Earlier quoted context omitted.
We're talking about Taiwan. China sets them up in the fields in a few of the rural communities near Xiamen. They simultaneously lift off from the fields. They fly at ~25mph. They take perhaps three hours to clear the water between Taiwan and China. There's a million of them. They're slow, but fairly agile. Looking at the video, it looks like the C-RAM system is shooting perhaps dozens of rounds per second. Shooting d…
> They fly at ~25mph. You know that US Warships run at 35mph to 50mph over water, right? You literally can't hit a warship at that speed.
Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
521–530 of 538 posts
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#522Earlier quoted context omitted.
> They fly at ~25mph. You know that US Warships run at 35mph to 50mph over water, right? You literally can't hit a warship at that speed.
Only if the warship is at flanking speed directly away from the battle, commonly referred to as "running away". In which case, you've won.
As long as the ship is traveling 25mph away from a 25mph drone, its shooting them down with machine guns (and bullets are very, very cheap). A flock of drones flying at 25mph isn't a weapon, they're sitting ducks. Fully and completely ineffective at ever dealing damage to these warships.
Like, 25mph means that these drones are going to be within effective range of the machine guns for 10 minutes when the ship is standing still. And these AEGIS systems on these destroyers have 300km+ effective radar range.
Unless you have very expensive equipment on those drones: they'll be flying in blind and getting sniped. Either stealth (which prevents the CRAM from locking on), or superior radar (to see the ships before the ships see it), or a combination thereof.
And again: if they're not standing still: the ships can basically run around in circles and the drones would never catch up.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#523Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is completely wrong. "Being heard" is being on FB and Twitter, as these platforms (1) are effectively public forums by nature of their massive, near-monopolistic reach, (2) claim protections of public forums, such as immunity from liability due to user-posted content, and (3) implicitly and explicitly portray themselves as public squares/forums[1]. The online equivalent to "having the right to walk away" is bloc…
Bullshit. If I was a serious I'd go run my own website. People whinge about being censored but don't care enough to run a website? Nazis run their own websites. It's easier than ever to run a website. Nobody is owed being on a private platform, and it's total bullshit to say that we should force companies to. It's not a "de facto public square" - it's an advertising platform, first and foremost. So @Jack said it was…
People talking about "whinging" usually do so because they can't come up with a logical counter-argument. That pattern holds true here.
> Nobody is owed being on a private platform, and it's total bullshit to say that we should force companies to.
If a private platform holds a near-monopoly on speech online, and actively uses anti-competitive behavior to hold people on their platform (as Facebook does, at least) - yes, individuals are owed the right to be present on that platform, because (as stated repeatedly before) it's a monopoly. Facebook is one of the largest sites in the world and enjoys the network effects of being the largest social media site in the world, as well as the lens through which millions of people perceive the world around them, and does its best to keep people there through a variety of anti-competitive strategies - if, at that scale, they decide that they want to ban people for non-illegal content, then the only sane thing to do is to break them up so that they no longer have a monopoly position, which is clearly not happening.
> It's not a "de facto public square"
It is. It has the properties of a public square, namely public visibility, generally available access to the population, a design that allows for and encourages conversation between individuals, and a design meant to emulate a public forum for discussion. Even though it's not legally a public square, it's a de-facto one because it has all of the properties of one and is treated as one - that's what "de-facto" means.
> it's an advertising platform, first and foremost.
Those two things aren't mutually exclusive. Ultra-scale social media platforms have the properties of both advertising platforms and public fora. You don't like the classification of the latter? Well, it's going to remain one until it's broken up or changes its behavior or suddenly loses users.
> So @Jack said it was a public square - in the context of the ideal. Did he make that statement to a court? Because I'll bet being deposed, he'd say that was flowery talk.
You're intentionally being obtuse. Of course the CEO of Twitter wouldn't stand behind his claim in court - but only because that'd be disadvantageous to him (in any court case likely to come up in the next several years), not because he didn't mean it. Nothing you said has any bearing on the fact that he said that it was a public square and meant it. You can't explain this away - it literally came from the CEO, the strategic lead for the company. If he says that Twitter is like a public square, that means that he's directing the company to that effect.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#524Earlier quoted context omitted.
They don't need to triple it in months. Increasing domestic supply by 50%, increasing Russian oil imports from 1.7 mbd to 3mbd. Meanwhile, China has reserves for 100 days of imports. In the long term domestic and Russian production will catch up fully.
Did you read the article? Why would they plan to spend 77 billion over 5 years for a 50% increase in production if they could crank it out of their existing infrastructure in under 100 days? And even if Russia repudiated every other contract they have in Asia, it doesn't look like they have the pipeline capacity to get that much oil to China, even if the cross border capacity for China to import it existed. So it wou…
The pipeline capacity alone from Russia to China is 1.6mbd. Of that, 600 000bd are used, so there is 1mbd of spare capacity just in that pipeline.
