Climate change will alter where many crops are grown • Hacker News Board

Re: Climate change will alter where many crops are grown

#91

Post by yosito » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 1:11 PM UTC

spython wrote: post #58

Landscapes are migrating faster than ever in times of the Anthropocene. They have never been static, but instead moving, mutating and transforming. Only now their migration is greatly accelerated by climate change and other anthropogenic factors. To complicate things even more, we currently lack a good concept of migration that could be used to describe the migration of landscapes. Even in great old stories of migrat…

> Only now their migration is greatly accelerated

Just curious, do you have data that backs up this claim?

Re: Climate change will alter where many crops are grown

#92

Post by lotsofpulp » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 1:11 PM UTC

qqqwerty wrote: post #26

arthurcolle wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much was the parcel if you don't mind sharing? I've had similar thoughts regarding Miami near-floodplain real estate - buying land that might hypothetically become the "new coast" based on projections for sea levels over the next 20, 30 years. Obviously a long shot in terms of ROI but I mean the apparent recent increase in hurricanes in those coastal areas in terms of both intensity and frequency is palpable...

I would avoid coastal communities. Wealthy beachfront owners will likely find a way to socialize their losses, either by getting taxpayers to fund coastal armoring or via direct bailouts. Alternatively there is the risk that property in those areas becomes uninsurable and by proxy unbankable. Hard to predict which way it goes, probably will depend on the individual community. Probably better to buy cheap arable land…

> Wealthy beachfront owners will likely find a way to socialize their losses, either by getting taxpayers to fund coastal armoring or via direct bailouts. Alternatively there is the risk that property in those areas becomes uninsurable and by proxy unbankable.

This is not hard to predict because it has already happened for decades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Flood_Insurance_Progr...

It is not just about wealth though, Florida is (or was) a swing state with a ton of votes for the president, and has only increased in political influence. Politically, it is going to near impossible to stop federal taxpayer funded bailouts for them.

Re: Climate change will alter where many crops are grown

#93

Post by rfrey » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 1:14 PM UTC

yabatopia wrote: post #62

stavros wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, you know, if someone gives you a nice toy and you break it, maybe you don't deserve it.

But in this case, his parents broke the toy, not him.

Every generation thinks things would be different if they had been in charge.

Re: Climate change will alter where many crops are grown

#94

Post by masklinn » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 1:19 PM UTC

bobbytit wrote: post #87

masklinn wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example, Tomato growers keep co2 levels greater than 1500 ppm in their greenhouses and their tomatoes are very nutricious. I would expect because the greenhouse environment (and scale) lets them have much better control over the plant's intake requirements (also likely better oversight). That would not be an easy thing to manage in fields. It's like comparing a small group of professional athletes with an entir…

A plant in the field can only take advantage of the extra co2 if there is adequate inputs but it does not do the plant harm if not. It would be like giving a city as much food as they want irrespective of individual need.

> A plant in the field can only take advantage of the extra co2 if there is adequate inputs but it does not do the plant harm if not.

Sure, but the nutritional issue with plants is generally with macronutrients the plant itself doesn't need, or at least not at the concentrations we'd prefer.

Furthermore your assertion is not true, like pretty much everything else that lives plants will absolutely gorge themselves as long as they don't otherwise have limits on their ability to do so, even if it harms them. It's very rare for organisms to have evolutionary limits on that as they'll either be constrained (either by the food source or by an external threat of some sort) or living under boom-and-bust cycles (whether naturally or because humans have removed the external threat, very common in game animals and rodents).

Re: Climate change will alter where many crops are grown

#95

Post by spython » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 1:22 PM UTC

yosito wrote: post #91

spython wrote: post #58

Landscapes are migrating faster than ever in times of the Anthropocene. They have never been static, but instead moving, mutating and transforming. Only now their migration is greatly accelerated by climate change and other anthropogenic factors. To complicate things even more, we currently lack a good concept of migration that could be used to describe the migration of landscapes. Even in great old stories of migrat…

> Only now their migration is greatly accelerated Just curious, do you have data that backs up this claim?

