A Compass for the Politics of Collapse • Hacker News Board

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#91

Post by Apocryphon » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 6:48 PM UTC

Manuel_D wrote: post #88

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've always found Collapse believers to be composed of mostly people from highly developed Western nations. From what I've read online, many of these folks cannot visualize a world where their society/nation may backslide in a couple aspects (e.g. government corruption or infrastructure standards), but still continue to function mostly normally. Most of these folks have never seen rampant political corruption, low hy…

I think the only real instance of a widespread collapse of civilization was the Late Bronze Age collapse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse This entailed most urban centers in the Eastern mediterranean (besides Egypt and Mesopotamia) being violently destroyed, and writing completely disappearing in large regions. And all this happening over the course of maybe 50-100 years. Arguments can be made…

What about the sudden abandonment of cities in Mesoamerica at different periods?

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#92

Post by Karrot_Kream » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 6:48 PM UTC

Manuel_D wrote: post #88

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've always found Collapse believers to be composed of mostly people from highly developed Western nations. From what I've read online, many of these folks cannot visualize a world where their society/nation may backslide in a couple aspects (e.g. government corruption or infrastructure standards), but still continue to function mostly normally. Most of these folks have never seen rampant political corruption, low hy…

I think the only real instance of a widespread collapse of civilization was the Late Bronze Age collapse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse This entailed most urban centers in the Eastern mediterranean (besides Egypt and Mesopotamia) being violently destroyed, and writing completely disappearing in large regions. And all this happening over the course of maybe 50-100 years. Arguments can be made…

Agreed. I didn't talk about the Late Bronze Age collapse because it's still very much an ongoing topic of research, but I definitely agree. You can also draw similar parallels to the transition between the Heian court period in Japan to the Sengoku Warring States eras as well, as far as the collapse/change dichotomy is concerned.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#93

Post by Karrot_Kream » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 6:50 PM UTC

Apocryphon wrote: post #91

Manuel_D wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the only real instance of a widespread collapse of civilization was the Late Bronze Age collapse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse This entailed most urban centers in the Eastern mediterranean (besides Egypt and Mesopotamia) being violently destroyed, and writing completely disappearing in large regions. And all this happening over the course of maybe 50-100 years. Arguments can be made…

What about the sudden abandonment of cities in Mesoamerica at different periods?

That states fell is not disputed. States and civilizations fell all the time in the Ancient world. This is distinct from the narrative that humanity as a whole would collapse simultaneously. As the parent comment says, the Late Bronze Age collapse is the closest we have to a simultaneous civilization ending event as we know in modern history, and it is very much under active research.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#94

Post by equality_1138 » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 6:53 PM UTC

NationalPark wrote: post #68

tharne wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The biggest challenge in climate change (for example) is that it's simply happening on too long a timescale for the average person to pay much attention to it. I disagree. This may be a problem, but I think the bigger problem is one that was described in a post on HN a few weeks back. Namely, that most of the folks advocating for action and sacrifice on climate change are themselves unwilling to lead by example, e.…

Anyone even vaguely familiar with the science understands that we need to cut emissions on a wide scale, and that air travel by a few hundred politicians is a meaninglessly small fraction of the actual problem. This is essentially a bad faith attack on the few people in congress trying to do something about climate change. Where is your ire for the dozens of Republican congressmen who don't believe climate change is…

Many would say our political economy is built on insatiable consumption, and is therefore incapable of cutting emissions to such a scale to materially impact climate change. It makes no sense to blame 'Republicans' and/or 'Christians' for not trusting every proposed solution to these massively complex problems.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#95

Post by Karrot_Kream » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 6:54 PM UTC

nemo44x wrote: post #87

Manuel_D wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the allure is escapism: life is boring and unfulfilling for many people, so they are attracted to the notion that some spectacular event is going to suddenly upend their lives and make life more interesting. One of the other patterns I see is justification of apathy. People rationalize lack of desire to work or apply themselves with the justification that the world is going to end relatively soon, so why both…

> life is boring and unfulfilling for many people, so they are attracted to the notion that some spectacular event is going to suddenly upend their lives and make life more interesting Mainly agree. As I was watching the Taliban take over region by region I wondered how many people were watching it in their comfortable home with nice things and climate control and couldn't help but feel envy in that these people (Tal…

If you feel this way, I encourage you to go volunteer in one of the many poverty and conflict-stricken regions of this world. The US Peace Corps does a lot of this kind of work. It's needed and fulfilling work.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#96

Post by tharne » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 6:54 PM UTC

mden wrote: post #64

tharne wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The biggest challenge in climate change (for example) is that it's simply happening on too long a timescale for the average person to pay much attention to it. I disagree. This may be a problem, but I think the bigger problem is one that was described in a post on HN a few weeks back. Namely, that most of the folks advocating for action and sacrifice on climate change are themselves unwilling to lead by example, e.…

I don't buy into the argument that if those people limited their travel and consumption then all of the sudden the non-believers will start believing. There's just no evidence that's an effective way to have societal impact. Not an exact parallel but just because people talk about wanting higher overall taxes and at the same time don't want to pay more than what is required doesn't mean they are hypocritical and it d…

> I don't buy into the argument that if those people limited their travel and consumption then all of the sudden the non-believers will start believing.

