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It's not a labor shortage – it's a wage and workers rights shortage

thehill.com

221–230 of 427 posts

Re: It's not a labor shortage – it's a wage and workers rights shortage

#221
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s easy to understand. If your customers won’t buy Mexican food at a high enough price to pay $20/hour, it’s better to close than to stay open and lose money. Labor is the highest cost for a restaurant (higher than rent) so bumping wages from $15 to $20 may not be possible if you can’t also raise prices by 30%. This may be hard to understand for us rich programmers. But it’s quite simple for companies that have rea…

> It’s easy to understand. If your customers won’t buy Mexican food at a high enough price to pay $20/hour, it’s better to close than to stay open and lose money. I think the root problem is that most restaurant dining experiences are not worth the $30+ per person for enough people compared to cooking and eating at home. I would like to see more places where you order at a register and bus your own food with minimal…

How is this different than 'nice' fast food restaurants? Chainwise, Chipotle or similar?

Re: It's not a labor shortage – it's a wage and workers rights shortage

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> b) have a business so close to the brink of shutting down that an additional $20-50 an hour will shutter you. This is the default state of businesses in competitive markets. If you could do with less then you could charge less, and one of your competitors will start doing that to take your customers, so you have to do the same. Of course, the alternative is to pay more and then raise prices. Which you might not be…

Claims like this about UBI are simply unknown. You can't say it with any certainty, not even close. To begin to have UBI you'd have to increase taxes substantially, and you'd have to prove that doing that would actually lead to better results for businesses and the people.

The taxes thing confuses people mostly because they don't understand how existing phase outs work.

Right now the government pays benefits that are already close to what a UBI would pay, but in food/education/housing/other assistance. Then those benefits aggressively phase out.

The phase outs are crazy. First, they invert what you want from a progressive tax system, because lower income people are paying the highest marginal rates. You might be paying a "10% tax rate" but if you're also losing $0.50 of every dollar to benefits phase outs, your marginal rate in practice is 60%.

Worse, because the benefits phase outs are individual to every program, they overlap randomly to nonsensical effect. Someone making $20,000 might have a marginal rate of 80%, at $24,000 it's 110%, at $28,000 it's down to 40% but at $30,000 its back up to 60%. This is obviously very stupid and creates bad incentives.

Now suppose we align all the phase outs so that a) the phase out rate is uniform across all programs and b) we don't have lower income people paying higher marginal rates than higher income people.

Then you might have something this. Everyone pays a 10% tax rate from $0 to $60,000 and a 30% tax rate after, and benefits phase out at a rate of 20% from $0 to $60,000 and are fully phased out by $60,000.

Well, it turns out this is mathematically equivalent to paying the benefits to everyone unconditionally and having a flat 30% tax rate starting from $0. And if you convert all the benefits to cash instead of food vouchers and such then you have a UBI.

On paper eliminating the phase outs costs a ton of money -- everyone making $60,000 would have to pay $12,000 more in taxes! But then they all receive a $12,000 UBI and it just cancels out.

The primary transfer effect is really in not having such aggressive phase outs, i.e. not putting such high marginal rates on lower income people. The effect is that they have more money, and higher income people have to pay higher taxes to pay for it. But not by the full amount of the UBI, only by the difference between the status quo of aggressive phase outs and the less aggressive ones that make the marginal rate curve not so silly. You end up with a modest transfer from higher income people to lower income people, vs. the status quo.

And then, because lower income people are more likely to spend what they receive than higher income people, you get more consumer demand, which is good for businesses.

You also have a greater incentive to work for lower income people, because they get to keep 70% of what they earn instead of 40% (or -10%).

Re: It's not a labor shortage – it's a wage and workers rights shortage

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Claims like this about UBI are simply unknown. You can't say it with any certainty, not even close. To begin to have UBI you'd have to increase taxes substantially, and you'd have to prove that doing that would actually lead to better results for businesses and the people.

> To begin to have UBI you'd have to increase taxes substantially These would be far less of a burden than the implied taxes arising due to existing means-tested welfare. The incentive distorting effect from that sort of means-testing is extremely high, and the whole point of the UBI/NIT is to dispense with that.

[deleted]

Re: It's not a labor shortage – it's a wage and workers rights shortage

#224
post #58

This is so visible even in the tech industry. If your company has trouble hiring, it's a signal that something is wrong with the hiring process and the company needs to change it. Maybe stop leetcode nonsense, maybe offer more equity. Your managers should spend time to figure out the root cause and fix the problem. If your management cannot figure it out, fire them first. If your company has trouble retaining enginee…

It’s been fun to see this play out at my current (self-destructing) company. A large percentage of senior engineers have left; rather than make changes, management is going about business as usual.

This is one of the reasons why management in tech is hated so much. The repercussions for them are lower even when things are crumbling.

This is also the reason why the best leverage for engineers is to switch regularly.

Why wait for the company to take action when management shows no interest or is not incentivized to promote their own team?

Re: It's not a labor shortage – it's a wage and workers rights shortage

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Underrated comment. A lot of “growth” is tricks. I have seen so many software companies sacrifice the fundamental health of the product in order to hit certain “growth” numbers, on the assumption that they’ll just be able to keep doing it. But the more realistic outcome is either acquisition (pass the buck and reset the clock) or catastrophic failure.

See: * Strongarming new user account creation even though most new users will immediately bounce. * Removing features from the free tier to "drive conversions" to premium, whilst ruining the quality of the free tier that drew users in the first place. * Filling the product with re-engagement nagware and notification bloat. etc.

