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A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

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Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#161

Post by paraph1n »

Manuel_D wrote: post #86
paraph1n wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure if you read the article, but both you and the redditor you are describing fit archetypes explicitly called out by the author.

Which one? "Partial Deniers" I guess? I think that's the overwhelming majority of people, those that recognize that emerging problems exist but do not predict they will cause a global collapse of society. Although it's often difficult to judge, exactly, since collapse evangelists tend to be rather evasive and ambiguous about what exactly will trigger the collapse.

You fit partial denier, yes. The redditor you're describing would certainly fit into "post-collapsists" given that they are preparing for the collapse in order to minimize post-collapse consequences.

I would say that most upper-middle-class+ educated westerners fit into the "partial denier" archetype, yes. It's in human nature to deny something bad is happening until its too late, and sometimes even then (see, eg. global warming, COVID-19, etc).

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#162

Post by KozmoNau7 »

mbrodersen wrote: post #155
Manuel_D wrote: post #69

I once encountered a reddit user vocally insisting in a regional subreddit that industrialized society would collapse in the next 10-20 years. I poked around his comment history and it was non-stop commenting in /r/collapse pondering the kind of collapse that would happen, theories as to what would trigger it, and plans for how they would somehow survive and turn it into a utopian society for themselves. Like 9 month…

Completely agree. It is actually very hard to collapse a modern Western society. It is too large, too complex, and have millions of people working to stabilise/fix problems.

Probably, it'll be more like the fall of the Roman empire; a slow gradual process of increasing instability, culminating not in utter chaos, anarchy and apocalypse, but in finding a new (temporary) period of some stability.

It's probably going to be a decrease in quality of life for many people, but certainly not a cavemen fighting with sticks situation, and the bunker survivors gloriously emerging to rule the wasteland as kings, as some preppers seem to believe.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#163

Post by j8hn »

cratermoon wrote: post #12
margalabargala wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What spike in crime? All data I've seen has shown marked, consistent decreases in crime. Could you link the data you refer to?

> What spike in crime? Well, see, that's the subtle part. Is there really a crisis-level crime wave (in the US)? There was a sharp decrease in crime in the initial months after lockdowns went into affect, but a spike in gun purchases. As such, homicides, which in the US are overwhelmingly committed with guns, are definitely up. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/30/us-crime-rat... But it's not anywhere near…

The next mayor of NYC, Eric Adams, ran and won on a pro-police platform. He won in one the most diverse cities in the US, with the diverse bloc (his highest voter support was in majority black and hispanic neighborhoods) carrying him to victory. I wouldn't say this group is the law and order reactionaries you mentioned. Also, he is bringing back past policies that were labeled as racist. Why do you think he won with such a platform?

Here are some of those issues.

- Bringing back the plainclothes police unit that was famously disbanded last summer.

- Deploy more police to poor neighborhoods.

- Bring back a variation of stop and frisk (stop, ask questions and frisk).

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#164

Post by gspr »

papito wrote: post #118
gspr wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it ironic to be building doomsday bunkers in the society most likely to be one of the last to fold? It seems like exactly the place to build one, if one were looking to.

It's ironic because these people have no problem shitting where they eat, moving on to a place that has not been defiled yet but their riches and absolute lack of moral compass. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/feb/15/why-silicon-val... Supplemental reading: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/donald-trump...

Sure. It's disgusting. But it's not ironic.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#165

Post by dang »

cratermoon wrote: post #52
Telemakhos wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's some data from Chicago: https://home.chicagopolice.org/wp-content/uploads/1_PDFsam_D... Murder in particular is way up.

Nice cherry. Where'd you pick it? Oh, the police say that violent crime is up and we need more policing? Whodathunkit.

Please do not post in the flamewar style to HN. If you have a substantive point, make it thoughtfully; if not, please don't comment until you do.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#166

Post by ben_w »

inglor_cz wrote: post #158
ben_w wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re discussing a very different thing to the parent and grandparent comments. Yes, by the standard that counts the end of the Roman Empire as a collapse, any given nation or union of nations may still collapse and those within may starve or migrate; this still won’t look like any of the post-apocalyptic narratives that represent the loudest and most obvious examples of this topic. I expect that, much like…

The city of Rome went from 1 million people to 20-30 thousand. Literally 97-98 % shrinkage. If the same happened to New York, with the subway abandoned, whole neighbourhoods overgrown by poison ivy and the skyscrapers collapsing from lack of maintenance, "post-apocalyptic" would probably be a fitting word. I am not sure how you can call such a massive loss of complexity and population something else than a collapse.

