Earlier quoted context omitted.
Convective ("heat") thunderstorms are pretty much impossible to forecast precisely. On the day of, I'd recommend to use the radar, satellite and wind measurement, to get a picture what's happening, not the forecast anymore.
"Use the radar, satellite and wind measurement" I did. And they showed me no clouds, rain or wind worth mentioning.
Windy.com
181–190 of 222 posts
Re: Windy.com
#182Earlier quoted context omitted.
Great to see some love for Forecast Discussions! As a pilot, and overall outdoor enthusiast I've relied on Forecast Discussions for many years. If I may be so bold, my app Deep Weather for iOS is designed to be the most convenient and easy-to-read source for Forecast Discussions. It's free (with some more advanced/optional features requiring a subscription): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deep-weather/id528748182
“Straight from the experts at NOAA”... but through a platform/app not affiliated with them in any way. I find apps that use that kind of marketing to make it sound like they are associated with the big agency they yank the data from to be really sleazy.
Re: Windy.com
#183Re: Windy.com
#184What causes this huge plot of very bad air in the middle of Russia near 63.597820342465404, 112.49690168386316?
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:2021-09-10..2021...
Re: Windy.com
#185https://earth.nullschool.net/
Re: Windy.com
#186Re: Windy.com
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
GFS takes a simple average of the ensembles for their avg model, I believe. The biggest problem is that you can't use statistics like you normally would in meteorology. Predictions are actually very good for knowing WHAT happens to a weather system, but not WHERE it happens. I work in the sailing space, so this is what happens there: A racing offshore sailor would consider a variety of models and ensembles. Then they…
That makes a lot of sense. I sail in SE Alaska. You'd be surprised how many people make their living on the water up here, but their understanding of forecasting seems to amount to "download windy app"! Anyways, the word ensemble is new vocabulary for me when it comes to forecasting - things are making more sense knowing what an ensemble is.
Re: Windy.com
#188Earlier quoted context omitted.
> , find a nearby airport, get their ATIS (or AWOS or ASOS) phone number and you can call and get a real-time report. Obviously it's current weather, not forecast, but it's often helpful. The US Government makes both METARs (current report) and TAFs (area forecast) available online. You can also get PIREPs (pilot reports) if you are interested in the conditions in the air.
I use an Android weather widget called Meteogram Pro. It supports pulling in and displaying METAR data, among a thousand other options. You can make plots of things like thunderstorm probability, thickness and altitude of different cloud layers, azimuth and elevation for all planets in the solar system, pollen index, tide height, you name it.