Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich?

#71

Post by skinkestek » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 12:17 PM UTC

tommiegannert wrote: post #52

tamaharbor wrote: post #46

For every transaction, there is typically a winner and a loser. The winners brag, and the losers keep quiet.

In sales, you're looking for a (perceived) win-win situation. In that situation, both sides get to brag about their good deal. One of them perhaps later regrets their decision, but they won't send a press release about that. And so we hear two positive stories, and no negative.

Often it is actual win-win:

- Customer pays me, I solve their problem.

Sometimes it is a bit more nuanced:

- We sell the customer a better solution, they get a better (and less expensive) solution, but their previous supplier end up losing business.

I can live happily with both these scenarios.

Re: Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich?

#72

Post by raydalio0705 » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 12:50 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #47

ceilingcorner wrote: post #3

If it is any consolation, we will probably experience massive inflation in the next 20-30 years. Those with primarily financial (and not physical) assets will be hardest hit. At some point the economic wizardry will hit the fan. But on a less depressing note, I suggest paying less attention to the areas where people are “getting rich.” Money isn’t the measure of true value and you will rarely find a correlation betwe…

Predicting high inflation while interest rates are low seems crazy to me. The Fed can and will raise interest rates, causing inflation to moderate. High interest rates will devastate parts of the economy, but that's a different and more well known problem.

Can the Fed raise interest rates significantly without bankrupting the Federal government?

The Federal debt needs to be rolled over every now and then. At certain interest rates, the costs of servicing the debt become unacceptably high. Where is that 'breaking point'? If you see some serious analysis of this, please let me know.

But there is a higher bound to which the Fed can feasibly raise interest rates. So it is possible that the Fed will be forced to choose between keeping rates low, keep buying Treasuries and destroy the dollar through runaway inflation, or raise interest rates and bankrupt the US government.

Re: Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich?

#73

Post by raydalio0705 » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 12:57 PM UTC

thebrowncat wrote: post #33

ceilingcorner wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I originally wrote 5-10 but didn’t want to seem too ominous. But yeah, I’d bet on some serious issues in the latter end of the 2020s.

I was banking on it happening in the next year or so. If it’s not going to happen until 5 or 10 years then it seems like not joining in with the fools now and investing in FAANG stock / bitcoin means you’ll miss out on massive gains in the interim...

It is difficult to go wrong if you invest in businesses that are providing real value to people and trade at attractive valuations. It is unlikely to make you wealthy, but it is unlikely to make you poor either.

The problem with 'joining in with the fools' is that it relies on the 'greater fool theory' to make superior returns. And you could well end up being the 'greater fool'.

Re: Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich?

#74

Post by meiraleal » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 1:23 PM UTC

You become rich too? It is not that difficult nowadays, if you are above average intellectually, to make a very comfortable life. If most of the examples are doing it by fair opportunities and/or hard work, why can't you too? You can feel discouraged or encouraged by the opportunities.

Re: Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich?

#75

Post by meiraleal » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 1:30 PM UTC

DoreenMichele wrote: post #11

antasvara wrote: post #10

You're experiencing a classic case of selection bias. You're much more likely to hear about the person that got rich trading crypto rather than the person that lost a lot of money trading crypto.

^ I'm quite open about my poverty. People literally do not want to hear it.

Why would someone *WANT* to hear it? People that care about you might want to hear if it comforts you, but random people? What would it be, an advice? or to give you an advice? (most) people like to hear and share good stories. The bad ones we share with friends at maximum. Because they might really care about it.

Re: Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich?

#76

Post by kingkongjaffa » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 1:34 PM UTC

rmah wrote: post #32

ceilingcorner wrote: post #3

If it is any consolation, we will probably experience massive inflation in the next 20-30 years. Those with primarily financial (and not physical) assets will be hardest hit. At some point the economic wizardry will hit the fan. But on a less depressing note, I suggest paying less attention to the areas where people are “getting rich.” Money isn’t the measure of true value and you will rarely find a correlation betwe…

Two points... First, high inflation is good for holders of some financial assets (e.g. stocks) and bad for others (bonds). It's good for existing borrowers and bad for existing lenders. It's good for those in debt and bad for those who saved cash. Essentially, high inflation punishes financial frugality and rewards financial speculation. Second, massive inflation-caused economic collapse is highly unlikely in any dev…

Maybe someone can explain, but to me it seems there's always been some kind of financial lever to pull to correct during a recession (quantitative easing), I have to wonder will there always be some other mechanism that can be invented(?) to fix things?