Maybe it would convince folks, maybe it wouldn't, but you'd have a chance. By contrast, any effort that involves "Do as I say, not as I do", is pretty much guaranteed to fail, and rightfully so. Trying to force others to do something that you yourself are unwilling to do voluntarily is the exact opposite of leadership.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#97

Post by michaelpb » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 6:58 PM UTC

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #57

ivraatiems wrote: post #23

This is a Very Online taxonomy; I don't think it incorporates the vast majority of normal, not particularly Online people who are aware of these problems but aren't spending most of their energy on them. The vast majority of people are fundamentally outside of this taxonomy because even if they are thinking about ideas related to "collapse", it's as a problem someone else is going to solve for them. The biggest chall…

I've always found Collapse believers to be composed of mostly people from highly developed Western nations. From what I've read online, many of these folks cannot visualize a world where their society/nation may backslide in a couple aspects (e.g. government corruption or infrastructure standards), but still continue to function mostly normally. Most of these folks have never seen rampant political corruption, low hy…

> Even the historic concept of "collapse" is ill-defined. It's widely accepted today that the Western Roman Empire (probably the most written-about "collapse" event) didn't really collapse at once as much as it slowly changed from within and without. Is this "linear collapse"? I mean maybe, but it may just be the process of change itself.

I love to point out how the symbolism of many modern governments is the result of a sort of cargo cult of Roman Republican culture. Government buildings to this day copy the dull gray ruins of Roman buildings, just as many 18th/19th century governments declared popular authority from a Latin-imitating "Senate", filled to the brim with Roman symbolism.

With that in mind, it's not surprising that many today believe the 18th/19th century's "fall of Rome" and "barbarian invasion" myths as a sort of predictive weak-spot of modernity. If you view civilization as a linear path, a story of how the intrinsically superior empires of the Greek/Macedonians and Romans successively lifted the world out of its natural, primitive barbarian state, and the shifting power centers of the 3rd-8th century as a "turning back of time to the Dark Ages" or linear regression along the same path, then the "collapse" narrative is as plain as day. This view on history is pure fantasy, of course, which is why the collapse narratives set in modern days seem so fantastic as well.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#98

Post by nemo44x » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 7:02 PM UTC

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #95

nemo44x wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> life is boring and unfulfilling for many people, so they are attracted to the notion that some spectacular event is going to suddenly upend their lives and make life more interesting Mainly agree. As I was watching the Taliban take over region by region I wondered how many people were watching it in their comfortable home with nice things and climate control and couldn't help but feel envy in that these people (Tal…

If you feel this way, I encourage you to go volunteer in one of the many poverty and conflict-stricken regions of this world. The US Peace Corps does a lot of this kind of work. It's needed and fulfilling work.

Would love to in another life, but have too many responsibilities and obligations (e.g. things I love and cherish) here to do anything like that in good faith at this point. I have a friend who did when he was young (probably best time to do these types of things) and it's a thing that has a lot of meaning to him to this day and rightfully so I imagine.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#99

Post by scottrogowski » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 7:03 PM UTC

ivraatiems wrote: post #23

This is a Very Online taxonomy; I don't think it incorporates the vast majority of normal, not particularly Online people who are aware of these problems but aren't spending most of their energy on them. The vast majority of people are fundamentally outside of this taxonomy because even if they are thinking about ideas related to "collapse", it's as a problem someone else is going to solve for them. The biggest chall…

Yes. This is a "Very Online taxonomy".

While I think it's useful to think about mechanisms of collapse, the author seems to have a clear bias towards the belief that collapse will happen which feels very non-objective.

In my experience, the vast majority of people I interact with (maybe 90%+) fall into the author's categorization of "radical denier" or "partial denier".

I don't think there's anything "radical" about the belief that while things will change, society will go on. But calling the belief radical and suggesting that this is a belief only shared by Very Evil People (e.g. Koch Brothers) is a disingenuous straw man.

For the record, if I had to put myself into this unscientific taxonomy, I might be somewhere between a technological and economic optimist.

Re: A Compass for the Politics of Collapse

#100

Post by wilburTheDog » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 7:03 PM UTC

  I think, no matter how hard you try, you can't produce something like this without it being biased toward your own opinions on the topic.  And those of us with different opinions would phrase things differently.  I suppose I would fit in his Pessimist/Defeatist category, though I wouldn't call it that.  (And I guess deniers wouldn't call themselves deniers either.)  I would probably refer to my own take on collapse as depressive realism rooted in observations of climate change.  As one observation, take the latest IPCC report.

  U.N. Secretary-General, António Guterres described the latest IPCC report as "a code red for humanity." "The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk," Guterres said. [1]

  The more you look the worse it gets.  We aren't going to be able to reduce atmospheric CO2 without some sort of drastic uncomfortable change.  The lockdowns during the pandemic reduced emissions by about 17% at one point.  But despite that, CO2 in the atmosphere continued to increase.  Whatever we do has to be more drastic than the pandemic lockdowns, and permanent, or it will keep getting worse.  I just don't see people being willing to go along with that, especially those of us in comfortable Western societies.  I don't know, is that pessimism, defeatism, or realism?

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/09/ipcc-report-un-climate-repor...