How do you imagine such data to be formatted? Landscape and ecological niches are hard to quantify, as they are so permeable and often lack clear borders. Not easy to put them into an excel spreadsheet.

I find this article on the topic really helpful: https://placesjournal.org/article/landscape-migration/

And the project by the same author quite inspiring: http://www.resilientbayarea.org/unlock-alameda-creek

Re: Climate change will alter where many crops are grown

#96

Post by BoHerfIIIJrEsq » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 1:23 PM UTC

yellow_lead wrote: post #64

grecy wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no, it doesn't get cold enough to hurt them anymore

That's pretty sad - that the climate has changed that much. I am glad he is enjoying them, I wish it were on better terms.

Well, hang on. Which was the correct climate? At various times, the planet has apparently completely encased itself in ice and then thawed itself out. According to the climate historian Scotese, the average temperature has varied between 10C and 25C for two billion years. "Recently" it's been about as cold as it ever gets. Is it actually sad that it's warming up? What was it supposed to do, stay cold forever or get even colder? http://scotese.com/climate.htm

Re: Climate change will alter where many crops are grown

#97

Post by TeMPOraL » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 1:32 PM UTC

option wrote: post #45

TeMPOraL wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This does not conflict with trying to slow it. It can, though, so we need to be super careful. It's basic human social dynamics: once someone starts making money from mitigating a problem, they become invested in perpetuating (or even worsening) the problem. When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. But when your lemonade stand starts raking in serious cash, you suddenly want to make sure everyone is being giv…

this can be said about pretty much everything

Yes. Doesn't make it any less true. On the contrary, realizing this lets one understand many peculiarities of the civilization we live in.

Re: Climate change will alter where many crops are grown

#98

Post by bobbytit » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 1:36 PM UTC

bobbytit wrote: post #87

masklinn wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example, Tomato growers keep co2 levels greater than 1500 ppm in their greenhouses and their tomatoes are very nutricious. I would expect because the greenhouse environment (and scale) lets them have much better control over the plant's intake requirements (also likely better oversight). That would not be an easy thing to manage in fields. It's like comparing a small group of professional athletes with an entir…

A plant in the field can only take advantage of the extra co2 if there is adequate inputs but it does not do the plant harm if not. It would be like giving a city as much food as they want irrespective of individual need.

Photosynthesis is limited by the availability of light, water and co2. They can't gorge without sufficient amounts if all three. At what point did they remove photosynthesis from the curriculum?

Re: Climate change will alter where many crops are grown

#99

Post by ajuc » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 1:38 PM UTC

hansel_der wrote: post #34

88840-8855 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are growing watermelons for years in our garden in Germany. And how does this fit to the fact that Germany has the coldest year for a long time? edit: wtf are you downvoting? Dumb af, look up the figures.

just because it's possible does not imply that it's viable at a commercial scale. i guess the point was, that this has changed. likewise the average temperature over the year does not neccesarily depict climate in the vegetation period.

Yup. Similarly my parents grow 1 grape bush for 3 decades already and make wine out of it each year, but it's a hobby, it wasn't commercially viable till a few years ago.

There were less than 20 wineyards in Poland in 2000 and none in 1990, now there's almost 500.

Re: Climate change will alter where many crops are grown

#100

Post by maxerickson » Sat, Aug 28, 2021, 1:42 PM UTC

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #7

yellow_lead wrote: post #2

I couldn't read the whole article, but this has already started with crops more sensitive to climate - namely grapes for wine.

20 years ago, I don’t think you could make wine in Wisconsin. Today, Wisconsin wine is total garbage. I am morbidly curious about what it tastes like in another 20.

My parents experimented with making wine from grapes grown in the UP in the 80s.

That's different than commercial viability of course, but the vines thrived even then.