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New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology

backreaction.blogspot.com

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Re: New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology

#61

> Two years ago, I told you about a paper by Subir Sarkar and his colleagues, that showed if one analyses the supernovae data correctly, without assuming that the cosmological principle holds on too short distances, then the evidence for dark energy disappears. That paper has been almost entirely ignored by other scientists. Is this a case of science advancing one funeral at a time? We have to wait for the dark energ…

There is more evidence for dark energy. Discrepancies in redshift vs distance are just one, and there are interestingly also other explanations for it. IIRC in lambda-CDM, if you don’t have dark energy, the whole universe just looks very different, eg the structures of galaxies, groups and supergroups etc are not the same. It might still be wrong, but more nails are needed for this coffin.

Sarkar addresses this other evidence in this interview:

https://youtu.be/JJzU9hDjiRk?t=819

In summary, there is a strong selection bias in cosmology toward the standard model which induces "predictions" that confirm themselves. One bit of evidence he presents, dozens of studies were found to be within one sigma of the wmap measurement and not naturally distributed as one would expect.

Re: New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology

#62

> Two years ago, I told you about a paper by Subir Sarkar and his colleagues, that showed if one analyses the supernovae data correctly, without assuming that the cosmological principle holds on too short distances, then the evidence for dark energy disappears. That paper has been almost entirely ignored by other scientists. Is this a case of science advancing one funeral at a time? We have to wait for the dark energ…

> without assuming that the cosmological principle holds on too short distances There's still the problem of colliding galaxies showing a weakly interacting centroid that's shifted compared to the masses but interacts with the visible masses. If truly are variation in the local constants, then one has to explain why these variations shows inertia, at such point it starts looking more and more like matter

That is evidence for dark matter, not dark energy.

Re: New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology

#63
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a cosmologist but... Is it possible to have both photon tiring and expansion and still measure the same numbers in experiment? Also wouldn't the arc separation of deep field stars increase detectably with expansion?

Maybe. But my reasoning is to assume as little as possible and start reasoning up from the point in history where the need for an explanation arose. And the need for an explanation arose when Hubble saw the redshift. He and Zwicky preferred tired light over galactic recession, but the halfwit academic establishment went with galactic recession.

A fair approach.

Incidentally, I just drew some diagrams and with the assumptions that the Earth is not at the centre of expansion, Earth orbit has extremes (for parallax), and all light only takes straight routes, my second question has a negative answer.

But if one puts a gravitational lens on the view of one of the two stars then (based on a fast doodle though) it looks like maybe expansion could be detected.

Re: New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology

#64

> Two years ago, I told you about a paper by Subir Sarkar and his colleagues, that showed if one analyses the supernovae data correctly, without assuming that the cosmological principle holds on too short distances, then the evidence for dark energy disappears. That paper has been almost entirely ignored by other scientists. Is this a case of science advancing one funeral at a time? We have to wait for the dark energ…

> without assuming that the cosmological principle holds on too short distances There's still the problem of colliding galaxies showing a weakly interacting centroid that's shifted compared to the masses but interacts with the visible masses. If truly are variation in the local constants, then one has to explain why these variations shows inertia, at such point it starts looking more and more like matter

That's about dark matter, this was about dark energy.

Re: New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology

#65

> It increasingly looks like we live in a region in the universe that happens to have a significantly lower density than the average in the visible universe. This area of underdensity which we live in has been called the “local hole” that sounds really weird, if the cosmological principle is invalidated, does that mean that we have to reject the Copernican principle as well? the text seems to imply that there is some…

No I don't think it's like that. We know that matter and vacuum clump together at a series of increasing scales: the solar system, our galaxy, the local cluster, some surrounding supercluster, maybe there is a superdupercluster level after that, but the theory being disputed is that the hierarchical clustering stops after those N levels, and after that, the superduperclusters (or whatever) are distributed randomly in…

The local hole doesn't seem so contrarian, as the 600 Mly is smaller than the multiple Gly of the funny quasars.

Re: New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology

#66

> It increasingly looks like we live in a region in the universe that happens to have a significantly lower density than the average in the visible universe. This area of underdensity which we live in has been called the “local hole” that sounds really weird, if the cosmological principle is invalidated, does that mean that we have to reject the Copernican principle as well? the text seems to imply that there is some…

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For space reasons I'll cut my reply into two parts. The first discusses the Copernican principle in question, the second answers your question about this specific blog post.

The modern understanding (and name) of the Copernican principle is really owed to mid-20th-century Hermann Bondi's work in general relativity, and it is a generalization of the initial Copernican model of heliocentricity, with the sun at the centre of the universe, and the Earth, other planets, and distant stars tracing out exactly circular concentric orbits around it.

