Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots • Hacker News Board

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#81

Post by retrac » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 9:08 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #43

Gibbon1 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well you have two options. Either 1) You force everyone to get tested for Covid. Then vaccinate everyone who tests negative. 2) Or you just vaccinate everyone knowing those that had it will just end up with stronger immunity. Seems like 2 is the cheapest most straightforward option.

Those aren't the only options. It would be unethical to force testing on everyone.

We don't need to. People could be given the option of testing, or of going into isolation for the incubation period. Several countries had great effect from ordering a lockdown and testing the entire population over a day or two, releasing those who are negative from lockdown, and repeating this process multiple times in badly affected areas. Slovakia did this and it seems to have been extremely effective, though obviously not enough to eradicate it: https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4761

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#82

Post by tasty_freeze » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 9:08 PM UTC

muttantt wrote: post #38

I know this is a controversial take, but it should be in our national interest to get young children exposed and gain natural immunity, and avoid giving them the vaccine we have so little long-term data on. According to the CDC, 450 kids (0-18yo) died from Covid-19 since Jan 2020. A total of 4.6M kids tested positive since then. In the much shorter 2017-2018 Flu season, ~650 kids (0-17) died. We really have to keep t…

As a counter point, in the 2017-2018 flu season, there were no protective measure taken. In 2020, the majority of people, especially in areas of high density, wore masks, reduced travel, washed hands more often, maintained distance, etc.

The number of cases/hospitalizations/deaths from flu in the US were the lowest recorded by far (though complete records don't go back that far). This shows that those protective measures were effective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/faq-flu-season-2020-2021.htm

Comparing childhood covid deaths in 2020/2021 vs flu deaths in 2017/2018 isn't an apples to apples comparison.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#83

Post by muttantt » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 9:08 PM UTC

bitcoinmoney wrote: post #69

muttantt wrote: post #38

I know this is a controversial take, but it should be in our national interest to get young children exposed and gain natural immunity, and avoid giving them the vaccine we have so little long-term data on. According to the CDC, 450 kids (0-18yo) died from Covid-19 since Jan 2020. A total of 4.6M kids tested positive since then. In the much shorter 2017-2018 Flu season, ~650 kids (0-17) died. We really have to keep t…

You wanna volunteer your kids while you’re at it? 165M vaccinated people. The trial participants have been vaccinated for over a year.

My kids had Covid already, honestly it was surprisingly a non issue.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#84

Post by zaik » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 9:09 PM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #53

I want to ask about source material for a minute. What is ThinkCivics? Why is it reasonable second-hand source for analysis of a non-peer reviewed article? Does it have editorial biases? I am asking sincerely. It is a new site to me, and I don't know if it is a trustworthy source of information. The site is also unresponsive at the time I'm writing this.

The text is copied from a website called "The Federalist": https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Federalist_(website)

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#85

Post by anigbrowl » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 9:09 PM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #53

I want to ask about source material for a minute. What is ThinkCivics? Why is it reasonable second-hand source for analysis of a non-peer reviewed article? Does it have editorial biases? I am asking sincerely. It is a new site to me, and I don't know if it is a trustworthy source of information. The site is also unresponsive at the time I'm writing this.

A look at the front page suggests it's a right-wing news aggregator rather than producing any original content of its own.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#86

Post by ithkuil » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 9:09 PM UTC

throwawaylinux wrote: post #33

tomesch1982 wrote: post #8

Sounds a bit like survivor bias. People who have already recovered once (and not died) are more likely to recover a second time (and not die). In the control group, people who have never had the virus, some have a harder time with it. I hope this gets taken into account.

The story talks about the study finding not only reduced risk of hospitalization but also increased risk of breakthrough infection (i.e., getting it a second time). It doesn't mention death or mortality at all as far as I can see. What's the basis for your claim that it's about death rates?

You don't have to be looking for death rates to be affected by survivorship via.

