"immune escape" Remember when we used to use non-bullshit language and just call it: Vaccine failure?
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Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity
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Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity
#12"immune escape" Remember when we used to use non-bullshit language and just call it: Vaccine failure?
The virus mutates quickly so the vaccine can't be expected to be as effective at new variants compared to the variants it was designed to combat.
If thats true why the boosters? Or are you claiming the boosters have been upgraded with latest variants?
Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity
#13Earlier quoted context omitted.
What that means is that the unvaccinated are much more likely to become seriously ill if infected: https://www.axios.com/unvaccinated-hospitalized-covid-60dc90... It does not mean that the vaccinated cannot spread disease, however.
There is presently to my understanding a lot of claims of severity reduction, but I would like to see evidence and an explanation for it. My working model is that a consistent alternative explanation is the vaccine reduces infection risk dramatically but once infected severity can be the same.
Lower hospitalization rates amongst the vaccinated seem to suggest less people are getting seriously ill.
Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity
#14> it takes eight times as many antibodies from a vaccinated individual to block the virus If this is the case, then how can we explain how vaccinated individuals experience less severe symptoms and fewer deaths? Is it because once vaccinated, the immune system is able to respond to this 8x higher demand?
Every article that leads with this kind of stat is guilty of lying by omission. The typical immune response produces 10,000-100,000 times more antibodies than “necessary” to fight an infection. If delta needs 8x more antibodies, then, well, our immune response is only overkill by a factor of 1,250-12,500. Perhaps that’s enough for some of the virus to escape. But it’s still plenty to prevent severe illness! Of course…
That's really interesting, thanks.
Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity
#15> it takes eight times as many antibodies from a vaccinated individual to block the virus If this is the case, then how can we explain how vaccinated individuals experience less severe symptoms and fewer deaths? Is it because once vaccinated, the immune system is able to respond to this 8x higher demand?
This is in comparison to the Alpha variant. Better quote:
>compared with the Alpha variant - in other words, it takes eight times as many antibodies from a vaccinated individual to block the virus.
Needing 8 times the antibodies int a problem if you have anitbodies to spare. Most vaccinated people do, but not all, depending on their immune system, exposure level, and vaccine reaction. This is why we see only slightly lower efficacy for the vaccine against Delta vs Alpha, not an 8X reduction in efficacy.
Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
The virus mutates quickly so the vaccine can't be expected to be as effective at new variants compared to the variants it was designed to combat.
If thats true why the boosters? Or are you claiming the boosters have been upgraded with latest variants?
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Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity
#17> “The team found that the Delta variant virus was 5.7-fold less sensitive to the sera from previously-infected individuals, and as much as eight-fold less sensitive to vaccine sera”
I read this as “natural immunity is better”. Unless I’m reading that wrong, why don’t we hear more about this? I’m vaccinated AND got a breakthrough infection and I’m worried that my immunity is weaker than that of my wife who was unvaccinated but recovered.
Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity
#18I was told this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
Unfortunately, every time Sars-CoV-2 spreads and increases its infection tally, mutation can occur which has a chance to beneficially influence selection in the next infection cycle.
Unlike how bacterial infections could gain or incrementally increase some of its antibiotic immunity or other attributes thanks to the conditions in a single host, for example incomplete or unnecessary antibiotic regimens, viral infections need to be infecting new cells in order to experience meaningful mutations. This is where immune function influences viral mutation.
Less immunity will result in more cell infection which directly creates opportunities for mutations as the virus replicates. If a vaccine improves host immunity enough that they replicate less virus, they will cause much less mutation. The relationship is non-linear because of the multiplicative nature of viral spread (r0?)
My opinion is that isn't anybody's "fault" that a pandemic virus is causing such unbelievable mayhem, but vaccinations and immunology is the truest course to achieving excellent results going forward.
Edit: Virus does not require fresh host to mutate
Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
What that means is that the unvaccinated are much more likely to become seriously ill if infected: https://www.axios.com/unvaccinated-hospitalized-covid-60dc90... It does not mean that the vaccinated cannot spread disease, however.
There is presently to my understanding a lot of claims of severity reduction, but I would like to see evidence and an explanation for it. My working model is that a consistent alternative explanation is the vaccine reduces infection risk dramatically but once infected severity can be the same.
That isn't how the immune system works. It's not a binary gate that's either open or closed. It's more like a war between two armies, and it depends on which side musters the larger army and how creatively the armies fight. If the vaccine reduces chance of infection, it will also reduce severity, because both operate via the same mechanism: antibodies killing the virus.
Re: Spread of Delta variant driven by both immune escape and increased infectivity
#20I was told this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
By whom? It's a pandemic, it affects everyone. It's right there in the name.
I'm fully vaccinated, and I spent half an hour at a bank yesterday (wearing an N95) and I'm voluntarily quarantining for two weeks.
It's a deadly disease. It doesn't care about your PR slogans or your political alignment. It does care about transmission, which is why avoiding unnecessary trips, wearing real ventilators (not cloth masks, Fauci is lying to you when he says they work, all scientific evidence is that they don't), and getting vaccinated all reduce the likelihood that either you will get it or you will transmit it to someone else. Nothing gets the likelihood to 0%.