Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous

#61

Post by mdorazio » Sun, Aug 29, 2021, 11:13 PM UTC

dev_tty01 wrote: post #31

hammock wrote: post #16

>It is this weighing of risks and benefits, in all their many facets, that informs the chorus of health-care professionals imploring their families, neighbors, co-workers, and friends, along with everyone else, to please get vaccinated against covid-19. They urge vaccination because they see its ratio of risks to benefits as incredibly, unbelievably good. For someone who has already had Covid and recovered, there is…

Not true. Vaccinated and previously infected people are much less likely to be reinfected than unvaccinated previously infected. Here is a recent study: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0806-vaccination-pr... Reinfection was twice as likely among unvaccinated previously infected. The more recent data includes the effects of the delta variant. So, the risk of Covid is much higher and the risk of adverse effect…

That CDC report is very careful to word its abstract to hide that the findings are from a very small group of people (a whopping 50 fully vaccinated) without even mentioning overall immunity levels across the general population. I'm not arguing that vaccine + natural antibodies aren't more effective - they are - but you're going to have to do a lot better than that to justify wanting to vaccinate everyone who's already been infected despite the known risks [1].

[1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.29.21250653v...

Re: Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous

#62

Post by mdp2021 » Sun, Aug 29, 2021, 11:15 PM UTC

spats1990 wrote: post #34

spinach wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the very first paragraph, the doctor gives a reason why people aren't getting vaccinated, and it's because they've heard of bad outcomes and are simply avoiding something they know to be a potential immediate risk. That is not irrational thinking. "I often ask them why, after the devastation we’ve seen this year, they’ve chosen not to get vaccinated. Sometimes their answers are weird or conspiratorial. But most pe…

It can be considered irrational thinking given the scientifically documented rarity of adverse reactions to the vaccines thus far. It is lottery-ticket thinking but with a negative outcome imagined in place of a positive one. Just like with lottery tickets, you have to be in to win. But it is overwhelmingly unlikely that you will win, and it is overwhelmingly unlikely you will have an adverse reaction to the vaccine.…

Could you please expand on the «scientifically documented rarity»? Do you have specific data in mind?

I have little. The best I have is

Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine ... for the C4591001 Clinical Trial Group

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577

«The incidence of serious adverse events was similar in the vaccine and placebo groups (0.6% and 0.5%, respectively). // This trial and its preliminary report have several limitations. With approximately 19,000 participants per group in the subset of participants with a median follow-up time of 2 months after the second dose, the study has more than 83% probability of detecting at least one adverse event, if the true incidence is 0.01%, but it is not large enough to detect less common adverse events reliably»

For the rest, I hoped to find active monitoring for severe adverse events, but I found only passive monitoring.

Re: Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous

#63

Post by honkycat » Sun, Aug 29, 2021, 11:16 PM UTC

vldmit wrote: post #28

You can't persuade skeptics by not addressing (simply omitting) some most important concerns, namely: - Role of age, fitness and comorbidities in risk/benefit analysis - Lack of trust in institutions (suppression of alternative views; capture/corruption) Another question is who New Yorker can reach, I won't be surprised that ~95% of their audience are already vaccinated. And remaining 5% holdouts are well-informed an…

"Skeptics" is a very generous portrayal of the anti-vax crowd.

They are not skeptics. Their opposition is not based on missing information, it is based on conforming to an ideology. Which is diametrically opposed to skepticism.

Re: Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous

#64

Post by mdorazio » Sun, Aug 29, 2021, 11:17 PM UTC

honkycat wrote: post #56

hammock wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>risk of Covid is much higher and the risk of adverse effects are approximately zero for getting the vaccine. Where is your data for this? What is the risk of a naturally immune person catching Covid, and being either a)symptomatic, b)hospitalized, or c)killed? How does this risk compare to the risk of a serious adverse event or long-term consequence such as autoimmune disease from the vaccine in a healthy young man?