At its most general while still retaining its strength, the Copernican principle says that in a system with certain symmetries, there is no distinguished position on a circular orbit. This is not just orbits within a 4-dimensional spacetime; it applies in certain many-dimensional phase spaces too.

(One can generalize further by giving up some strength and say that most spaces with certain symmetries admit a notion of typicality which applies to any choice of initial momentum almost everywhere in the space. We can then discuss how such a measure breaks in more complicated systems. Consider translational symmetry on the Earth on an overcast moonless night. If you choose a random spot on Earth and then swim or walk a kilometre or ten in any direction, your view of the surface features out to the horizon is unlikely to change. If you found yourself somewhere in a salty body of water nowhere near land you would struggle to tell with any precision where on Earth you were or which compass direction you had moved. If you found yourself somewhere in a sandy desert or flat scrubland far from human settlement and no "celestial guides" like the position of the sun, again you would struggle to tell with any precision where on Earth you were or the direction you are facing. There are however atypical features of the surface of the Earth which break translation symmetry: coasts, edges of forests, peaks of mountains, human settlements, Manhattan, you name it. Moving from water to land or vice-versa clearly breaks some global notions of typicality. However there is a lot of coast on the Earth. You'd probably only find complete atypicality when close enough to major landmarks like the Great Pyramids of Giza or Niagara Falls. We can also add in a notion of temporal typicality -- sufficiently close to sunrise or sunset, or on starry nights, it is easier to orient oneself towards compass points.)

Our solar system's mass distribution is only approximately spherically symmetric, and planetary orbits are non-circular ellipses, so Copernican heliocentricity holds only approximately. And of course we now know that other stars do not orbit our own (even nearby ones do not move in a circular or even elliptical orbit around it). The Copernican approximation is still locally useful as a basis for comparison with observations, and those led quickly to Kepler discovering the features of stable elliptical orbits, Galileo discovering the large moons of Jupiter and their orbits around it, he and others the phases of various planetary bodies, and ultimately Newtonian gravitation.

Copernican heliocentrism is thus correct in some effective limit: it works as long as we do not look too closely at small details of the sun's wobbles or perturbation of various orbits by Jupiter, and as long as we are only considering things at a solar system scale. (It applies in many other solar systems too: a central mass tends to entrain smaller masses into nearly-circular orbits. And it is useful for comparison studies of star systems where orbits are far from circular (many many comets, strange exoplanets) or where there are two or more stellar masses surrounded by smaller bodies.). And that it is not exactly correct made (and still makes) it even more useful in exploration of the real solar system.

There is a notion of Copernican typicality in galaxies too. There is nothing clearly special about our solar system's place on its orbit through the Milky Way, thanks to the galaxy's approximate axisymmetry. Likewise, except close to the galactic centre, the galactic edge, or well outside the plane of the disc, virtually all star system orbits through the Milky way are highly typical. As in Copernican heliocentrism where the position of Earth at any time isn't particularly special, "Copernican Sgr A* centrism" means the position of the sun isn't particularly special either. Of course we are adapted to "goldilocks" atypicality at the solar system scale: we thrive in a family of approximately 1 a.u. orbits, and would struggle to survive in most others. We are less sensitive to the path our solar system takes through the galaxy.

Next, there is the Copernican principle in cosmology. This Cosmological Principle starts with the greatest symmetry: a universe which looks the same in every direction from every possible vantage point. Cosmology is in many ways a study of how the Cosmological Principle breaks down. It does in various ways:

* Locally, we're on a planet. On a starry night, down looks very different from up. There are our solar system's planets in various directions but not in most directions.

* We're also in a galaxy in a local cluster: from the southern hemisphere we see the galactic bulge. Dust and gas distributions are denser in some directions than others. We can also see satellite galaxies like the large Magellanic cloud. We can also see M31 taking up a surprisingly large solid angle of the sky (more than the moon; it's just that the Andromeda galaxy is dim), and a handful of others.

* There is a Cosmic Web structure to bright clusters of galaxies, and (misleadingly named but definitely sparser) "supervoids" between the filaments of the web. There are also smaller overdensities and underdensities in these large regions.

However, we have not done much damage to the typicality of our vantage point. There are lots of similar star systems in lots of similar galaxies in lots of similar clusters in some area of similar Cosmic Web density.

It is clear, though, that the entire cosmos is not uniform, that there are various boundaries against which one can take an orientation.

