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A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

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Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#41

Post by jcelerier »

jonnycomputer wrote: post #2

This article never really tackles the fact that p(infected|vaccinated) != p(vaccinated|infected). With high-vaccination rates in Israel, that matters a lot. In fact, the scariest statistic it gives--that nearly 60% of serious hospitalizations are fully vaccinated) gives the p(vaccinated|infected), not p(infected|vaccinated). Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizat…

> Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizations will be among the vaccinated

I mean, that's still scary, people were hoping for exactly 0% of covid-related hospitalization if you're vaccinated

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#42

Post by nonomaybeyes »

If it's true that vaccines blunt the symptoms of infection, and that breakthrough cases still are as contagious as without vaccine (same viral load), then there could be more asymptomatic spreading by people who are not aware that they are contagious.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#43

Post by robocat »

zeteo wrote: post #28
_g5q8 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> rather ineffective against Delta I mean, this isn't true... less effective, sure. But it's not ineffective by any measure.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v... If they had advertised 42% effectiveness rating when it was first launched they'd have probably gone back to the drawing board. (This is what Pfizer did recently with a second version that was aimed specifically at Delta but didn't fare any better than the first version.)

Against the delta variant, the vaccine reduces transmission, significantly reduces severity, and significantly reduces risk of death: all extremely worthwhile goals.

Read https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrou...

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#44

Post by jonny_eh »

criticaltinker wrote: post #30
rubatuga wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think you’re fighting misinformation, but GP could be right in terms of T cell response.

Vaccination has been shown to induce an immune response including T cells [1]. However, vaccination induces a slightly different immune response compared to natural infection [2][3] . These differences may account for variation in effectiveness between vaccine-induced and naturally acquired immunity. [1] Rapid induction of antigen-specific CD4+ T cells is associated with coordinated humoral and cellular immune respon…

> differences may account for variation in effectiveness between vaccine-induced and naturally acquired immunity.

What's the variation you are referring to?

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#46

Post by aeternum »

rubatuga wrote: post #19
mmastrac wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't post conjecture like this that has been categorically shown to be untrue. Vaccines are effective and have been shown to decrease infection and serious illness rates.

You think you’re fighting misinformation, but GP could be right in terms of T cell response.

Then GP should have posted some evidence. It's lazy and hinders discourse to post a conjecture that can be quickly disproved with a quick search.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#47

Post by resource0x »

Some updates from Israel (based on Wednesday Sept 01 data)

"Some 11,246 new cases out of around 145,000 tests that were performed on Wednesday were diagnosed with the virus, the Health Ministry reported on Thursday evening, with 7.9% of those screened testing positive – the highest percentage since the start of the pandemic. Israel is in first place in the world in the number of daily cases per capita in the last seven days, according to international reports."

Source: https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/israel...

To put it in perspective: 11246 cases in Israel, in proportion to the population, is roughly equivalent to 400K cases a day in US.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#48

Post by throwaway894345 »

jcelerier wrote: post #41
jonnycomputer wrote: post #2

This article never really tackles the fact that p(infected|vaccinated) != p(vaccinated|infected). With high-vaccination rates in Israel, that matters a lot. In fact, the scariest statistic it gives--that nearly 60% of serious hospitalizations are fully vaccinated) gives the p(vaccinated|infected), not p(infected|vaccinated). Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizat…

> Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizations will be among the vaccinated I mean, that's still scary, people were hoping for exactly 0% of covid-related hospitalization if you're vaccinated

I'd be more concerned that 100% of people are vaccinated and that's still not enough to stop transmission.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#49

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

nonomaybeyes wrote: post #42

If it's true that vaccines blunt the symptoms of infection, and that breakthrough cases still are as contagious as without vaccine (same viral load), then there could be more asymptomatic spreading by people who are not aware that they are contagious.

> and that breakthrough cases still are as contagious as without vaccine (same viral load),

I would _not_ assume that this is settled science.

This out today:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262701v...

> These data indicate that vaccination shortens the duration of time of high transmission potential, minimizes symptom duration, and may restrict tissue dissemination.

Re: A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

#50

Post by baxtr »

jonnycomputer wrote: post #2

This article never really tackles the fact that p(infected|vaccinated) != p(vaccinated|infected). With high-vaccination rates in Israel, that matters a lot. In fact, the scariest statistic it gives--that nearly 60% of serious hospitalizations are fully vaccinated) gives the p(vaccinated|infected), not p(infected|vaccinated). Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizat…

Agree 100%. A friend of mine shared the article this morning and I basically said the same. By itself the 60% is a meaningless number and says nothing about the vaccine efficacy.

> An embarrassing failure for science.org

Yes. Looking at the author's bio, you would expect a more nuanced comment and not this kind of fear mongering.

Meredith Wadman

Meredith joined Science as a staff writer in September 2016, after covering biomedical research and its politics from Washington, D.C., for 20 years. Her current beat includes biology research, policy, and sexual harassment . She has been a staff writer for Nature and a contributing writer at Fortune. She has also written op-eds for The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and The Washington Post. Her first book, The Vaccine Race: Science, Politics and the Human Costs of Defeating Disease, was published by Viking (U.S./Canada) and Transworld (U.K.) in February 2017. Meredith earned her B.A. in Human Biology at Stanford University and began medical school at the University of British Columbia in her native Vancouver. She completed her medical degree as a Rhodes Scholar at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, and earned a master’s of science at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism.

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