> How does this risk compare to the risk of a serious adverse event or long-term consequence such as autoimmune disease from the vaccine in a healthy young man? Where is your data that serious adverse effects are even possible beyond an absurdly tiny statistic? And how does that compare to the risk of a break-through re-infection and the well documented long-term health issues people have developed with Covid? Don't…

See [1]. I'm sure you'll redefine "serious" however you want to try and retain your point. Which is, of course, childish as you say. Your comment here is disappointing. I'd expect you to actually do some research on your own before posting like this and making inflammatory statements.

[1] https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vaccine-after-effects-more-co...

Re: Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous

#65

Post by honkycat » Sun, Aug 29, 2021, 11:20 PM UTC

mdorazio wrote: post #64

honkycat wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How does this risk compare to the risk of a serious adverse event or long-term consequence such as autoimmune disease from the vaccine in a healthy young man? Where is your data that serious adverse effects are even possible beyond an absurdly tiny statistic? And how does that compare to the risk of a break-through re-infection and the well documented long-term health issues people have developed with Covid? Don't…

See [1]. I'm sure you'll redefine "serious" however you want to try and retain your point. Which is, of course, childish as you say. Your comment here is disappointing. I'd expect you to actually do some research on your own before posting like this and making inflammatory statements. [1] https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vaccine-after-effects-more-co...

The paper you cite describes them as mild. "...COVID-19 infection are almost twice as likely to experience one or more MILD whole body..."

So if I am taking the paper you cite as gospel, I would say they are mild as described. I think perhaps you are the one who needs to do a closer reading.

Re: Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous

#66

Post by Aachen » Sun, Aug 29, 2021, 11:21 PM UTC

ashtonkem wrote: post #53

Aachen wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One can always find extreme examples in the media (or online, if only enough people read this one of them will know someone). What percentage of the people not yet vaccinated is actually that kind of crazy?

Enough to be the majority of the calls to poison control.

Why does nobody ever reply with numbers while making claims that it's so obvious. Maybe I'm not American enough here in Europe but to me this isn't self-evident and unless my family suddenly turns anti vax (bit late for that now) it won't be so I'm going to need numbers to understand how big this is. How even would I know how many poison control calls there are in the first place? I know roughly you have like 30% (give or take 10%.) unvaccinated and some 320 million people there, so you'd need some 5 million calls to poison control before you're at a majority if only 10% actually gets poisoned from what they take and call poison control. Typing this out, there's like a dozen unknowns here (like how many people overdose, how many call this specific agency, etc.) so it seems like an extremely poor proxy anyway, but if you're still game, please enlighten me with the real number of calls to poison control. 5M is the number to beat.

Edit: as one data point, the only person I know that doesn't want the vaccine is worried about fertility. They had covid 5 months ago and are currently having long covid, so they're not entirely unprotected even if imo it's still solidly anti-vax to refuse a recommended booster dose. So they're not trusting the official stuff, and most definitely they'll not be taking random garbage that's supposed to kill animals. That's insanity, so I can't believe the majority of those left unvaxxinated in your country is that sort out crazy. It makes no sense, the furthest thing from self-evident.

Re: Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous

#67

Post by mdorazio » Sun, Aug 29, 2021, 11:23 PM UTC

dev_tty01 wrote: post #55

hammock wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>risk of Covid is much higher and the risk of adverse effects are approximately zero for getting the vaccine. Where is your data for this? What is the risk of a naturally immune person catching Covid, and being either a)symptomatic, b)hospitalized, or c)killed? How does this risk compare to the risk of a serious adverse event or long-term consequence such as autoimmune disease from the vaccine in a healthy young man?

You asserted that there was no benefit to getting the vaccine for previously infected. I pointed you to a reference that shows that that is not true. The original article to which we are all responding pointed out the minuscule levels of risk associated with getting the vaccine. With respect to autoimmune disease, I think we are seeing that long covid is becoming a significant health concern among even healthy young…

I would like to point out that long-term effects are a possible outcome in many types of flu, not just covid ex. [1][2]. Given the combination of relatively short timeframe for covid studies, the unknown complications of living in lockdowns, and the general "don't care" attitude toward these effects in previous flus, the whole "Long Covid" story at least seems rather overblown.

