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A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

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Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#71

Post by dkural »

ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #52
jonnycomputer wrote: post #2

This article never really tackles the fact that p(infected|vaccinated) != p(vaccinated|infected). With high-vaccination rates in Israel, that matters a lot. In fact, the scariest statistic it gives--that nearly 60% of serious hospitalizations are fully vaccinated) gives the p(vaccinated|infected), not p(infected|vaccinated). Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizat…

I think the science always knew this, but they mislead the population because being vaccinated is still better than not. The whole vaccination thing is a white lie. We have never eradicated the flu, it mutates too fast. Same is true with Covid-19. The medical establishment has always known this, yet they spread propaganda because, again, being vaccinated is safer. The numbers about 99% effective were a lie, they knew…

Could you provide a source for your 99%, given you're accusing others of lying?

The numbers I have are ~96% for the Pfizer, and ~94% for Moderna.

I explain this in another comment below, but even against Delta, the efficacy is actually quite high, even in the Israeli data:

Vaccine effectiveness vs. severe disease for younger (Vaccine effectiveness vs. severe disease for older (>50yr) = 1- 13.6/91.9 = 85.2%

The combined number suffers from Simpson's paradox, please read more:

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-...

& please stop spreading misinformation. 96-94% to 85-91% is against a new variant is hardly a drastic drop. The vaccine is saving millions of lives globally.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#72

Post by nomel »

criticaltinker wrote: post #17

At this point it is widely recognized that viral evolution is undermining the effectiveness of the current vaccines at preventing infection (~91% to ~66%) [1] and symptomatic illness (~95% to ~65%) [2]. Still, the benefits of vaccination remain significant - vaccines are helping prevent severe outcomes like hospitalization and death for many people. Researching formulations that are more robust to viral resistance is…

> Researching formulations that are more robust to viral resistance is already becoming a top priority.

Are you aware of any good resources to help a lay person understand the basic concepts around this?

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#73

Post by gowld »

ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #52
jonnycomputer wrote: post #2

This article never really tackles the fact that p(infected|vaccinated) != p(vaccinated|infected). With high-vaccination rates in Israel, that matters a lot. In fact, the scariest statistic it gives--that nearly 60% of serious hospitalizations are fully vaccinated) gives the p(vaccinated|infected), not p(infected|vaccinated). Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizat…

I think the science always knew this, but they mislead the population because being vaccinated is still better than not. The whole vaccination thing is a white lie. We have never eradicated the flu, it mutates too fast. Same is true with Covid-19. The medical establishment has always known this, yet they spread propaganda because, again, being vaccinated is safer. The numbers about 99% effective were a lie, they knew…

It's no game.The vaccine was extremely effective. After a year, a new vaccine will be needed for the new strains. Just like the flu vaccines.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#74

Post by rvp-x »

helge9210 wrote: post #57
conception wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> somewhat more deadly A magnitude more deadly. Flu's death rate is ~.1%, Covid's is about 2-3%.

> Covid's is about 2-3%. 0.7% in Israel. Much much less if you exclude terminal cancer, obesity and immunosuppressed transplant recipients.

Remember that a third of the US is considered obese[1] and 10.5% of the population is diabetic[2], another common risk factor for covid.

You probably know a lot of people are in those groups.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_obesity_r...

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/pdfs/data/statistics/national-d...

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#75

Post by icelandicmoss »

zz865 wrote: post #26

I remember earlier in the year talk of a Delta variant booster, but I haven't seen anything recently. Anyone have details? Edit: looks like its in development. https://www.npr.org/2021/07/09/1014744345/pfizer-is-pursuing...

I got the impression it was just another dose of the same vaccine(s) already available rather than a new thing.

I heard something about tests on vaccine combinations (i.e. different types of vaccine for your 1st & 2nd dose) a while back though but I can't remember the details, does anyone know what happened with that?