It doesn't really matter if the US can or can't back down. It will be disastrous politically and economically to the US and its allies to a level that can scarcely be imagined. Even then, US naval forces have a serious chance of defeat. China is not a small country you can roll over. They have a very well thought out, multilayered, exceedingly technologically sophisticated A2/AD umbrella that means that millions of square kilometers will be in practice off limits to the US. Beyond those zones, China enjoys extremely prompt hypersonic strike capability that has no real counter, which means that in a hot war any US vessel that gets it's rough location leaked running a blockade or running through a strait risks getting sunk straight up.
It's not a war that the US can win. What are the objectives? Take back Taiwan? Literally impossible. Regime change in China? Forget about it. About the only thing that can be done is to hurt the Chinese economy roughly as much as the US economy, enrage the entire rest of the world and destroy any semblance of goodwill the US has, and trigger a recession followed by a restructuring of the US economy that reduces the place of the US in the value chain.
It's simply a stupid move that has no upside. It doesn't matter how the public acts immediately, eventually the US will have to give up.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#525Earlier quoted context omitted.
Only if the warship is at flanking speed directly away from the battle, commonly referred to as "running away". In which case, you've won.
CRAMs have an effective range of like, 10km. As long as the ship is traveling 25mph away from a 25mph drone, its shooting them down with machine guns (and bullets are very, very cheap). A flock of drones flying at 25mph isn't a weapon, they're sitting ducks. Fully and completely ineffective at ever dealing damage to these warships. Like, 25mph means that these drones are going to be within effective range of the mach…
1) China doesn't need to destroy US ships; it merely needs to keep them distracted long enough to take control of Taiwan. If China moves quickly, the Taiwanese leadership are deported to Beijing, and there are boots on the ground, it's a done deal. Once that's done, it will be like Crimea. There's no way the US is getting drawn into a land war in Asia.
2) Ten minutes, at a dozen shots a minute, means a gun firing at 10 RPS can take out 6,000 drones. That's 0.6% of a flock.
3) You can't run circles around a flock of millions of drones, no matter how fast you go. A flock can cover a lot of space. The best you can do is run away, which would take US forces out-of-commission.
4) The Taiwan Straight is simply not that large. It's not hard for China to be aware of everything that happens there, even with a fleet of small, cheap AUVs. Heck, they could drop a few hundred thousand of these as well, if they wanted to.
5) It's equally not hard for China to communicate with a flock of drones. A directional spread spectrum link isn't easy to jam. At that range, even an optical link is practical, and not something where we have countermeasures.
6) A million drones can effectively blanket the whole Taiwan straight.
7) In terms of stealth, I'm not sure how technology will progress, but I'm pretty sure that building drones indistinguishable from birds on radar just wouldn't be that hard. I'm also pretty sure a flock of drones could be made to emulate other forms of craft, on radar.
8) I'm also pretty sure China wouldn't telegraph what they're doing. It's not like we can prepare countermeasures. I gave one example of a disruptive technology; there are dozens of others. To be honest, I have no idea how AEGIS would deal with a million targets, nor what having that many targets would do to its ability to track things like Chinese landing craft, unless the US were explicitly prepared for this particular threat.
Also, the C-RAM price-per-round is about $30. With a $1000 drone, things are cost-neutral if about 3% of rounds hit. At 10 kilometers, it would take rounds a little under 10 seconds to arrive. Even modestly chaotic trajectories would dodge most rounds.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#526Earlier quoted context omitted.
CRAMs have an effective range of like, 10km. As long as the ship is traveling 25mph away from a 25mph drone, its shooting them down with machine guns (and bullets are very, very cheap). A flock of drones flying at 25mph isn't a weapon, they're sitting ducks. Fully and completely ineffective at ever dealing damage to these warships. Like, 25mph means that these drones are going to be within effective range of the mach…
I think that depends on the mission. 1) China doesn't need to destroy US ships; it merely needs to keep them distracted long enough to take control of Taiwan. If China moves quickly, the Taiwanese leadership are deported to Beijing, and there are boots on the ground, it's a done deal. Once that's done, it will be like Crimea. There's no way the US is getting drawn into a land war in Asia. 2) Ten minutes, at a dozen s…
Classic blunder or not, the US gets drawn into land wars in Asia fairly regularly (especially in the 21st century, where we’ve spent most of it involved in two at once.) 1950-1953 Korea, 1955-1973 Vietnam, 1991 Iraq, 2001-2021 Afghanistan, 2003-2011 Iraq II: Elecric Boogaloo, 2014-? Iraq III: Now with Syria, too.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#527Earlier quoted context omitted.