When things like national debt far outstrips GDP and everything is hyperleveraged, it seems the way out so far has been to create more.

Re: Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich?

#77

Post by meiraleal » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 1:40 PM UTC

AlexandrB wrote: post #26

orasis wrote: post #9

Focus on building a life that operates from love and abundance rather than fear and lack. Grow your skills so you can be of service to others. These two things will make you most likely to become rich. “Mastery of Love” and “Millionaire Fastlane” are two books I would recommend.

> Focus on building a life that operates from love and abundance rather than fear and lack. No offense, but this kind of "positive thinking as financial advice" is extremely pathological. It not only fails to offer any concrete, actionable advice but implicitly blames the subject if they end up poor: "Ah he's poor, he must have been operating from fear, not love." It positions wealth as a signal of moral virtue, not…

IF you acquire happiness from buying stuff, your natural path is to poverty, right? This "positive thinking as financial advice" is the first and most important thing to have a healthy relationship with money. Learn that spending doesn't make one happy has the intended consequence of making building wealth way easier.

Re: Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich?

#78

Post by meiraleal » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

golemiprague wrote: post #30

Many times the reason we are jealous is not because of other people luck but rather because we don't live up to our full potential. Try to focus on things you can control and to improve yourself, put on some muscle, dress nicely, do some cheap activities you enjoy, whether it is some specific hobby or if you don't have one do stuff anyways just for the sake of increasing your social interactions. Those things will im…

The funny side of HN: the best reply is killed if it says you can do better for yourself.

Re: Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich?

#79

Post by giantg2 » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 1:52 PM UTC

foobarbaz33 wrote: post #49

hdjjhhvvhga wrote: post #20

It is not true, you see it because people like to brag. But they prefer to hide their problems, sometimes very deep. The society discourages talking about these things unless you are close friends. Whereas positive aspects are amplified. I give you an example. I have a couple of friends with two kids. They have an amazing FB/Instagram feed. You immediately see a wonderful model family living in a beautiful house, tra…

I know a couple similar to this. Social media with rich vacations, fancy drinks, posting the new cars they bought. BMW one day. SUV the next. Reality is they have a very low income. With a double mortgage on their house. And blew through an inheritance. Have trouble keeping up with repairs, roof, etc. With an uncertain financial future, they are always in a state of worry.

"With an uncertain financial future, they are always in a state of worry."

To be fair, I have a job and I'm cheap. I still have these concerns.

Re: Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich?

#80

Post by roland35 » Mon, Aug 30, 2021, 1:58 PM UTC

imtringued wrote: post #54

ceilingcorner wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not basing my prediction on the doomsayers, more on general decline of the Western world overall. There are too many issues piling up and to my mind, this will eventually cause some serious economic problems. But I’m not an economist, so I don’t take my word for it. My broader point is simply that the rich today are succeeding in a system which might not be stable in a few decades.

>There are too many issues piling up and to my mind, this will eventually cause some serious economic problems. But I’m not an economist, so I don’t take my word for it. It's the opposite. There half a dozen extremely serious economic problems at the root of the system that were papered over during the WW2 rebuilding of the economy (because growth is easy if you start from nothing) and all the things you worry about…

So the question to me boils down to - what to do about it? We could easily have another decade (or 2 or 3) of economic growth before the next crash. The hard part isn't predicting the crash, it is predicting when it will happen.

The best plan as far as I can tell is to be diversified in investments. A home + mortgage protects against inflation, a reasonable mix of stocks and bonds are solid financial investments, enough cash for a good emergency fund, and holding a small % of hard assets and crypto is not a bad idea.

In short, "nobody knows nothing" and we can just invest a little in everything and hope for the best :)