Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum • Hacker News Board

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#461

Post by sudosysgen » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:53 PM UTC

goatsi wrote: post #325

sudosysgen wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is not Iraq. It's insane to compare the two. Europe was okay with the first invasion of Iraq because they frankly had very little to lose and a lot to gain. Meanwhile suiciding the EU economy by cutting off Chinese exports would hurt the EU a lot more than it would hurt China and certainly much more than the invasion of Kuwait. In any case I'd recommend reading what Chinese generals write on the subject. For th…

>China is the only country in the world that produces everything it needs for daily operations, without a single exception, in one way or another. Tell me what I'm missing about their domestic oil industry then, because everything else I'm reading tells me they need to import around 10 million barrels of crude oil a day (primarily to produce gasoline and diesel, so it's very hard to substitute).

Indeed, they do. They still have the domestic capacity to expand internal production to cover most of those 10 million barrels. I didn't say they produce everything they need in sufficient quantities, just that they produce it. It would cause short term trouble and rationing but long term the impact is mitigated.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#462

Post by sudosysgen » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:55 PM UTC

c_o_n_v_e_x wrote: post #339

sudosysgen wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is not Iraq. It's insane to compare the two. Europe was okay with the first invasion of Iraq because they frankly had very little to lose and a lot to gain. Meanwhile suiciding the EU economy by cutting off Chinese exports would hurt the EU a lot more than it would hurt China and certainly much more than the invasion of Kuwait. In any case I'd recommend reading what Chinese generals write on the subject. For th…

"China is the only country in the world that produces everything it needs for daily operations, without a single exception, in one way or another." ...produces finished goods. China cannot do this without massive imports of raw materials copper, iron ore, coal, etc. China has effectively colonized Africa for access to said raw materials. Belt and Road is a way to set up overland routes to avoid any naval blockades.

China hasn't colonized Africa.

China produces very significant amounts of copper ore, iron ore, coal, and has the facilities to expand production on short notice .

It would hurt production in the short term, yes, but there wouldn't be anything that China would completely miss.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#463

Post by greyhair » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:58 PM UTC

belter wrote: post #443

JackeJR wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some think that if the US extended their protection to Taiwan, Beijing would not attempt to take Taiwan. Let's just assume for a moment that the US will fight off attacks by China to take Taiwan. And that US successfully ward off an attack. What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? Will the US be prepared to ward off attacks after attacks after attacks? This is unlikely to happe…

From a tactical point a view it looks a minor issue, except of course for the people of Taiwan. I cannot imagine what somebody in Taiwan, born and raised in a democracy, might be thinking when looking at what is happening in Hong Kong From the Strategic point of view, you have to look at a map to see what that would mean. China would take over Taiwan, and immediately expand its sea island building around its borders.…

Are you in the diplomatic corps? Are you certain that US, Australia, and Japan are not communicating to China? Not all diplomatic exchanges are made public. For example, it is clear that the US is currently talking with the Taliban leadership. What are they saying? We have no idea, but it is taking place. I suspect the same is true for the above.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#464

Post by sudosysgen » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 2:00 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #318

sudosysgen wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely nothing that Japan could do. Cutting oil from the ME would not be enough. China would ration oil and increase imports from Russia massively as well as reactivate domestic oil production, it would be great for the environment, China would carry on, and the US would make a lot of enemies.

The Ryukyus are mostly adjacent to Taiwan, it’s also where most of America’s Japan based military bases are. So in terms of air power brought to bare, China has a huge hill to climb with enemies right next door. The main reason that China has pushed for dominance of the entire South China Sea is simply so that they aren’t easily hemmed in from the rest of the world. A war between the USA and China would ultimately do…

No, it really doesn't. Japan doesn't have the capacity to deploy enough air power to affect the invasion. If Japan made the strategic mistake of getting involved militarily before the US, the Chinese would use ballistic missiles to strike Japanese airbases and supply infrastructure and carry on.

I agree it would do no good to have a war between the US and China for anyone. I want Taiwan to stay independent and chose its own destiny. But the reality is that China has an overwhelming advantage in-theater over anyone and it's only getting worse.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#465

Post by sudosysgen » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 2:04 PM UTC

samus wrote: post #448

sudosysgen wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In any case, the treaty is broadly illegitimate as a colonial treaty nowadays.

Whether it is colonial or not does not matter for legitimacy. A blanket rejection of treaties on the basis of being colonial and unfair would invalidate all border agreements between former colonial countries. Of course, the international community can condemn treaties and push for decolonialization, but in most cases this is foiled by the refusal of the colonial power to give up the claim. Examples: Falkland islands…

It has a huge impact in practice. The international community will look much more favourably on a country that violates a colonial treaty with its former Metropolis than with any other country.

In practice, colonial era treaties are less legitimate. No one except the parties directly materially affected care.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#466

Post by tablespoon » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 2:29 PM UTC

winrid wrote: post #377

tablespoon wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How do we know your friend is wrong about their existence? Because if they're right, there's no way to know anything about the world. Even the PRC government now admits the camps exist, and their propaganda approach has moved on from outright denial to other tactics.