This is the exact kind of behavior I criticized the other day [1] when I said that making products monetizable makes them worse.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28408862

Re: It's not a labor shortage – it's a wage and workers rights shortage

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking of dirty secrets. There was a time not so long ago when there was not so much demand for dining out. Healthy food was generally prepared at home from fresh raw ingredients. Perhaps there was a small veggie garden in the back yard. There was plenty of time for shopping and cooking, and people didn't have to somehow squeeze these activities between the long commute back home from the second job and sleep time,…

> Healthy food was generally prepared at home from fresh raw ingredients. Perhaps there was a small veggie garden in the back yard. Yup, that's called a subsistence economy. It's a very good thing that we can spend our time doing something better than back-breaking agricultural work and general housekeeping. That's what progress is all about.

This is the only possible future and the best possible future. Progress is intrinsically a very good thing. The disappearance of the home-cooked meals can't possibly be anything but a great liberation. We have better things to do than feed healthy food to our children.

We have the results to show for it:

> In the 1960s and 1970s only 13 percent of U.S. adults and 5 to 7 percent of U.S. children were obese.

> The US obesity prevalence was 42.4% in 2017 – 2018.

> For children and adolescents aged 2-19 years in 2017-20181 the prevalence of obesity was 19.3%.

https://www.apa.org/pi/families/resources/newsletter/2012/07...

https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html

https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/childhood.html

Re: It's not a labor shortage – it's a wage and workers rights shortage

#227
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're presenting it as he has an infinite money supply and just of pure stupidity and greed doesn't want to pay $20 or $50 per hour. Maybe his supply is not unlimited, and maybe nobody would buy a taco for $50 and he knows it, and he made the calculation and decided there's no way to pay all his costs, charge the price that people would be willing to pay, and make a profit. Now, if you know how to do it, there's a b…

Christ, people here and their taller than standard horses. My girlfriends dad owns a pizza place and walked away with $5k last year, after paying rent, supply and wages. Where do they magically pull this money from? They aren’t evil banker types with bags marked “$$$” full of money like people here seem to think and it is disgusting they’re considered cheap instead of just “people will absolutely not pay the increase…

it’s not magic. there are inputs and outputs. raise prices by a buck a pizza. people will absolutely pay it. problem solved.

Re: It's not a labor shortage – it's a wage and workers rights shortage

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dirty open secret about development is that in highly developed countries with low inequality, human labor is just horrendously expensive, and since dining out has costs dominated by human labor, even relatively wealthy people dine out rarely. Ask the Swiss or Danes. Cooks can have a living wage, but fancy meals are comparatively much more expensive than their equivalents in the US, given their lack access to und…

Speaking of dirty secrets. There was a time not so long ago when there was not so much demand for dining out. Healthy food was generally prepared at home from fresh raw ingredients. Perhaps there was a small veggie garden in the back yard. There was plenty of time for shopping and cooking, and people didn't have to somehow squeeze these activities between the long commute back home from the second job and sleep time,…

Sure, it "was prepared" - but by whom? For example, by the wife - for whom it would be a full-time job, together with another full-time job of raising the kids and another one of cleaning the house and maintaining it. Or, in richer homes, by a servant - who would often work for little more than home and food, and certainly wouldn't have such benefits as mandatory vacation, sick leave, pension fund, unemployment insurance and workers comp. You can argue a lot about which model is preferable - and people certainly do all the time - but you have to take the model in its entirety here. You can't have people working full time jobs and then have plenty of time for shopping and cooking things from scratch. We'd have to choose one or the other. And we'd have to choose having a backyard vegetable garden, feeding one person, or industrial farming, feeding 7 billions people. If you're rich enough, you can still afford the former - along with a servant to cook your healthy meals - but the whole 7 billions still can't.

Re: It's not a labor shortage – it's a wage and workers rights shortage

#229
post #52
post #12

Painfully obvious too. My little local Mexcian place will be closing down because of a lack of cooks. Talking to the owner, he was complaining about government benefits, and how they all want $20 an hour. I don't understand it, that you'd either a) be willing to drive your business into the ground serving a limited menu because you won't hire a couple cooks at $20 an hour, or b) have a business so close to the brink…

You're presenting it as he has an infinite money supply and just of pure stupidity and greed doesn't want to pay $20 or $50 per hour. Maybe his supply is not unlimited, and maybe nobody would buy a taco for $50 and he knows it, and he made the calculation and decided there's no way to pay all his costs, charge the price that people would be willing to pay, and make a profit. Now, if you know how to do it, there's a b…

[deleted]

Re: It's not a labor shortage – it's a wage and workers rights shortage

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't understand it, that you'd either > > a) be willing to drive your business into the ground serving a limited menu because you won't hire a couple cooks at $20 an hour, or > > b) have a business so close to the brink of shutting down that an additional $20-50 an hour will shutter you. Restaurants run on notoriously thin margins ( https://upserve.com/restaurant-insider/profit-margins/ ). There's a reason resta…

Maybe we need buffet-style restaurants that serve nutritious perishable food without all the extra plating, waters, and other frivolities so people can bask in being served and pretend they are aristocracy. Everyone cooking is a massive inefficiency, and yet paying for conventional restaurants is also uneconomical. Eating shelf-stable food is cheaper than cooking for most people, but only until the bad health effects…

Restaurants run the gamut from the dinky places not much larger than kiosks that simply microwave your food on demand to really fancy and expensive businesses. And the dinky places do have higher profit margins, assuming they don’t overstock the place. Of course, people applying for jobs in the dinky places don’t expect to get paid more than people working at fancy restaurants (with slimmer profit margins and higher labor costs).

And that’s not considering people willing to lose money so they can own a coffee shop!

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