Cosmology is also about understanding temporal typicality too. Even in the very early 20th century, there were questions being studied: has the universe always looked like this, with lots of galaxies containing many stars like our own? Trying to answer this question with the hard requirement that any answer be in concordance with available evidence led us to a definite no. In the reddest, dimmest, smallest-solid-angle galaxies we have observed, our sun would be extremely atypical based on its spectral lines indicating elements other than hydrogen and helium, but in less-red, less-dim, less-small-solid-angle galaxies (right up to M31) we see that our sun would be less and less unusual.

We can then think of temporal boundaries: what happens in the very earliest times? What's at the highest redshift (answer: the cosmic microwave background and no bright galaxies)? What does that imply about the deeper past? Does it imply anything about the future?

The concordance cosmology -- the standard cosmology, with \Lambda-CDM serving as its mathematical expression -- works exactly with all these various "distractions" smoothed out. Rather than considering star-filled galaxies forming clusters of various sizes, we consider a dust uniformly scattered through an expanding space, with non-gravitational interactions (radiation pressure) becoming more important in the past and less important in the future. This picture is then deliberately perturbed with features found by astronomers, and those perturbations are studied for their impact. Most remain local, a scale far far from cosmological.

Informally, this means "We don't care what happens inside individual galaxies, each of which is just one mote of the cosmological dust, and we track the components generating the energy-density of a typical point in space as the dust -- or its various components -- dilute with the expansion, or grow denser as we look into the deep past".

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Re: New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology

#67

> It increasingly looks like we live in a region in the universe that happens to have a significantly lower density than the average in the visible universe. This area of underdensity which we live in has been called the “local hole” that sounds really weird, if the cosmological principle is invalidated, does that mean that we have to reject the Copernican principle as well? the text seems to imply that there is some…

1/2 For space reasons I'll cut my reply into two parts. The first discusses the Copernican principle in question, the second answers your question about this specific blog post. The modern understanding (and name) of the Copernican principle is really owed to mid-20th-century Hermann Bondi's work in general relativity, and it is a generalization of the initial Copernican model of heliocentricity, with the sun at the…

2/2

Some years ago there was no reason to think that the dust was diluting away with any driver other than some single impulse in the distant past. An initial acceleration, followed by an eternity of inertial motion. More recently evidence has tended to disfavour purely inertial motion, driving the study of possible mechanisms for (and expressions of) ongoing acceleration.

A strong enough violation of the cosmological principle -- that there is something unexpected and atypical about the local neighbourhood our galaxy cluster is in -- might drive us back to a purely inertial expansion, if that atypicality is causing us to mistake a local gravitational acceleration for a cosmological one. This is the topic of the Hossenfelder blog entry.

However, one possible result is that there is something unexpected about the gravitation in the local neighbourhood, but that it applies in other local neighbourhoods too, including those containing extremely bright sources like quasars, returning us to the problem of accelerated expansion. Real proposals that are under investigation include the dynamical outflow of gas and stars from galaxy clusters, driven by the internals of these clusters and the gravitational influence of neighbouring overdensities (our "local hole" is adjacent to several including the Shapley Supercluster, about 231 Mpc distant). Such processes over cosmological timescales may serve to drive galaxy clusters towards typicality.

There are also many open questions about the intermediate regime between the cosmological scale and the galactic scale each of which can be studied with a much more easy to work with approximation of the full theory of General Relativity. z ~ 0.04-0.55 - ~ 100-250 Mpc is right in that intermediate regime. The growth of our theoretical toolbox may resolve some blurry problem at the length scales that are at the root of the arguments in several of the papers Hossenfelder's blog post refers to. The result might be that the allegedly unexpected local phenomenon ("the local hole") should have been expected after all. See https://astrobites.org/2021/09/01/gravity-on-all-scales/ for some details.

Re: New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology

#68

Any time dissenting physics/astronomy opinions show up on here, it's always Sabine Hossenfelder. Is she a lone wolf or the face of a larger community?

I also watch PBS spacetime series.

I think https://youtu.be/dsCjRjA4O7Y is relevant here.

Re: New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology

#69
post #35
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be true if young scientists wouldn’t continuously make successful predictions based on cosmological principle among other observable effects of the general relativity and standard model. Make observable prediction, coherent thesis, then we’ll talk. Of course our models are not perfect, but it is best we have. Physics so far never dealt in “fundamental truths”, just good enough models. So far, this is best…

I'd argue that Einstein in particular cared a lot about "fundamental truths". Not everyone can be Einstein, but I'm glad some people care about asking deeper questions.

Ironically, it was Einstein who introduced the “cosmological constant” (and thus indirectly dark energy). I think later in life he called it a glorified fudge factor and his biggest regret.
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