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Andrew Yang to launch a third party

politico.com

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Re: Andrew Yang to launch a third party

#161

Post by tptacek »

rayiner wrote: post #134
pstuart wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to forecast this. Trump supporters are effectively a cult, and every time something came along that made me think "ok, this time he's done it" (e.g., shooting someone on 5th Ave, which he was correct in his assessment), I've been proven wrong. We are still in uncharted waters.

Nope. They represent the economically moderate, culturally conservative segment of the population. (Fun fact: if you put Germany’s CDU’s positions into NYT’s political party poll, you end up in Trump’s Patriot Party: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/08/opinion/repub... .

I don't think that's true at all. I just played out the quiz over CDU positions (replacing "America" with "Germany", and correcting for places where German law is already to the "left" of American law). I came up with:

Marijuana: Somewhat pro-legalization

Same-sex marriage: No

Immigration difficulty: Much harder

Reduce regulations: Somewhat disagree

Reduce police forces: Somewhat disagree

Universal health care: Strong agree

Science unimportant: Strong disagree

Raise minimum wage: Somewhat agree

Better Germany than elsewhere: Strong agree

Gun control: Stricter

Whites systematically advantaged: Somewhat disagree.

Abortion: Illegal in all cases.

Economy is unfair: Somewhat agree

Racial minorities can advance: Neutral

Discrimination against whites > blacks: Somewhat disagree

Raise taxes on high earners: Yes

Path to citizenship: No

Wealthy people spur innovation: Somewhat agree

Climate change: Somewhat important

Reduce income differences: Somewhat agree

I think I can cite coverage for each of these positions, and, in come cases, actual votes. Someone reading this actually is a German who pays attention to German politics and can correct me if need be. Remember: these questions are all relative to the American status quo.

I wound up "nearest" the "New Labor Party", but in the top-left quadrant (where there are no party clusters in the American VOTERS data set). As one would expect, as a German CDU member, I'd be much more socially conservative than the "liberal" parties NYT proposes --- but notably distant from the Patriot party! --- and much more economically liberal than the "conservative" NYT parties.

Mainstream German politics are definitely outside of the "liberal" consensus of the US; you're at least half right about that. But there are a lot of positions of the Trump-era Republican party that are way out of the mainstream of the conservative German consensus.

Re: Andrew Yang to launch a third party

#162

Post by rayiner »

tptacek wrote: post #161
rayiner wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. They represent the economically moderate, culturally conservative segment of the population. (Fun fact: if you put Germany’s CDU’s positions into NYT’s political party poll, you end up in Trump’s Patriot Party: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/08/opinion/repub... .

I don't think that's true at all. I just played out the quiz over CDU positions (replacing "America" with "Germany", and correcting for places where German law is already to the "left" of American law). I came up with: Marijuana: Somewhat pro-legalization Same-sex marriage: No Immigration difficulty: Much harder Reduce regulations: Somewhat disagree Reduce police forces: Somewhat disagree Universal health care: Stron…

I agree with most of these. The NYT calculator is very sensitive to the marijuana legalization and science questions.

According to this CDU still opposes, though they proposed liberalization as part of compromise with greens: https://mjbizdaily.com/germany-rejects-recreational-marijuan...

On the science question, I think CDU would be a strong disagree. Germans are obviously science driven, but they don’t try to “sciencify” fundamental values questions like Americans. The premise of Christian democracy is religion as a source of truth and values in politics.

Re: Andrew Yang to launch a third party

#163

Post by tptacek »

rayiner wrote: post #162
tptacek wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's true at all. I just played out the quiz over CDU positions (replacing "America" with "Germany", and correcting for places where German law is already to the "left" of American law). I came up with: Marijuana: Somewhat pro-legalization Same-sex marriage: No Immigration difficulty: Much harder Reduce regulations: Somewhat disagree Reduce police forces: Somewhat disagree Universal health care: Stron…

I agree with most of these. The NYT calculator is very sensitive to the marijuana legalization and science questions. According to this CDU still opposes, though they proposed liberalization as part of compromise with greens: https://mjbizdaily.com/germany-rejects-recreational-marijuan... On the science question, I think CDU would be a strong disagree. Germans are obviously science driven, but they don’t try to “scie…

The Trump Republican party is trying to cure COVID19 with ivermectin and zinc. The CDU is laughing (ruefully) at them. I stand by my "science" answer.

