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A Science in the Shadows

washingtonpost.com

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Re: A Science in the Shadows

#21

Post by AntiDyatlov »

bbfjgktmnrnrn wrote: post #18
feral wrote: post #15

The idea that we do gain of function research in urban areas is mind boggling to me. If someone told you they were working on experimental nuclear warheads, you'd think they were crazy if their lab was in a city. But they experiment with dangerous pathogens in cities of millions of people, and the janitors go home to their families every evening. I don't know whether covid escaped from a lab, and I don't know whether…

They were asked about this recently on This Week in Virology, the most important virology podcast. They said that no scientist wants to work in a remote location, they want to have a city social life. Which is why these labs are typically located in million+ cities. They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date started from a lab, and that eventually it will be proven that this pandemic is zoonotic to…

Surely they don't believe the odds of GOF research producing a much more lethal pandemic than the one we're dealing with are 0%. At the same time, nobody ever showed that GOF research has benefits commensurate with the risks.

It would appear the virologists are not trustworthy.

Re: A Science in the Shadows

#22

Post by prox »

booleandilemma wrote: post #13
prox wrote: post #6

I really think there should be a ban on these gain of function research labs. It’s fine to research current strains and potential medications, but that’s where the line should be drawn.

This may just drive the research underground, making it less regulated, and increasing the chances of some kind of disaster.

It’s pretty hard to do this stuff, you need a high level biolab, not many exist afaik.

Re: A Science in the Shadows

#23

Post by feral »

bbfjgktmnrnrn wrote: post #18
feral wrote: post #15

The idea that we do gain of function research in urban areas is mind boggling to me. If someone told you they were working on experimental nuclear warheads, you'd think they were crazy if their lab was in a city. But they experiment with dangerous pathogens in cities of millions of people, and the janitors go home to their families every evening. I don't know whether covid escaped from a lab, and I don't know whether…

They were asked about this recently on This Week in Virology, the most important virology podcast. They said that no scientist wants to work in a remote location, they want to have a city social life. Which is why these labs are typically located in million+ cities. They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date started from a lab, and that eventually it will be proven that this pandemic is zoonotic to…

> They said that no scientist wants to work in a remote location, they want to have a city social life. Which is why these labs are typically located in million+ cities.

Sounds honest, but selfish given how the most recent pandemic took out the 'city social lives' of hundreds of millions of non-virologists. Hard to understand the cost:benefit there.

> They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date started from a lab,

That's got to be the least reassuring safety argument I have ever heard.

>They also said that they do not understand why a year and a half in people keep on talking about this baseless conspiracy theory.

Kills millions directly; massive indirect costs; a year and a half later virologists don't understand that its a problem that we're not certain it didn't come from a lab.

Not an expert, but at these stakes, it makes it sound like there's no adults in charge.

Re: A Science in the Shadows

#24

Post by tzs »

feral wrote: post #23
bbfjgktmnrnrn wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They were asked about this recently on This Week in Virology, the most important virology podcast. They said that no scientist wants to work in a remote location, they want to have a city social life. Which is why these labs are typically located in million+ cities. They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date started from a lab, and that eventually it will be proven that this pandemic is zoonotic to…

> They said that no scientist wants to work in a remote location, they want to have a city social life. Which is why these labs are typically located in million+ cities. Sounds honest, but selfish given how the most recent pandemic took out the 'city social lives' of hundreds of millions of non-virologists. Hard to understand the cost:benefit there. > They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date star…

> Kills millions directly; massive indirect costs; a year and a half later virologists don't understand that its a problem that we're not certain it didn't come from a lab.

It has only been a year and a half. It typically takes several years or even decades to trace a new virus in humans back to its origin.

Re: A Science in the Shadows

#25

Post by Vecr »

prox wrote: post #22
booleandilemma wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This may just drive the research underground, making it less regulated, and increasing the chances of some kind of disaster.

It’s pretty hard to do this stuff, you need a high level biolab, not many exist afaik.

You don't need a high level biolab, a negative pressure tent in your garage and a PAPR respirator would probably work fine. Not exactly super safe, though.

Re: A Science in the Shadows

#26

Post by jasonladuke0311 »

tzs wrote: post #19
andyxor wrote: post #7

It's funny seeing this on WaPo front page. Not long ago mentioning possible artificial source of COVID as a byproduct of gain-of-function research was a "baseless conspiracy theory", and you'd likely be banned for "misinformation" on social media.

Something that later turns out to be true can still be a baseless conspiracy theory if the people that believe it do so for the wrong reasons.

What are “the right reasons”?

Re: A Science in the Shadows

#27

Post by feral »

tzs wrote: post #24
feral wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They said that no scientist wants to work in a remote location, they want to have a city social life. Which is why these labs are typically located in million+ cities. Sounds honest, but selfish given how the most recent pandemic took out the 'city social lives' of hundreds of millions of non-virologists. Hard to understand the cost:benefit there. > They also said that this is safe, because no pandemic to date star…

> Kills millions directly; massive indirect costs; a year and a half later virologists don't understand that its a problem that we're not certain it didn't come from a lab. It has only been a year and a half. It typically takes several years or even decades to trace a new virus in humans back to its origin.

I don't mean we should be sure it couldn't have been a lab escape because we have found the natural origin.

I mean we should be sure it wasn't a lab escape because lab escapes have a prior probability extremely close to zero.

There are lots of smart folk, and intelligence agencies, trying to figure out whether covid is a natural event or a lab leak, and very few analyzes seem to be starting off with "as we all know, because of X, Y, and Z, lab escapes are effectively impossible, and these labs are so well designed that human error never results in accidents, so..."

Re: A Science in the Shadows

#28

Post by srinivgp »

jasonladuke0311 wrote: post #26
tzs wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something that later turns out to be true can still be a baseless conspiracy theory if the people that believe it do so for the wrong reasons.

What are “the right reasons”?

There are many potential right reasons. One wrong reason might be "I heard it from a Facebook group founded to spread the word that GMOs were created to make a pliable citizenry".

Re: A Science in the Shadows

#29

Post by antihipocrat »

srinivgp wrote: post #28
jasonladuke0311 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are “the right reasons”?

There are many potential right reasons. One wrong reason might be "I heard it from a Facebook group founded to spread the word that GMOs were created to make a pliable citizenry".

Isn't that equivalent to an ad hominem fallacy? The truth of a fact or the validity of an argument is independent of the characteristics of the person saying it or the forum in which it was posted.

Re: A Science in the Shadows

#30

Post by throwawaysea »

feral wrote: post #15

The idea that we do gain of function research in urban areas is mind boggling to me. If someone told you they were working on experimental nuclear warheads, you'd think they were crazy if their lab was in a city. But they experiment with dangerous pathogens in cities of millions of people, and the janitors go home to their families every evening. I don't know whether covid escaped from a lab, and I don't know whether…

It’s also not solely about the lab design. The people and the processes matter. In fact that’s one of the key issues with WIV - they performed GoF with SARS like coronaviruses at a lab with undertrained staff that didn’t understand safety protocols. This was documented by the Washington Post’s Josh Rogin before lab leak theory became a political football, and was known to the US state department a few years ago: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin...
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