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We Could Brighten Clouds to Cool the Earth

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Re: We Could Brighten Clouds to Cool the Earth

#31

Post by asdff »

epistasis wrote: post #23
eloff wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Source? I think we would avert disaster if we got net zero today. We wouldn't avoid change and things would continue to warm as you say. But it wouldn't be the end of civilization, just very inconvenient. In the other hand if we don't stop making the problem worse we will eventually activate feedback loops that can't be stopped and that do end civilization, kill the majority of humans and other species, and make huge…

The IPCC special report on limiting warming to 1.5C is probably the best summary of ways to avoid catastrophe: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ In particular, the figures in chapter 2 are particularly informative. We are going to need to start sequestering carbon in the later part of this century, with as of yet unknown methods, but it's doable. I would caution that climate scientists have been generally too conservative in…

>We are going to need to start sequestering carbon in the later part of this century, with as of yet unknown methods, but it's doable.

Seems like a good opportunity to kill two birds with one stone here with the climate and housing crises if we just plant trees and turn them into apartments.

Re: We Could Brighten Clouds to Cool the Earth

#32

Post by ncmncm »

_Microft wrote: post #30
kodyo wrote: post #10

We also need a cloud darkener in case the cloud brightener makes things worse.

The nice property of marine cloud brightening is that its effect goes away within weeks once you stop doing it. So if it turns out to have unexpected and unwanted side effects, we could just stop.

And then get even sharper temperature rise, which would be an even worse disaster.

Meanwhile, ocean acidification, unchecked, would go on to collapse the whole ocean ecosystem.

Re: We Could Brighten Clouds to Cool the Earth

#33

Post by eloff »

epistasis wrote: post #23
eloff wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Source? I think we would avert disaster if we got net zero today. We wouldn't avoid change and things would continue to warm as you say. But it wouldn't be the end of civilization, just very inconvenient. In the other hand if we don't stop making the problem worse we will eventually activate feedback loops that can't be stopped and that do end civilization, kill the majority of humans and other species, and make huge…

The IPCC special report on limiting warming to 1.5C is probably the best summary of ways to avoid catastrophe: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ In particular, the figures in chapter 2 are particularly informative. We are going to need to start sequestering carbon in the later part of this century, with as of yet unknown methods, but it's doable. I would caution that climate scientists have been generally too conservative in…

1.5 isn't going to happen. I'll be happy if we manage to keep it under 3. There's no guarantee that doesn't trigger a total disaster, but it's possible it would also just be extremely costly, damaging, and inconvenient.

At some level it would be a complete and utter disaster and it's not clear where that is. I think if we could magically reach net zero tomorrow, we'd be mostly fine. Obviously instead we will continue driving full speed towards the edge of the cliff, hidden somewhere in the darkness. I hope we apply the brakes earnestly and soon.

Re: We Could Brighten Clouds to Cool the Earth

#34

Post by eloff »

asdff wrote: post #31
epistasis wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IPCC special report on limiting warming to 1.5C is probably the best summary of ways to avoid catastrophe: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ In particular, the figures in chapter 2 are particularly informative. We are going to need to start sequestering carbon in the later part of this century, with as of yet unknown methods, but it's doable. I would caution that climate scientists have been generally too conservative in…

>We are going to need to start sequestering carbon in the later part of this century, with as of yet unknown methods, but it's doable. Seems like a good opportunity to kill two birds with one stone here with the climate and housing crises if we just plant trees and turn them into apartments.

It can certainly be part of the solution.

Re: We Could Brighten Clouds to Cool the Earth

#35

Post by ericlavigne »

The most damaging hurricanes rely heavily on warm water over their last 2-3 days before landfall. Suppose we focused these bright cloud emitters on the water in front of a tropical storm, as a way to prevent it from strengthening into a hurricane?

Imagine the city of Miami deciding that eliminating local hurricanes would benefit its local real estate market. They invest in a fleet of hurricane blockers to be deployed off their coast during hurricane season to reduce the odds of getting hit by any hurricane, and almost guarantee no more cat 5 hurricanes. This project is worth it for Miami because it has a dramatic effect on home values and insurance costs... And the world also benefits from the cooling that Miami's hurricane shield produces.

Re: We Could Brighten Clouds to Cool the Earth

#37

Post by vmception »

ericlavigne wrote: post #35

The most damaging hurricanes rely heavily on warm water over their last 2-3 days before landfall. Suppose we focused these bright cloud emitters on the water in front of a tropical storm, as a way to prevent it from strengthening into a hurricane? Imagine the city of Miami deciding that eliminating local hurricanes would benefit its local real estate market. They invest in a fleet of hurricane blockers to be deployed…

protip: New York City gets hit by hurricanes more than Miami

but its just a tiny current consistently protecting Miami at the last minute, for now

Re: We Could Brighten Clouds to Cool the Earth

#38

Post by jchrisa »

ericlavigne wrote: post #35

The most damaging hurricanes rely heavily on warm water over their last 2-3 days before landfall. Suppose we focused these bright cloud emitters on the water in front of a tropical storm, as a way to prevent it from strengthening into a hurricane? Imagine the city of Miami deciding that eliminating local hurricanes would benefit its local real estate market. They invest in a fleet of hurricane blockers to be deployed…

Thank you for this, it connects the dots between the economic value of carbon capture and its price. If it's worth it for a second tier city to spend $X billion on heat mitigation, then it's worth the similar amount to reduce the cause by the corresponding magnitude. There's some net-present-value math to be done, but that's for the CFOs.
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