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-17497-6

[2] https://www.labmate-online.com/news/chromatography/1/breakin...

Re: Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous

#68

Post by CozyBearNotSoy » Sun, Aug 29, 2021, 11:26 PM UTC

honkycat wrote: post #63

vldmit wrote: post #28

You can't persuade skeptics by not addressing (simply omitting) some most important concerns, namely: - Role of age, fitness and comorbidities in risk/benefit analysis - Lack of trust in institutions (suppression of alternative views; capture/corruption) Another question is who New Yorker can reach, I won't be surprised that ~95% of their audience are already vaccinated. And remaining 5% holdouts are well-informed an…

"Skeptics" is a very generous portrayal of the anti-vax crowd. They are not skeptics. Their opposition is not based on missing information, it is based on conforming to an ideology. Which is diametrically opposed to skepticism.

People of all classes, religions, races, and political affiliations are among those who don't want to be injected. Men and women, young and old. Knowing this would require you to talk to people out in the real world in such a way that they think they can trust you, since most are terrified to speak up. It is hard to do this unless you are sincerely one of them. What you see on TV or YouTube isn't representative of the actual population.

Re: Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous

#69

Post by jsnell » Sun, Aug 29, 2021, 11:28 PM UTC

hammock wrote: post #35

dev_tty01 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not true. Vaccinated and previously infected people are much less likely to be reinfected than unvaccinated previously infected. Here is a recent study: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0806-vaccination-pr... Reinfection was twice as likely among unvaccinated previously infected. The more recent data includes the effects of the delta variant. So, the risk of Covid is much higher and the risk of adverse effect…

>risk of Covid is much higher and the risk of adverse effects are approximately zero for getting the vaccine. Where is your data for this? What is the risk of a naturally immune person catching Covid, and being either a)symptomatic, b)hospitalized, or c)killed? How does this risk compare to the risk of a serious adverse event or long-term consequence such as autoimmune disease from the vaccine in a healthy young man?

We've given literally billions of vaccine doses at this point. The post-vaccination tracking has been able to pick up side-effects affecting 1/100k patients. Those side-effects have also been made public by the relevant authorities immediately when concerns were raised. This tracking has not produced any kind of evidence for auto-immune disease for the mRNA vaccines.

And no, it cannot be that the side-effects you're worried about haven't happened yet. If they happened, they'd happen within weeks of the vaccination.

Look, the position that you don't think the risk-reward ratio is good enough for somebody who has recovered is pretty reasonable. But for some reason you're not satisfied with that, and are instead making factually incorrect statements both about the benefits and the risks. That makes it pretty hard to believe you're actually making that argument in good faith.

Re: Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous

#70

Post by ashtonkem » Sun, Aug 29, 2021, 11:28 PM UTC

Aachen wrote: post #66

ashtonkem wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Enough to be the majority of the calls to poison control.

Why does nobody ever reply with numbers while making claims that it's so obvious. Maybe I'm not American enough here in Europe but to me this isn't self-evident and unless my family suddenly turns anti vax (bit late for that now) it won't be so I'm going to need numbers to understand how big this is. How even would I know how many poison control calls there are in the first place? I know roughly you have like 30% (gi…

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news4jax.com/health/2021/08...

Honestly, I think the issue here is that you’re not American, so you don’t understand the current situation here. Vaccines have been free and readily available for a long time, and those who are holding out have an unusually high percentage of cray in them. Last I checked, polling indicated that about half of the people unvaccinated indicated that would never accept the vaccine, as compared to being in more of a “wait and see” mode.

Meanwhile some states are starting to hit their highest death rates ever, and Covid is killing anti-vax politicians and celebrities at a constant rate. If rational arguments persuaded these people, they would have already been vaccinated.