Is there any case for offering people a dose of COVID-19 at the peak of their vaccine immunity and scheduled when people can self isolate? It just seems we’re all going to get a variant of COVID at some point before it becomes like another flu that occurs yearly?
Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
41–50 of 159 posts
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#42Sounds a bit like survivor bias. People who have already recovered once (and not died) are more likely to recover a second time (and not die). In the control group, people who have never had the virus, some have a harder time with it. I hope this gets taken into account.
A death rate of .5% is not going to change any of these statistics. They have 99.5% of the data.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#43That's good news for people who have already recovered from Covid. We should definitely take that into account for policies around opening up again, i.e. by treating recovered people like vaccinated people. Beside that it is of little use, is it? "Get Covid to be better protected from Covid" doesn't make a lot of sense to me, at least.
Well you have two options. Either 1) You force everyone to get tested for Covid. Then vaccinate everyone who tests negative. 2) Or you just vaccinate everyone knowing those that had it will just end up with stronger immunity. Seems like 2 is the cheapest most straightforward option.
Those aren't the only options. It would be unethical to force testing on everyone.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#44What if you get vaccinated and then get a breakthrough infection? How's your immunity then?
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#45Sounds a bit like survivor bias. People who have already recovered once (and not died) are more likely to recover a second time (and not die). In the control group, people who have never had the virus, some have a harder time with it. I hope this gets taken into account.
Thankfully quite a small percentage of covid patients die. Certainly not enough for a 16x difference.
It doesn't have to do with the percentage who die, but rather the variation in susceptibility.
If 2% of people are 80% likely to die from COVID, and the rest have a baseline 0.1% risk. Assume prior infection provides no protection:
* 1000 (of whom 20 are particularly vulnerable) people are naturally infected; .001 * 990 =~ 1 people of average susceptibility die; 16 maximally susceptible people die. Total of 17 deaths.
* Then, you are left with 983 people, (of whom 4 are particularly vulnerable). Upon reinfection, .001 * 983 =~ 1 person of average susceptibility dies; 3.2 people of high susceptibility die. There's a total of ~4 deaths.
This is a 4x reduction in deaths even if there's no protection from prior infection.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#46Natural immunity comes with a 10--25x greater risk of death, possibly much higher (see update) by COVID itself . (The risk from the vaccine, without a Covid infection, is effectively nil based on hundreds of millions of doses administered.) Natural immunity comes with a ~9x greater risk of hospitalisation, again from Covid itself. There's effectively no risk from the vaccine, again with hundreds of millions of doses…
It's good as a combination I think. You can get the vaccine to prevent major illness and death, and if you catch Covid as a breakthrough case, you'd be even more strongly immune thereafter, hypothetically.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#47I know this is a controversial take, but it should be in our national interest to get young children exposed and gain natural immunity, and avoid giving them the vaccine we have so little long-term data on. According to the CDC, 450 kids (0-18yo) died from Covid-19 since Jan 2020. A total of 4.6M kids tested positive since then. In the much shorter 2017-2018 Flu season, ~650 kids (0-17) died. We really have to keep t…
We don’t have any long term data on Covid infection either. Why risk children’s lives?
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#48I know this is a controversial take, but it should be in our national interest to get young children exposed and gain natural immunity, and avoid giving them the vaccine we have so little long-term data on. According to the CDC, 450 kids (0-18yo) died from Covid-19 since Jan 2020. A total of 4.6M kids tested positive since then. In the much shorter 2017-2018 Flu season, ~650 kids (0-17) died. We really have to keep t…
Right, but those deaths were in an environment when there were interventions to protect people. Take away those interventions and you have more deaths.
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#49I know this is a controversial take, but it should be in our national interest to get young children exposed and gain natural immunity, and avoid giving them the vaccine we have so little long-term data on. According to the CDC, 450 kids (0-18yo) died from Covid-19 since Jan 2020. A total of 4.6M kids tested positive since then. In the much shorter 2017-2018 Flu season, ~650 kids (0-17) died. We really have to keep t…
We don't know the long term effects of COVID either. How many decades are between chicken pox and shingles?
Re: Israeli Study: Natural Immunity Is 13x Stronger Than Pfizer Covid Shots
#50I know this is a controversial take, but it should be in our national interest to get young children exposed and gain natural immunity, and avoid giving them the vaccine we have so little long-term data on. According to the CDC, 450 kids (0-18yo) died from Covid-19 since Jan 2020. A total of 4.6M kids tested positive since then. In the much shorter 2017-2018 Flu season, ~650 kids (0-17) died. We really have to keep t…
We don’t have any long term data on Covid infection either. Why risk children’s lives?
Because the vaccine is a risk factor on its own as well. Do you not agree with that?