> Even the PRC government now admits the camps exist Oh neat, I missed that. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/...

> Oh neat, I missed that.

I think that was pretty impossible to miss if you were following the story at all. And if you weren't following the story, why comment on it?

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#467

Post by throwaway210222 » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 2:49 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #460

throwaway210222 wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China has effectively colonized Africa Where do you you get this crap from? I live in Africa and I have never been told what to do by a Chinese official or business - or even a local official actin on the instructions of a mandarin. Unless you have watered 'colonisation' down to 'Chinese interests own some stuff in parts of Africa'. Which - to indulge my woke hat - pretty offensive to people who lived under actual…

That's fair, don't understand the downvotes. The thing is colonisation now extends to things like believing western science and liking western music. It's become watered down to just mean any form of developed world influence.

Just a small correction: there is no such thing as Western science.

There is just science.

[Unless people truly believe the Chinese space programme uses its own, different physics, or that the concrete in the new Ethiopian dam on the Nile river has its own chemistry.]

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#468

Post by dragontamer » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 2:50 PM UTC

ericmay wrote: post #452

blagie wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I predict: 1) China won't attack Taiwan until it can be assured a swift victory. 2) China will reach that state within our lifetimes. WWII was won, in part, by US manufacturing prowess. China has that advantage. It's military is currently behind in equipment, but if it chose to, it could build a blue water navy or whatever else it wants in record time. It also has the political ability to engage in major projects lik…

I either agree or think your predictions make sense, but I think your premises that lead to them are a little bit suspect. China doesn't have the same manufacturing prowess that the US did because of its location. In World War II, the US was essentially an untouchable supply chain with access to both oceans. It could fight Japan and supply Russia through the west if necessary, and it could fight Germany and supply En…

> Not to say why wouldn't the U.S. also build hypersonic missiles?

China isn't even building missile-defense cruisers (equivalent to the AEGIS system on US-ships). Our tomahawks (cheaper, subsonic cruise missiles) would obliterate them at much cheaper prices.

Why fly at 3000mph (hypersonic) when 500mph is already too fast for their defenses?

There's no reason to build hypersonic missiles until China (or Russia) demonstrates missile-defense capabilities. Even then: the methodology of "launch 20 missiles simultaneously to overwhelm their defense system" seems a lot cheaper than using developing or using hypersonic missiles.

Cheap subsonic cruise missiles are all you need unless your opponent can shoot them down. China needs Hypersonic because of AEGIS (ie: we've reliably demonstrated that we can shoot down missiles flying at 500mph). China hasn't done that, and doesn't seem to have any plans to obtain this technology yet.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#469

Post by JackeJR » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 3:05 PM UTC

rackjack wrote: post #363

JackeJR wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some think that if the US extended their protection to Taiwan, Beijing would not attempt to take Taiwan. Let's just assume for a moment that the US will fight off attacks by China to take Taiwan. And that US successfully ward off an attack. What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? Will the US be prepared to ward off attacks after attacks after attacks? This is unlikely to happe…

> Let's just assume for a moment that the US will fight off attacks by China to take Taiwan. And that US successfully ward off an attack. What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? Will the US be prepared to ward off attacks after attacks after attacks? This is unlikely to happen. America did this in Korea and it split the country in half. > With this, lets again assume that Chin…

I agree that once the growth slows China will start to see cracks in its society. This, I submit, is the reason why Beijing is doubling down on the nationalist path. Cast the West as the enemy and China as the victim of oppression to drum up nationalist sentiments.

The social compact I believe that exists in China is that the people put up with the curbs either out of ignorance of the lacks of curbs or because of the promise of a better life which comes along with increased job wages as long as they toe the party line.

The moment the bargain is not held up for the increased wages, the compact starts to get eroded. Turmoil in China if it happens will have a widespread and largely unknown consequences. Unknown because too many pieces are intricately linked to the stable functioning of China.

For one, I hope to be able to witness this one day.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#470

Post by robbedpeter » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 3:35 PM UTC

onethought wrote: post #151

robbedpeter wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The China of the opium wars was a completely different entity than Communist China. I don't see that there is any obligation whatsoever to deal with the ccp as if they are the legitimate successors of all things formerly China. They're lying, cheating, and stealing from every entity they deal with on the world stage, blatantly holding themselves above any law, even internally. This doesn't end well unless there's som…

I wasn't defending their action. Just pointing out that is the context they operate from. Whether it is fact or indoctrination isn't really important. Their action is 100% consistent with that belief. Every country is lying/cheating/stealing... Is there an honest operator out there?

Well, yes - if Apple or Samsung violate IP laws, there is recourse.

If China steals all the Arm Holdings IP and infrastructure in China, there is no recourse.

If I scam someone on EBay or Amazon almost anywhere in the Western world, they can take me to court given sufficient evidence and magnitude of the scam. If a Chinese seller on Alibaba or Amazon scams me, there is zero recourse.

The Western world has a surprising level of default trust and honesty in business. There are gross and obvious exceptions, but China is culturally and legally playing a vastly different and incompatible game.