If the pool of people you're studying is people who got it a second time, they cannot have died when they contracted it the first time by definition (i.e you simply cannot die and then continue living and participate in a subsequent study)

That said, you can account for this confounding factor and perhaps the study did account for that (didn't read it). I'm just pointing out that the question cannot be dismissed just by looking at whether death rates are part of the study or not

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#87

Post by muttantt » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 9:09 PM UTC

tasty_freeze wrote: post #82

muttantt wrote: post #38

I know this is a controversial take, but it should be in our national interest to get young children exposed and gain natural immunity, and avoid giving them the vaccine we have so little long-term data on. According to the CDC, 450 kids (0-18yo) died from Covid-19 since Jan 2020. A total of 4.6M kids tested positive since then. In the much shorter 2017-2018 Flu season, ~650 kids (0-17) died. We really have to keep t…

As a counter point, in the 2017-2018 flu season, there were no protective measure taken. In 2020, the majority of people, especially in areas of high density, wore masks, reduced travel, washed hands more often, maintained distance, etc. The number of cases/hospitalizations/deaths from flu in the US were the lowest recorded by far (though complete records don't go back that far). This shows that those protective meas…

The 2017-2018 flu season had a vaccine as protective measure.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#88

Post by didibus » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 9:10 PM UTC

viburnum wrote: post #44

What if you get vaccinated and then get a breakthrough infection? How's your immunity then?

From what I've seen, this is where we seem to have lucked out. In that if you get Covid as a vaccinated person, it will still dramatically reduce your chances of being hospitalized or dying from it.

> August 25, 2021 — The Health Department today released new data on vaccine effectiveness and breakthrough cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Between January 17 and August 7, 2021, 96.1% of COVID-19 cases, 96.9% of COVID-19 hospitalizations, and 97.3% of COVID-19 deaths in New York City were in people who were unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated. Additionally, for the same time period, 0.33% of fully vaccinated New Yorkers have ever been diagnosed with COVID-19, 0.02% have been hospitalized with COVID-19, and 0.003% have died due to complications with COVID-19.

> from August 7, unvaccinated New Yorkers are 3.1 times more likely to get COVID-19 than fully vaccinated New Yorkers. Additionally, unvaccinated New Yorkers are almost 10 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than those who are fully vaccinated

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#89

Post by trhway » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 9:10 PM UTC

teachrdan wrote: post #16

trhway wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Beside that it is of little use, is it? "Get Covid to be better protected from Covid" doesn't make a lot of sense to me, at least. "Get Covid to better protect others from Covid" - Stronger immunity results in less chances to get infected again and less viral spread when infected. Ie. given that existing vaccines don't protect much against infection by delta, and that once infected the vaccinated spread the virus li…

>once infected the vaccinated spread the virus like unvaccinated You are spreading disinformation. Vaccinated people who do get sick are less likely to spread the virus, and have a high viral load in their system for a shorter duration: --- A vaccinated person may have the same viral loads as an unvaccinated person, but that high level of virus lasts only three to four days compared with an unvaccinated person who co…

>Vaccinated people who do get sick are less likely to spread the virus

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v...

"We find no difference in viral loads when comparing unvaccinated individuals to those who have vaccine “breakthrough” infections. "

>that high level of virus lasts only three to four days compared with an unvaccinated person who could be contagious for up to 10 days

may be. Yet it is the first days what matter until one notices that s/he is ill.

And the article you cite has gems like this

>Cases of breakthrough infections among the vaccinated remain rare.

Where is for example in MA - with 65% vaccination rate - out of the 1400 new daily infections the 400+ are breakthrough :

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/mass-has-3098-new...

And there is similar data from highly vaccinated places like UK, Israel, Singapore.

Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots

#90

Post by nradov » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 9:10 PM UTC

hurlathroway wrote: post #56

blueyes wrote: post #9

Does this mean that the ideal path for maximum immunity is to get vaccinated and then get a breakthrough infection?

It sounds like that might be our endgame now. If covid becomes endemic, which may be inevitable, then the only question is whether you want your body to be prepared for its first infection or not. I wonder if this could end up like the 'common cold' coronaviruses, where future generations build up immunity through exposure very early in life, resulting in mild infections in adulthood. That would beg an interesting qu…

Circumstantial evidence indicates that one of the common cold coronaviruses, HCoV-OC43, probably caused a worldwide pandemic in 1889 and killed a lot of people. Symptoms were very similar to COVID-19. Now most of us get infected as children and gain natural immunity which protects us later in life. So long term the same thing will probably happen with SARS-CoV-2, but in the short term we should still use vaccines to save as many lives as possible.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/