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#76

Post by nradov »

pgalvin wrote: post #8
Buttons840 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

p(i|v) = ( p(v|i) * p(i) ) / p(v) p(v|i) = 0.6 p(v) = 0.6 p(i) = ?; but it's high (record case counts) p(i|v) = p(i); high If Israel has a 60% vaccination rate, and 60% of those in the hospital are vaccinated, then doesn't this mean the vaccine has no effect on the chances of being hospitalized?

No, because you assume that a 10 year old has an equal probability of being hospitalised as a 90 year old (for example). Israel has a low overall vaccination rate because they have a very young population. If you restrict the sample to just >50 year olds (majority of hospitalisations), then both statistics look very different.

Based on CDC data a 90 year old has at least 30× the risk of hospitalization compared to a 10 year old.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#77

Post by nradov »

jonnycomputer wrote: post #59
jcelerier wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizations will be among the vaccinated I mean, that's still scary, people were hoping for exactly 0% of covid-related hospitalization if you're vaccinated

I can't argue about what general public thought; but I think the epidemiological consensus even before we had experience with these vaccines is that vaccine effectiveness wouldn't be 100%--based on our experience with other vaccines. Instead, we rely on population effects to do the work. If susceptibility to infection is above some point in the general population, then infections become a self-sustaining cascade thro…

Anti-vaxxers won't be effectively protected long term by those around them being vaccinated. The Delta variant is sufficiently contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect. All of us can expect to get exposed eventually.

https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#78

Post by nradov »

subsubzero wrote: post #68

What is not being said is some people are on the brink of death anyways and being vaccinated will not stop that trajectory(dying). The older you are the weaker your immune system is. A 97 year not vaccinated would most likely die after getting covid, either from the virus itself or an infection that happens after the body is weakened by the virus. The same fully vaccinated person may or may not die, if they do die it…

That's reasonably accurate but it's nothing new. The other endemic "common cold" coronaviruses already had a high fatality rate for frail elderly patients.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2095096/

There is a strong correlation between national obesity rates and COVID-19 death rates.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n623

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#79

Post by jonnycomputer »

nradov wrote: post #77
jonnycomputer wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't argue about what general public thought; but I think the epidemiological consensus even before we had experience with these vaccines is that vaccine effectiveness wouldn't be 100%--based on our experience with other vaccines. Instead, we rely on population effects to do the work. If susceptibility to infection is above some point in the general population, then infections become a self-sustaining cascade thro…

Anti-vaxxers won't be effectively protected long term by those around them being vaccinated. The Delta variant is sufficiently contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect. All of us can expect to get exposed eventually. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

I think this is why I didn't include the covid-anti-vaxxers in that mix; they're more like covid fatalists. Absent a vaccine, covid-fatalism--the idea that you will get it eventually--is not insane. Lots of simulations show you can flatten the curve with various measures, but the area under the curve ends up being the same in the long run; or at least that's my lay person understanding of it. Not getting everyone sick at once keeps everything getting overwhelmed at once ... but long sustained restrictions have costs too.

But all that logic is really thrown out the window with widespread availability of effective vaccines.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#80

Post by Zelizz »

bequanna wrote: post #64
helge9210 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Covid's is about 2-3%. 0.7% in Israel. Much much less if you exclude terminal cancer, obesity and immunosuppressed transplant recipients.

Right. So, an overwhelming majority of the people who “died from COVID” would have likely passed away in the near future from something unrelated. They just were unfortunate enough to catch COVID in their already incredibly fragile and deteriorating state and end up with COVID listed as their cause of death.

If a person with cancer is hit by a bus, their death is not and should not be attributed to cancer. Likewise, if someone with a critical illness is robbed of their last few months by COVID, then it is correct to attribute their death to COVID.

The logic of "they were going to die anyways" means we might as well change every cause of death to "old age" or "natural causes", because if nothing else gets us, that's how we will all eventually die. But, of course, that would be stupid, and it would make death statistics meaningless - which is why we don't do it for COVID deaths.

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