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Leaded gas was a known poison the day it was invented (2016)

smithsonianmag.com

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Re: Leaded gas was a known poison the day it was invented (2016)

#111
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those problems were solved for cars, they can be solved for planes. We shouldn't use it. Bioaccumulation of heavy metals was understood very early. Everything has a cost, spraying lead everywhere should be higher than what we are willing to pay. I am guessing it's still allowed because people who fly planes can afford to lobby. I was astounded to find TEL was still allowed in aviation fuels. Rates of cancers etc are…

> Rates of cancers etc are higher near military bases due to fuel handling incidents. Avgas is only used in piston engines, and the military mostly flies turbines, which use ordinary jet fuel (which does not contain lead). They have some , but I think if you told the military "jets and turboprops only" it wouldn't be a big problem. (Not sure how they would train new pilots, however.) If you're looking for disease/dam…

I find the T-53A, a trainer version of the Cirrus SR20, which is piston-engine propeller aircraft:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_United_States_m...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cirrus_SR20

There might be some piston-based helicopters (too many to check), or drones.

Otherwise, yes, bangers are out.

Re: Leaded gas was a known poison the day it was invented (2016)

#112
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me this is an example of 3 negative features of free markets, exacerbated by a kyriarchic system, but I think it's fixable with work. The three issues I see: One, the short-term market incentive was for them to have something patentable and controllable. Two, the money accrued to them but the harms fell to others, creating a huge negative externality. And three, free markets in goods tend to create markets in poli…

> Politicians live on fixed budgets, any private wealth is put in index funds I like where you are going with all this, but I'll nitpick here that while tying politicians' wealth to the overall stock market in general reduces their incentive to legislate in favor of particular companies, it does provide them incentive to legislate in favor of corporate America in general. We don't need laws that help stock market par…

> We don't need laws that help stock market participants. ~50% of Americans don't hold stock in any form

But everybody benefits from the wealth of society, which somewhat includes the value of the businesses within the economy.

Care needs to be taken not to kill the golden goose.

The problem I see with the US is the two party political system. I live in New Zealand and while MMP has serious problems, it was a great improvement over FPP.

Note I personally believe in equitable sharing of wealth ("The Scandinavian model"). But as a founder I also believe in the power of the incentives of personal gain from enterprise, which needs to be approximately 10:1 to break even given the risk (see VC).

Re: Leaded gas was a known poison the day it was invented (2016)

#113
post #6

> The most compelling option was actually ethanol. But from the perspective of GM, Kitman wrote, ethanol wasn’t an option. It couldn’t be patented and GM couldn’t control its production. And oil companies like Du Pont "hated it," he wrote, perceiving it to be a threat to their control of the internal combustion engine. I'm generally an avid beliver in free markets as an agent for positive change, so these types of "r…

I'm not sure what you mean by your reference to a free market. Patents are a government-granted monopoly, violation of which can get you fined or jailed. If a company hurts people because hurting people allows them to make money from a patent, that's not a failure of the free market, it's a failure of government control.

Unless you mean that you're disheartened that the government doesn't allow a free market here, and you wish they would?

Re: Leaded gas was a known poison the day it was invented (2016)

#114
post #6

> The most compelling option was actually ethanol. But from the perspective of GM, Kitman wrote, ethanol wasn’t an option. It couldn’t be patented and GM couldn’t control its production. And oil companies like Du Pont "hated it," he wrote, perceiving it to be a threat to their control of the internal combustion engine. I'm generally an avid beliver in free markets as an agent for positive change, so these types of "r…

The problem, in all cases, remains the long standing oligarch families and aristocratically rooted institutions, and their captive “public service” institutions, some of which are global in scope. Not wishing to engender a flaming thread, I will simply state that certain aspects of “institutional capture” are very much du jour topics of global interest and impact.

A global reset of “free markets” via a ‘day zero of capital accumulations’ could provide a solution. Many of the established capital hordes are legacies of activities that are now understood to be anti-social at best, and predatory at the extreme.

Coupled with this, we need pedagogical guidance to inform the new generations who are not to manor born. Almost none of the new blood born to middle or lower classes are educated in the necessities of generational wealth preservation and applications of wealth towards affecting societal outcomes. At best, we have children of Marxists and pseudo-Marxists railing against “Capital” without understanding the dynamics of societal power based on multi-generational societal networks, which transcend mere capital.

Primary sources working against such a program are precisely the “entertainment” complexes owned stock, lock, and barrel by informed and purposive societal networks, which at this point in human history have fully transcended ethnic and national boundaries, and clearly aim for stupefying the masses. There is a reason you have been treated to 2 decades of Marvel comics in films.

Re: Leaded gas was a known poison the day it was invented (2016)

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Politicians live on fixed budgets, any private wealth is put in index funds I like where you are going with all this, but I'll nitpick here that while tying politicians' wealth to the overall stock market in general reduces their incentive to legislate in favor of particular companies, it does provide them incentive to legislate in favor of corporate America in general. We don't need laws that help stock market par…

> 50% of Americans don't hold stock in any form Maybe we should address that problem -- it's one of the best long term ways for anyone to build wealth. Why aren't we educating people about this in school?