My understanding is the population estimate for 300 AD was ~1 million, declining to ~800k in 400 AD, ~500k in 450 AD and down to ~100k in 500 AD.

It’s the timescale that makes it. I’m thinking Methyr Tydfel in the UK as a point of reference for similar fractional change in the first roughly century of decline, but peaking in the Industrial Age.

If this happened in NYC, I’d expect (say) Queens to turn to rubble while (say) Manhattan is getting freshly built skyscrapers. Plucky adventurers with assault rifles and bows looting tinned food from a suddenly abandoned Whole Foods is more of what I expect during hurricanes than as a standard result everywhere all at one.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#167

Post by inglor_cz »

ben_w wrote: post #166
inglor_cz wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The city of Rome went from 1 million people to 20-30 thousand. Literally 97-98 % shrinkage. If the same happened to New York, with the subway abandoned, whole neighbourhoods overgrown by poison ivy and the skyscrapers collapsing from lack of maintenance, "post-apocalyptic" would probably be a fitting word. I am not sure how you can call such a massive loss of complexity and population something else than a collapse.

My understanding is the population estimate for 300 AD was ~1 million, declining to ~800k in 400 AD, ~500k in 450 AD and down to ~100k in 500 AD. It’s the timescale that makes it. I’m thinking Methyr Tydfel in the UK as a point of reference for similar fractional change in the first roughly century of decline, but peaking in the Industrial Age. If this happened in NYC, I’d expect (say) Queens to turn to rubble while…

I think the bottom was reached around 800 AD with 20-50k people in entire Rome. Admittedly, it is not easy to estimate population development in a city like Rome that has been built several times over and people still live above the ruins. It must nevertheless been quite obvious to the early medieval inhabitants of Rome that the city used to be far bigger, far more populous and far richer.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#168

Post by benjarrell »

KozmoNau7 wrote: post #162
mbrodersen wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely agree. It is actually very hard to collapse a modern Western society. It is too large, too complex, and have millions of people working to stabilise/fix problems.

Probably, it'll be more like the fall of the Roman empire; a slow gradual process of increasing instability, culminating not in utter chaos, anarchy and apocalypse, but in finding a new (temporary) period of some stability. It's probably going to be a decrease in quality of life for many people, but certainly not a cavemen fighting with sticks situation, and the bunker survivors gloriously emerging to rule the wastel…

This is the way the world ends

This is the way the world ends

This is the way the world ends

Not with a bang but a whimper.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#169

Post by thyrsus »

Manuel_D wrote: post #74
skillpass wrote: post #66

Personally I feel like the Collapse movement is full of histrionics and hysteria, and for a while I was ignoring it. But the movement seems to have a psychological pull. Most of the people I talk to in the US who are tuned into the news cycle or culture war on both the right and the left have started to accept parts of the Collapse narrative (rampant crime leading to breakdown of social order, climate change induced…

I think the allure is escapism: life is boring and unfulfilling for many people, so they are attracted to the notion that some spectacular event is going to suddenly upend their lives and make life more interesting. One of the other patterns I see is justification of apathy. People rationalize lack of desire to work or apply themselves with the justification that the world is going to end relatively soon, so why both…

There's also the "benefit" that if the future doesn't resemble the present, you don't have to make mundane preparations for it, like contributing to a 401k (since dollars will be useless), to say nothing of promoting beneficial government efforts (like social security or health care).

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#170

Post by thyrsus »

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #77
skillpass wrote: post #66

Personally I feel like the Collapse movement is full of histrionics and hysteria, and for a while I was ignoring it. But the movement seems to have a psychological pull. Most of the people I talk to in the US who are tuned into the news cycle or culture war on both the right and the left have started to accept parts of the Collapse narrative (rampant crime leading to breakdown of social order, climate change induced…

The era of Mutually Assured Destruction inspired tons of post-nuclear-fallout fiction. I'm pretty sure Collapse is just the modern version of the same thing.

That era didn't end, we just became inured.
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