Computer security is and will continue to be so imperfect that it will remain extremely difficult for anyone to mandate real identity use on the broader internet. All the anti-censorship tools would work just as well against western governments and websites as they do against the middle east and asia. Wifi is ubiquitous and very hard to manage. People's identities are trivial to steal and would be a cinch to use if no money was changing hands. Hacking the client, password reuse, selling dead accounts, proxies and vpns from locations that don't require name use, off shore hosting.
Sure, many people wouldn't bother and just adapt. But clearly groups like Anon, 4chan, most of irc, #antisec and numerous others would avoid it all and go elsewhere. It's often repeated that the kids will hang around until something new is cooler. I imagine AnonymouSabu could do a pretty good job of jump starting a new social network all by himself if he got banned from twitter. Even if you have nothing to hide you'd probably head there if your friends are there.
Second is how practical PKI with identity management is on a nation scale. To make a serious run at 100% real identity all the time you probably need to go full public/private key, smartcard+pin, IP packet tagging for egress outside the nation's great firewall and so on. With less than all that it'd simply be too easy to avoid.The problem is, PKI with identity management is a really hard problem to do well. One of the largest PKI deployments in the world is the DOD. They wrangled for years on deployment, already have strict security protocols and a managed environment. None the less they had to shut the entire system down not that long ago and revalidate every identity because they had so many bad cards in active use.
Sure, the government probably isn't the best at that, hence why the Obama ID plan looks to open standards and a federated group of ID providers - presumably firms like Google, Facebook, Bank of America, Verisign and Verizon. The problem is that many of these firms are ill equipped to manage something you depend on for all aspects of your life, day in day out. I've edited out a bunch of specific examples, but suffice to say few or none of them have all the pieces needed to manage such an important, hands on and support reliant business.
On paper it all seems achievable, but in practice it seems highly unlikely to me that you'll see universal required ID. Facebook would like to see it for any number of business reasons, but when it comes down to it it probably matters little what they think.
All that because somebody related to someone who figured out how to help college students hook up thinks people might be a bit nicer in blog comments? Yah right.