It's not really a matter of education, I'm in the bottom 50% and after rent and bills I'm left with very little. It's a highly competitive system, with winners and losers.

Re: Leaded gas was a known poison the day it was invented (2016)

#116
post #6

> The most compelling option was actually ethanol. But from the perspective of GM, Kitman wrote, ethanol wasn’t an option. It couldn’t be patented and GM couldn’t control its production. And oil companies like Du Pont "hated it," he wrote, perceiving it to be a threat to their control of the internal combustion engine. I'm generally an avid beliver in free markets as an agent for positive change, so these types of "r…

Public opinion is the weak point in many systems that are supposed to converge to an optimal socially-beneficial equilibrium.

The way competition and free markets are supposed to work, someone else would've introduced ethanol as an anti-knock additive, sold gasoline cheaper (and healthier!), and everyone would've benefitted. But Kettering & Midgley went on an extensive PR campaign after their invention to convince the public leaded gasoline was safe, and they had GM and Dupont's full advertising budgets at their disposal. The public wouldn't know any better, so they believe what they're told and leaded gasoline becomes the standard.

You can hear echoes of that with many Facebook advertising & misinformation campaigns today.

This also causes stock market bubbles & crashes. People are supposed to independently value securities, and then their errors cancel out and you get a very good statistical approximation of true value. Instead, they invest in what everyone else invests in in, until prices have been bid up to insane levels, then run out of gullible buyers and the price crashes.

And brand-based monopoly. Instead of judging product quality for themselves, they buy products that all their friends are buying, "trusted brands", and this creates a barrier to entry that new entrants have a very hard time surmounting.

Democracy is affected too. In theory, the best candidate should win. In practice, the candidate with the most money to buy ads wins. People's opinions are mutable; they don't rationally seek out information independently and make an informed, self-interested choice. They tend to trust what they hear a lot, which creates a market for influencing people's opinions.

I can't think of a way to solve this, though. The "solution" would be to go from a high-trust society to a low-trust society, where everybody basically assumes that whatever they're told is a lie and ignores it. Societies like this have much higher transaction costs, much lower rates of innovation, and much higher rates of violence, which is not an improvement.

Re: Leaded gas was a known poison the day it was invented (2016)

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Politicians live on fixed budgets, any private wealth is put in index funds I like where you are going with all this, but I'll nitpick here that while tying politicians' wealth to the overall stock market in general reduces their incentive to legislate in favor of particular companies, it does provide them incentive to legislate in favor of corporate America in general. We don't need laws that help stock market par…

> 50% of Americans don't hold stock in any form Maybe we should address that problem -- it's one of the best long term ways for anyone to build wealth. Why aren't we educating people about this in school?

Of that 50%, many have negative wealth due to eg credit card debt, many have zero wealth because they're poor, and many have all of their wealth tied up in houses or cars. It's probably not ignorance so much as lack of savings to invest.

Re: Leaded gas was a known poison the day it was invented (2016)

#118
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be over, but it’s not over yet. Your link says that it will both take a while for it to come to market and also be more expensive to produce…an expense that will likely be balked at by the airlines until forced to use it at which point it will be the customers that pay.

For what it's worth, unleaded avgas is already available at some of the Bay Area airports as of recent, and it's currently priced cheaper than traditional leaded avgas.

Do you specifically mean the new 100 octane unleaded mentioned in the article the parent linked to?

If not, it could be some lower octane unleaded formulation. There are a couple of standards for these, but they have never caught on.

Re: Leaded gas was a known poison the day it was invented (2016)

#119
post #6

> The most compelling option was actually ethanol. But from the perspective of GM, Kitman wrote, ethanol wasn’t an option. It couldn’t be patented and GM couldn’t control its production. And oil companies like Du Pont "hated it," he wrote, perceiving it to be a threat to their control of the internal combustion engine. I'm generally an avid beliver in free markets as an agent for positive change, so these types of "r…

Well, those kind of revelations are kind of frequent :-). I think the gov just should rule out lead and let top players decide what to do.

But there was an economic incentive to use TEL, so the free market prioritized profits.

Re: Leaded gas was a known poison the day it was invented (2016)

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, just tax or outlaw this behavior, don't nationalize industries. There is an intellectual framework in place for making sense of leaded petrol in the context of markets, and that's externalities. It is no different in concept to noise pollution, carbon pollution, or other types of externalities, it is just one that's significantly worse. Leaded petrol is at best a negative externality which should be taxed, and pr…

So we should just stop using airplanes because their fuel has lead in it? What?

Yes - brought to you by the same people that would stop you from eating beef because cows fart.

From a tech perspective tetraethyl lead also has lubricative properties that add to exhaust valve longevity under high temperature conditions which may be one of the reasons it took so long to disappear.

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