21–30 of 102 posts
This article never really tackles the fact that p(infected|vaccinated) != p(vaccinated|infected). With high-vaccination rates in Israel, that matters a lot. In fact, the scariest statistic it gives--that nearly 60% of serious hospitalizations are fully vaccinated) gives the p(vaccinated|infected), not p(infected|vaccinated). Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizat…
I keep hearing that Covid is never going away (see recent Atlantic article). How is it surprising when vaccines designed to prevent hospitalization don't prevent infection.
Variants have been circulating throughout the population causing a high number of deaths for all of modern history. Now that we’ve encountered a somewhat more deadly and contagious version than normal and the “danger” of this version has been super hyped, we’re quite sensitive to all flu related news, all flu variants, all flu deaths, etc. Confirmation bias at work. We’re now noticing something that was there all along: people die from the flu.
Even if actual flu related deaths reverted to a pre-2020 level, I guarantee it would still be news. People will still be wearing masks, state/local governments will be enforcing mandates, etc.
Couple the above with the fact that a group of bureaucrats have managed to seize an almost dictatorial amount of “emergency” powers, you can bet this isn’t going away anytime soon.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
p(i|v) = ( p(v|i) * p(i) ) / p(v) p(v|i) = 0.6 p(v) = 0.6 p(i) = ?; but it's high (record case counts) p(i|v) = p(i); high If Israel has a 60% vaccination rate, and 60% of those in the hospital are vaccinated, then doesn't this mean the vaccine has no effect on the chances of being hospitalized?
Well, the article says 78% of people 12 yo and older are vaccinated in Israel. Not sure what percent if you drop it to include everyone. 87% of those who were hospitalized were 60 or older (which doesn't match the general population). I imagine that vaccination rates are much much higher than 60% among those over 60. In the US its around 80%. But also, hospitalizations are much more likely the older you get. Moreover…
I keep hearing that Covid is never going away (see recent Atlantic article). How is it surprising when vaccines designed to prevent hospitalization don't prevent infection.
This type of article is exactly what it says it is: a warning. Vaccines aren't a silver bullet and you still need to be a little careful right now. That's really the whole message. If you're already aware, that's great! help inform everyone else.
This article never really tackles the fact that p(infected|vaccinated) != p(vaccinated|infected). With high-vaccination rates in Israel, that matters a lot. In fact, the scariest statistic it gives--that nearly 60% of serious hospitalizations are fully vaccinated) gives the p(vaccinated|infected), not p(infected|vaccinated). Trivially, and to make the point, if 100% of people are vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalizat…
Exactly the same as “x% of automobile deaths were not using the safety belt”… What happens when everybody uses it?
Edit: looks like its in development. https://www.npr.org/2021/07/09/1014744345/pfizer-is-pursuing...
I keep hearing that Covid is never going away (see recent Atlantic article). How is it surprising when vaccines designed to prevent hospitalization don't prevent infection.
Flu was the perfect crisis hiding right under our noses. Variants have been circulating throughout the population causing a high number of deaths for all of modern history. Now that we’ve encountered a somewhat more deadly and contagious version than normal and the “danger” of this version has been super hyped, we’re quite sensitive to all flu related news, all flu variants, all flu deaths, etc. Confirmation bias at…
Israel went very heavily with Pfizer which ended up rather ineffective against Delta. With a more balanced mix they would have probably fared better.
> rather ineffective against Delta I mean, this isn't true... less effective, sure. But it's not ineffective by any measure.
If they had advertised 42% effectiveness rating when it was first launched they'd have probably gone back to the drawing board. (This is what Pfizer did recently with a second version that was aimed specifically at Delta but didn't fare any better than the first version.)
e.g. 4 day work week (2 days full shutdown) to reduce transmission by preventing people going into offices and businesses.
And mandatory training and financial support to all businesses to move online and remote.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Please don't post conjecture like this that has been categorically shown to be untrue. Vaccines are effective and have been shown to decrease infection and serious illness rates.
You think you’re fighting misinformation, but GP could be right in terms of T cell response.
However, vaccination induces a slightly different immune response compared to natural infection [2][3] . These differences may account for variation in effectiveness between vaccine-induced and naturally acquired immunity.
[1] Rapid induction of antigen-specific CD4+ T cells is associated with coordinated humoral and cellular immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(21)00308-3
[2] Antibodies elicited by mRNA-1273 vaccination bind more broadly to the receptor binding domain than do those from SARS-CoV-2 infection https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34103407/
[3] mRNA vaccination compared to infection elicits an IgG-predominant response with greater SARS-CoV-2 specificity and similar decrease in variant spike recognition https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/04/07/202...