Earlier quoted context omitted.
Absolute rubbish. You talk like there's something magical about Bitcoin, when in fact every profit-maximising firm will always use the cheapest energy available. Seriously what kind of pathetic argument is this, or am I missing something?
You're missing that economic theory doesn't align with the practical realities: it's expensive and wasteful to move most energy consumption around, you can't easily move an aluminum foundry or a city to the other side of the world to rapidly respond to market discrepancies.
El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as official currency, first country to do so
301–310 of 394 posts
Re: El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as official currency, first country to do so
#302Earlier quoted context omitted.
Doesn’t it seem concerning to tie a countries currency to something so volatile that it could literally halve over night? Not trying to argue. Just trying to understand.
Fiat currencies can go to zero in an instant via political changes. (Ex, see indian demonitization in 2016). All forms of money have risks. I think the diversification of supporting BOTH USD and BTC seems to get a bit of the best of both worlds.
Re: El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as official currency, first country to do so
#303Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, again that's simply not correct. We can empirically observe purchasing power and money supply, so there's no need to speculate. One-time changes to M2 of that magnitude have been shown to have small to no effect on inflation [0]. [0] https://www.commonfund.org/blog/chart-of-the-month-money-sup...
Your own article admits that the lack of inflation is due to other factors such as reduced lending and velocity of money. All else equal if there were 40 rubles in the economy yesterday and 80 tomorrow, your rubles have half the purchasing power they had before. The printing of the money prevented a deflationary effect that would have enrichened those who held onto dollars under a period of anemic lending and lowered…
Your claim was:
> It's a drop relative to what it would be if the money supply had not increased accordingly
If the money supply hadn't increased, those secondary effects would not have happened, so any idea that M2 maps linearly to inflation net unrelated climate effects is just incorrect. If you still believe it's true after that explanation, please back the claim with some actual information.
Re: El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as official currency, first country to do so
#304Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're missing that economic theory doesn't align with the practical realities: it's expensive and wasteful to move most energy consumption around, you can't easily move an aluminum foundry or a city to the other side of the world to rapidly respond to market discrepancies.
Yes, and I assume bitcoin magically fixes this somehow?
Bitcoin miners can respond to energy price in minutes, where most industry is hours, sometimes days (for capacity that already exists - months to years for capacity that does not). Stop/start costs are very low, so its easy to run only in profitable energy conditions.
Re: El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as official currency, first country to do so
#305Because they have both Dollar and Bitcoin as legal tender, the result is unclear. In theory, because USD is still cheaper (if Bitcoin is supplied constrained as it is promised), people will trade with USD and hoard Bitcoin. However, when crossing borders, USD is more cumbersome to move around, that may deter people to import products with "cheap" USD. It would be very interesting to observe, whether they will eventua…
The theory doesn't predict deflation. Any trade imbalance must be balanced out with an equivalent flow of money in the opposite direction. This means the quantity of money, and by extension the price level, will change according to the balance of trade. Therefore the theory predicts inflation in countries that have a trade surplus, and deflation in those that have trade deficit.
Re: El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as official currency, first country to do so
#306I'm really interested that they chose BTC as opposed to making their own, which as I understand it isn't super hard to do? Tying to an already-established commodity, and an exceptionally volatile one at that, seems wildly irresponsible to me, but I'm very VERY under-educated in this area
Re: El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as official currency, first country to do so
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, again that's simply not correct. We can empirically observe purchasing power and money supply, so there's no need to speculate. One-time changes to M2 of that magnitude have been shown to have small to no effect on inflation [0]. [0] https://www.commonfund.org/blog/chart-of-the-month-money-sup...
The post talks about inflation but doesn't mention which measure it uses. Hmmm... Also, the correlation coefficient 0.15 and an R^2 of 0.02. It means it doesn't explain all variance in the inflation but it clearly influences it. Finally, your last comments sounds like we actually can have a free lunch.
Re: El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as official currency, first country to do so
#308Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems their monetary policy is remittances. My guess is ppl will quickly cash out to dollars. But how will the dollars get back to the local exchanges unless people are buying bitcoin there? This seems like a disaster in the making.
Indeed, but it’s still a natural experiment to observe.
Re: El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as official currency, first country to do so
#309Earlier quoted context omitted.
On a very poor population where even a 1% swing in valuation can make a huge difference in someone’s life. There’s also no recourse for fraud here — the industry has all kinds of scrupulous players and isn’t as locked down as traditional banking. To me, it seems like El Salvador should have created a MoneyGram competitor and left it at that. They could remove/reduce commission without all the rest of the risks.
To your point, they could've partnered with TransferWise/Wise.com or OFX to build a white label app that allowed for frictionless remittance and fiat management for their citizens and "wallet management" (ie deposit accounts), and your usual fintech wallet accounts. This would be no different than the UK's Faster Payment's service being a managed service by Vocalink [1]. Some have proposed the US Fed issuing FedAccou…
Re: El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as official currency, first country to do so
#310Earlier quoted context omitted.
Actually, they are not even using lighning wallets. They are using a centralized payment processor that has personal accounts for users, like any other payment app. This centralized processor happens to use lightning wallets in its backend, but there is no 1:1 mapping of payment_account:lightning_wallet. And since Lightning itself doesn't interact with the blockchain except when you open/close payment channels, there…
The capacity of BTC is so low that if it had universal adoption, every human being could do around one or two transactions in their lifetime.