CRAMs have an effective range of like, 10km. As long as the ship is traveling 25mph away from a 25mph drone, its shooting them down with machine guns (and bullets are very, very cheap). A flock of drones flying at 25mph isn't a weapon, they're sitting ducks. Fully and completely ineffective at ever dealing damage to these warships. Like, 25mph means that these drones are going to be within effective range of the mach…
I think that depends on the mission. 1) China doesn't need to destroy US ships; it merely needs to keep them distracted long enough to take control of Taiwan. If China moves quickly, the Taiwanese leadership are deported to Beijing, and there are boots on the ground, it's a done deal. Once that's done, it will be like Crimea. There's no way the US is getting drawn into a land war in Asia. 2) Ten minutes, at a dozen s…
25mph drones will not hold back a warship. They can't effectively close range at 10km out, let alone at 5km, 1km, or shorter. As I stated earlier: warships are literally faster than that.
The "meta" under discussion, by serious people (including Chinese investments / Chinese saber rattling) is the missile. 500mph cruise missiles, 1000mph supersonic missiles, and 3000mph hypersonic missiles.
If you're going to "suicide drone", you do it at 3000mph to impress people. You don't do it at 25mph. Even at 500mph and 1000mph, the methodology is so clearly ineffective that China has spent billions making 3000mph missiles instead.
The minute you start thinking about how these drones are going to take off, refuel, get their payloads (etc. etc.), is the minute you realize how impractical the whole proposal is. What kind of launch platform will these drones take off in? What's the effective range of a drone?
US Destroyers have tomahawk cruise missiles that can reliably hit targets 2000km away, and these missiles fly at 500mph+. How long does it take for your 25mph drone to cover the 2000km range that these Destroyers are at defending Taiwan?
By the time your drones get there, the Destroyers have already launched all their missiles and have gone home.
------
How do you even find the warships in the first place? You keep saying "hundreds of drones", but drones flying at 10km high can only see 300km out.
Secondly: if you fly "like a bird" at say 1000meters, you can only see 100km out before the horizon blocks you. It'd be impossible to track down the warships firing from 2000km away.
At these ranges, the E2 Hawkeye of the Carrier will see your drones, and an appropriate response will be dispatched. Most likely, the warships will just avoid the drones. Hiding behind the horizon.
What kind of drone are you using to even try to tavel 2000km over water? I'm pretty sure that your typical $1000 drone simply don't have the range or speed to even get to the warships.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#528Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It wasn't part of China HK was sold to Britain as part of the corrupted and weak China's humiliation. What do you want to say? Are you trying to depict the image that HK has been forcefully claimed by China? Please stop this type of propaganda behavior. I don't like CCP, but that does not make HK not part of China. We Chinese eventually will get rid of CCP, but we don't want the great nation get split. Just like an…
Who cares what it was / wasn't part of. The majority of people in HK don't want to be part of China. That's all that matters. > We Chinese eventually will get rid of CCP, but we don't want the great nation get split. Dude, what? HK hasn't been part of China for years. What possible justification could you have for re-integrating it. This isn't about preventing a split, this is about undoing a split, and destroying a…
You now get why it is pointless to argue with the Chinese. And Hong Kong wasn't returned to China. It was Handed over. You can also tell most of their assumption about China were taught when they were young. It is always hard to break those assumptions.
Most part of Hong Kong doesn't belong to China for close to 150 years. And you can read why they want Taiwan with so called unification. Taiwan wasn't even part of so called China for most of human history.
They also claims to be Anti-CCP. But have done absolutely nothing against CCP. But because their love of China they must save China first ( helping CCP ) before they somehow get rid of CCP. Oh the irony.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#529Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why not start with the low hanging fruit? Be an inspiration for Chinese dissidents and topple the Business party (Republican/Democrat).
Remember CCP have no similarly as Republican or Democrat. They will never fight fairly with you. Once you amass enough and they see you as a threat. They will use any methods to take it away from you. See what happened to Jack Ma. [1] 1: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-01/jack-m...
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#530Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Moving-... https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Relativ...
That's not "moving the goal posts". The ACTUAL complaint is that people demand an AUDIENCE - they want to be able to broadcast their views to the largest number of people possible. Nobody in the US is being "quashed" - you can run your own website, print your own newsletter, and nobody is going to kick down your door or send you to a re-education camp. Like I said, Nazis run their own websites, and the Taliban is on…
Your first comment:
> Whose voice is getting quashed in the US? Everyone has a Facebook, Twitter, email, phones, a magazine, protests, their own news channels, subReddits.
Your second comment:
> So "Silencing" is just getting kicked from Twitter and FB?