record number of environmental activists murdered • Hacker News Board

Re: Record number of environmental activists murdered

#21

Post by ArchieMaclean » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 9:39 AM UTC

cutemonster wrote: post #15

ArchieMaclean wrote: post #3

How does this compare to the growth in the number of environmental activists overall? Edit: it was pointed out below that it's probably more influenced by an increase in environmentally damaging activities such as logging. Edit 2: Yes, I think that murdering peaceful, innocent protestors is a disgusting act. I'm just questioning the article's use of statistics

Seems this'd rather be proportional to the number of new logging and mining projects etc, from the article: > Almost a third of the murders were reportedly linked to resource exploitation - logging, mining, large-scale agribusiness, hydroelectric dams and other infrastructure.

Ah, that makes a lot of sense.

Re: Record number of environmental activists murdered

#22

Post by chki » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 9:39 AM UTC

Shacklz wrote: post #14

ArchieMaclean wrote: post #3

How does this compare to the growth in the number of environmental activists overall? Edit: it was pointed out below that it's probably more influenced by an increase in environmentally damaging activities such as logging. Edit 2: Yes, I think that murdering peaceful, innocent protestors is a disgusting act. I'm just questioning the article's use of statistics

Are climate activists expected to "take some loss" or what exactly are you implying with this question? If people die because they engage in non-violent activism it's just wrong, plain and simple, there's no gray area (at least I have a very hard time thinking of one). The overall number of activists or the growth thereof has absolutely nothing to do with that.

I don't think anybody is arguing whether killing innocent activists is wrong. But the implications of the headline are different if the increase in murders correlates with an increase in activism. That could for example imply that activists are murdered for being activists and not for being environmental activists specifically.

Re: Record number of environmental activists murdered

#23

Post by yunohn » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 9:40 AM UTC

ArchieMaclean wrote: post #16

cenophor wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is murder, not people falling off the cliff because of some accidents. There is probably nothing logically wrong with that question, and you are probably right that there is a correlation. But... seriously?

Of course we should be doing all we can to prevent murder! It is just always hard to tell with statistics and having a more honest statistic (that, say, shows that murder rates have doubled while number of activists have increased 30%) would be preferable.

I’m not sure what kind of number you’re looking for. There’s no global registry tracking the population of environmental activists - just that when people are murdered by anti-green corporations, we can figure out that the person’s activism is what caused it.

Re: Record number of environmental activists murdered

#24

Post by krageon » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 9:40 AM UTC

_Microft wrote: post #9

kleiba wrote: post #4

I know we're not drawing from a random distribution here, but presumably, the number of environmentalists has also risen dramatically in recent years.

How would that lead to more killings? It is not like activists come with an innate probability to be killed because of their work.

To be fair, they definitely do. Any kind of activism that campaigns against mountains of money comes with an innate probability to be killed. I suppose you could argue that it's not innate because someone else is instigating it, but if the conflict that gives rise to the murder is in itself a property of the activism...

Re: Record number of environmental activists murdered

#25

Post by TeMPOraL » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 9:41 AM UTC

_Microft wrote: post #9

kleiba wrote: post #4

I know we're not drawing from a random distribution here, but presumably, the number of environmentalists has also risen dramatically in recent years.

How would that lead to more killings? It is not like activists come with an innate probability to be killed because of their work.

It seems they do, though. We're not talking about Extinction Rebellion people protesting outside a high school in a Western democracy, we're talking about activists working in nasty places, running interference against brutal governments and corporations. If the number of those activists is growing, then incidents of murder will be on the rise too.

That is, of course, entirely orthogonal to the actual problem being: those people out there are being murdered, this needs to be stopped, and people responsible need to be brought to justice.

Re: Record number of environmental activists murdered

#26

Post by beowulfey » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 9:42 AM UTC

Here is the original report [1]. For those of you who quip that the number of environmental activists has also been increasing in recent years (talk about being so close to realizing the point), I also want to clarify that Global Witness, the NGO who put out the report, has only been tracking these numbers since 2012.

[1] https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/environmental-act...

Re: Record number of environmental activists murdered

#27

Post by bryanrasmussen » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 9:42 AM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #8

cenophor wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is murder, not people falling off the cliff because of some accidents. There is probably nothing logically wrong with that question, and you are probably right that there is a correlation. But... seriously?

Yes, seriously. Number one failure in sensationalized reporting is base rate fallacy: they point out a high absolute number, implying something strange is going on, whereas usually the denominator - which they neglect to mention - has rose proportionally, meaning there's nothing newsworthy there. I don't mean this is the case here (I'm yet to read the article itself) - but this failure mode in reporting is so common…

>whereas usually the denominator - which they neglect to mention - has rose proportionally, meaning there's nothing newsworthy there.

there is not necessarily a reason to assume that the percentage of murder of activists is going to stay the same if you increase the number of activists, although it may be the case.

Re: Record number of environmental activists murdered

#28

Post by IMTDb » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 9:43 AM UTC

cenophor wrote: post #7

ArchieMaclean wrote: post #3

How does this compare to the growth in the number of environmental activists overall? Edit: it was pointed out below that it's probably more influenced by an increase in environmentally damaging activities such as logging. Edit 2: Yes, I think that murdering peaceful, innocent protestors is a disgusting act. I'm just questioning the article's use of statistics

This is murder, not people falling off the cliff because of some accidents. There is probably nothing logically wrong with that question, and you are probably right that there is a correlation. But... seriously?

Yes, seriously.

The real question is : "Is environmental activism today more dangerous than it was yesterday". The typical way of computing "dangerosity" is through a ratio. Eg: number of death / kilometer for transportation systems, number of injury / game for sports, ...

Why should the dangerosity of the "environmental activism" activity be computed differently, by only taking into consideration a numerator, and dismissing the denominator ?

Re: Record number of environmental activists murdered

#29

Post by spuz » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 9:43 AM UTC

_dain_ wrote: post #18

Shacklz wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are climate activists expected to "take some loss" or what exactly are you implying with this question? If people die because they engage in non-violent activism it's just wrong, plain and simple, there's no gray area (at least I have a very hard time thinking of one). The overall number of activists or the growth thereof has absolutely nothing to do with that.

it has everything to do with it. if the murder rate remains constant and a group doubles in size, then on average twice as many people in that group will get murdered.

Why would you expect the murder rate to be constant? It's plausible the opposite is true that the more murders there are, the more publicity they get overall and the more cautious would-be murderers become.

Re: Record number of environmental activists murdered

#30

Post by _Microft » Mon, Sep 13, 2021, 9:44 AM UTC

Hallucinaut wrote: post #17

_Microft wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would that lead to more killings? It is not like activists come with an innate probability to be killed because of their work.

I believe they're arguing there's an "innate probability" for _humans_ to be murdered.

In another thread, someone argued that it might be rather caused by an increase in mining and logging activity instead (which in turn also might lead to more activists protesting this behaviour).

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28509378