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Windy.com

windy.com

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Re: Windy.com

#41

Post by aeharding »

sealaska wrote: post #33

Windy is fantastic. But, I'm curious if there are any apps or weather models that give probability distributions? Telling me that it is going to blow 10 mph is useful, but telling me, for example, that there is a 60% chance that there will be a 10 mph wind and a 40% chance that the wind will blow at 15 mph seems more in line with how I would naively assume weather forecasting works. Right now, the ECMWF [0] model in…

Windy does allow switching between different models, which can be helpful to roughly gauge probability. Definitely not perfect though. And some of the models are consistently inaccurate for specific locations in certain conditions in my experience.

Re: Windy.com

#43

Post by kilotaras »

sealaska wrote: post #33

Windy is fantastic. But, I'm curious if there are any apps or weather models that give probability distributions? Telling me that it is going to blow 10 mph is useful, but telling me, for example, that there is a 60% chance that there will be a 10 mph wind and a 40% chance that the wind will blow at 15 mph seems more in line with how I would naively assume weather forecasting works. Right now, the ECMWF [0] model in…

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/local-weather/uk/london?fore... shows 50% and 80% confidence interval as well as median for rain and temperature.

Re: Windy.com

#44

Post by jschwartzi »

mmaunder wrote: post #29

Windy is great. The map is appealing, but be sure to check out the forecast view for a particular location. Also make sure you try different locations. I'm in the Salish Sea on Orcas Island in the San Juans and because we have a lot of topography here mixed with ocean, we have a lot of local effects, contour winds and so on and there are big differences between locations. Also note that Windy can get it wrong. I grew…

The forecasts for the US at forecast.weather.gov are really good too. I constantly refer to the hourly precipitation charts to figure out how much rain gear I should hike with, and their temperature predictions are useful too. Plus if they have any warnings or watches it’s helpful. It’s much better than any of the paid services out there.

Re: Windy.com

#45

Post by criticaltinker »

mmaunder wrote: post #29

Windy is great. The map is appealing, but be sure to check out the forecast view for a particular location. Also make sure you try different locations. I'm in the Salish Sea on Orcas Island in the San Juans and because we have a lot of topography here mixed with ocean, we have a lot of local effects, contour winds and so on and there are big differences between locations. Also note that Windy can get it wrong. I grew…

Also worth mentioning that Windy provides several different forecast models that you can choose between. There are high resolution models like NAM, and lower resolution models like GFS - toggling between them often gives me a better sense of what to expect.

Re: Windy.com

#46

Post by killjoywashere »

Windy is popular on Guam. Massive storms come through and usually demolish a chunk of Taiwan, but rarely do much damage on Guam. But it's always close. Windy gives a sense of how much wind we'll get with a very fine grain that's quite intuitive.

Re: Windy.com

#47

Post by mmaunder »

themodelplumber wrote: post #35
mmaunder wrote: post #29

Windy is great. The map is appealing, but be sure to check out the forecast view for a particular location. Also make sure you try different locations. I'm in the Salish Sea on Orcas Island in the San Juans and because we have a lot of topography here mixed with ocean, we have a lot of local effects, contour winds and so on and there are big differences between locations. Also note that Windy can get it wrong. I grew…

You live in a beautiful area. I grew up scouting around there...on one trip we were invited to embark & leave Eastsound earlier than anticipated because a couple of our members decided to "casually" lift some cigars from a store there (IIRC). xD Thanks for the ATIS info too. I wonder if it's the same type of message I hear on non-noaa VHF from nearby.

Thanks - I'd forgotten about the marine VHF reports. Rarely listen to them, and I should. LOL! Trust me Orcas has plenty of scandal that's worse than that. I'm sure less than half the island has all your social security numbers memorized.

Re: Windy.com

#49

Post by mmaunder »

criticaltinker wrote: post #45
mmaunder wrote: post #29

Windy is great. The map is appealing, but be sure to check out the forecast view for a particular location. Also make sure you try different locations. I'm in the Salish Sea on Orcas Island in the San Juans and because we have a lot of topography here mixed with ocean, we have a lot of local effects, contour winds and so on and there are big differences between locations. Also note that Windy can get it wrong. I grew…

Also worth mentioning that Windy provides several different forecast models that you can choose between. There are high resolution models like NAM, and lower resolution models like GFS - toggling between them often gives me a better sense of what to expect.

Agreed. It was interesting to see the deltas between the models for Hurricane IRA. Was significant 3 days out.
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