The CDU is not ideologically compatible with MAGA Republicanism. I think you're keying in on the immigration and abortion stuff, which is a fair point, but really they're just not in the vector space of US politics, which is sort of the point that NYT piece is making.

Re: Andrew Yang to launch a third party

#164

Post by rayiner »

tptacek wrote: post #163
rayiner wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with most of these. The NYT calculator is very sensitive to the marijuana legalization and science questions. According to this CDU still opposes, though they proposed liberalization as part of compromise with greens: https://mjbizdaily.com/germany-rejects-recreational-marijuan... On the science question, I think CDU would be a strong disagree. Germans are obviously science driven, but they don’t try to “scie…

The Trump Republican party is trying to cure COVID19 with ivermectin and zinc. The CDU is laughing (ruefully) at them. I stand by my "science" answer. The CDU is not ideologically compatible with MAGA Republicanism. I think you're keying in on the immigration and abortion stuff, which is a fair point, but really they're just not in the vector space of US politics, which is sort of the point that NYT piece is making.

I see your point, but that’s not how I read that question. I read that question to ask whether the major policy debates of our time can be reduced to disputes over science and facts, which is how liberal Americans tend to view them, or instead disputes over values and principles, which is how conservative Americans tend to view them.

I agree that the CDU is distinct from MAGA Republicanism, insofar as they aren’t driven by a gratuitous “stick it to the libs” obstinance. At the same time, I think German conservatives are much closer to American conservatives than to American liberals in accepting values and religion driving policy, rather than science.

I cite abortion as the example, not because the CDU opposed abortion, but because of how they think about the issue. American liberals are pushing back against heartbeat abortion bans by arguing, for example, that an embryo doesn’t have a “heart” at 6 weeks, but instead it’s just developing cardiac cells. CDU folks don’t talk about abortion in scientific terms. Consistent with the NYT questionnaire, the issue of abortion isn’t a scientific one to them, it’s an issue of morality and religion. And they’re comfortable putting morality and religion into politics in a way that’s quite at odds with how American liberals view things.

Re: Andrew Yang to launch a third party

#165

Post by tptacek »

rayiner wrote: post #164
tptacek wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Trump Republican party is trying to cure COVID19 with ivermectin and zinc. The CDU is laughing (ruefully) at them. I stand by my "science" answer. The CDU is not ideologically compatible with MAGA Republicanism. I think you're keying in on the immigration and abortion stuff, which is a fair point, but really they're just not in the vector space of US politics, which is sort of the point that NYT piece is making.

I see your point, but that’s not how I read that question. I read that question to ask whether the major policy debates of our time can be reduced to disputes over science and facts, which is how liberal Americans tend to view them, or instead disputes over values and principles, which is how conservative Americans tend to view them. I agree that the CDU is distinct from MAGA Republicanism, insofar as they aren’t dri…

Just incidentally, here's a tool Jann Horn put together to chart party-line voting among the various German political parties.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https:/...

Re: Andrew Yang to launch a third party

#166

Post by DougN7 »

TomSwirly wrote: post #147
noahjk wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of my views trend liberal, but I don't really feel very well represented by the Democratic Party... really I think we would do better to have multiple smaller parties and a better voting system, and to somehow remove the giant monetary influences that seem to corrupt all decision making. The past five years have really done a number on us all. You're right about the huge divide that's developed, it's scary.

It just "developed" all on its own? It wasn't that one side went batshitinsane? Because from here in the Netherlands, it sure looks like the Republicans went totally off the deep end and aren't ever swimming back to shore...

I’ve wondered if Trump drove the party there or merely exposed and harnessed what was already going on. Either way, as a conservative, I find there is nobody representing me any more.
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